FAO MR ORSENKAHT

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by Thurnscoe red, Mar 24, 2019.

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  1. Tyk

    Tyketical Masterstroke Well-Known Member

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    Anyone at Aintree? I'm there for the Thursday and Friday...
     
    Tyketical Masterstroke, Mar 27, 2019
    #21
  2. Stephen Dawson

    Stephen Dawson Well-Known Member

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    I've just been trawling through the form of the principals in the Cammidge Trophy. Arbalet has some very useful form and James Doyle booked, Equilateral initially caught my eye due it's romp at Doncaster last spring. It did finish in front of Invincible Army at Newbury. However, that day Invincible Army got a shocker of a ride and never saw daylight.

    I'm leaning more towards Arbalet now.
     
    Stephen Dawson, Mar 27, 2019
    #22
  3. Stephen Dawson

    Stephen Dawson Well-Known Member

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    So glad I haven't backed anything ante-post for the national yet. The weights are going up 4lb because Bristol De Mai has pulled out. Tiger Roll now has to carry 11st 5.

    Anibale Fly is the new top weight at 11st 10.
     
    Stephen Dawson, Mar 27, 2019
    #23
  4. loy

    loyal tyke mb Well-Known Member

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    Ruby Walsh has a tough choice to make but suggested he may ride Pair of Browneyes when interviewed on Racing Uk yesterday.
     
    loyal tyke mb, Mar 27, 2019
    #24
  5. Fon

    Fonzie Well-Known Member

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    5 out of the last 10 winners of the National carried 11st or more, so it shouldn't be a problem. He's unbackable at that price though.
     
    Fonzie, Mar 27, 2019
    #25
  6. Stephen Dawson

    Stephen Dawson Well-Known Member

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    Interesting stats. I didn't realise it was that many. I still like horses 11 stone or less. Back to the drawing board for me.
     
    Stephen Dawson, Mar 27, 2019
    #26
  7. Fon

    Fonzie Well-Known Member

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    To be fair it's only a recent new trend. It used to be the case that a nice low weight was a must, but since the handicapper has taken it upon himself to let the classier horses in off reduced marks then it's given them an advantage.

    Don't Push it, Neptune Collonges, Many Clouds (RIP) were all 11st 5 or more. It's only a matter of time before a top weight wins.
     
    Fonzie, Mar 27, 2019
    #27
    Stephen Dawson likes this.
  8. Stephen Dawson

    Stephen Dawson Well-Known Member

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    Maybe so. Anibale Fly has the form in the book. He just seems to find one or two a bit better at times. Mall Dini's owner reckons if Tiger Roll gets a clear run out wide and stays out of trouble it wins.

    My revised 6 are: Rathvinden, Rock The Kasbah, Warrior's Tale, Regal Encore, Jury Duty and Up for Review.
     
    Stephen Dawson, Mar 27, 2019
    #28
  9. Thu

    Thurnscoe red Member

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    Tomorrow at 11 o’clock it’s the draw for the Lincoln
    What would you be happy with low or high or middle for Auxerre ??
     
    Thurnscoe red, Mar 27, 2019
    #29
  10. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Since 2014 the winners have been drawn 3, 15, 22, 20, and last year, 10. So I guess on that basis I'd hope for mid to high.

    Truth be told though, I'm not one for worrying too much about the effect of the draw. The hope is always that your selection has enough in hand to come through, whatever stall he's given. I think of Frankie winning the Arc on Golden Horn from the outside, or Muntahaa in last year's Ebor. Let's hope the Doyler can get the beast home wherever he's berthed.
     
    orsenkaht, Mar 28, 2019
    #30
    Stephen Dawson likes this.
  11. Stephen Dawson

    Stephen Dawson Well-Known Member

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    Just had £20 quid on Auxerre at 7/2. Hope it still runs now. Only backed it early because it's forecast to be the shortest price favourite for a good few years according to Mike Cattermole and Alex Hammond.
     
    Stephen Dawson, Mar 28, 2019
    #31
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  12. Thu

    Thurnscoe red Member

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    Auxerre is drawn 17
     
    Thurnscoe red, Mar 28, 2019
    #32
  13. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Donjuan Triumphant not declared for the Cammidge, so I think I'd revert to Invincible Army. He comes with some question marks but is 3/1 with Bet365, which makes some allowance. Sharja Bridge looks likely for the Listed Mile, but is odds on with the same firm.
     
    orsenkaht, Mar 28, 2019
    #33
  14. Stephen Dawson

    Stephen Dawson Well-Known Member

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    I've had a tenner win on Invincible Army at 3's decided that last run at Newbury was too bad to be true. Fancy something left field in the Listed Mile Red Starlight. I've dropped a bollock backing Auxerre ante-post it's 7/2 BPG with Corals now. You live n' learn.
     
    Stephen Dawson, Mar 28, 2019
    #34
  15. Thu

    Thurnscoe red Member

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    Mr Dawson
    Auxerre is way to short at 7/2 for a handicap like the Lincoln ..
    I am going to take it on with SOUTH SEA and KYNREN
     
    Thurnscoe red, Mar 28, 2019
    #35
  16. Stephen Dawson

    Stephen Dawson Well-Known Member

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    The horse doesn't know what price it is though. We will see. I hope you're wrong but if you win money's better in your pocket than the bookies. Best of luck mate.
     
    Stephen Dawson, Mar 28, 2019
    #36
  17. Thu

    Thurnscoe red Member

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    Best of luck to you or anyone else who’s backs Auxerre it’s all down to opinions
     
    Thurnscoe red, Mar 28, 2019
    #37
  18. Thu

    Thurnscoe red Member

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    Well done mr Orsenkaht
    Tipping Auxerre to win the Lincoln very impressive as well.and well done to you getting 10/1 anti post
    Ps Timeform also got the flat season off to a good start with 2 points on Invincible Army
     
    Thurnscoe red, Mar 30, 2019
    #38
  19. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Cheers, Thurnscoe. It was a pretty good day - I also had three in the Brocklesby, including the winner and managed to find two (from three bets) in Dubai. Safe to say it is one of the best Flat opening days I've had. Normally the first day is a time to tread with caution but these days the real big guns are able to get their horses as fit as they like for their seasonal debuts. When you add in going and weather you'd associate more with the St Leger meeting it can make for happy punting!

    It's noticeable how so many of the better handicaps are falling to Group standard horses masquerading as handicappers. The days of a Lincoln winner striking at 33/1 from the bottom of the handicap appear well and truly over. And what a trainer Charlie Appleby is becoming. I wasn't sure what to make of him when he first started out but his results in the last 12 months (admittedly with very handy ammunition) make him a serious contender for the best trainer in the world at the moment.

    Country (2.35) looks very interesting on debut at Donny today, and I also like Ryan Moore's mounts in the 3.45 (Red Verdon) and 4.20 (Shareef Star).
     
    orsenkaht, Mar 31, 2019
    #39
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  20. Stephen Dawson

    Stephen Dawson Well-Known Member

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    Great minds think alike. I've backed Country n' Shareef Star.
     
    Stephen Dawson, Mar 31, 2019
    #40
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