GE October 15th

Well we'll see soon enough won't we.

 

thanks.

 

Legally advisory referendums (however politically binding) are there to gauge the mood of the public. There is absolutely nothing in the terms of the referendum Act 2015 to make it legally binding. In fact, the governments own QC admitted in court that if it was legally binding, the overspending would have seen it overturned under the rules of the Venice Convention.

Cameron made it politically binding, but he had no legal basis to do so.

 

I

parliament havnt ignored the referendum they voted to invoke article fifty so wrong on that one to start.
The debates in Parliament are not to thwart Brexit but how we leave so wrong in that one .
And it doesn’t matter how you interpret the above the facts are there .
The reason there’s debates on how we leave or whether another referendum should be taken or we should revoke article fifty is because a **** shower of a govt hadn’t a clue what to do once the result was secured and they had as many differeing views on his we should leave as did the whole of Parliament .
If they had had a clear and present plan when they secured the vote none of this would have been able to happen .

 

Labour, through an ill-informed but co-ordinated media campaign, have become pretty toxic to many. Of that there is no doubt. However, what they do rather well is mobilise younger voters - see the last GE for this. Two years on, with 2 years' worth of new voters now registered, and 2 years' worth of the older demographic shuffled off, it would not surprise me one bit to see them go close again, if not one better.

 

Parliament didn't vote to trigger A50. They voted to allow the PM to trigger A50. A small, but significant difference.

 

Can’t see the significance tbh but whatever ,
They didn’t vote to not allow the prime minister to invoke it , ill put it that way .

 

theres no significance there scoff as its the PM who has to pull the trigger so to speak

if there is/was any significance then its from someone who is trying to find anything possible to stop brexit

 

you've made it perfectly clear scoff about referendum being non legally binding, so could you tell me how better the referendum could have been presented.. this legally binding argument is just another tactic to try and rubbish the referendum, nothing more and nothing less.. All the political leaders to us the result would be definitive and would be acted upon

 

Basically I agree....where it will really count though is in the marginal, where I think it will come down to who if anyone is prepared to stand candidates down in an electoral pact, but perhaps more significantly those that are not traditional marginal, but could be considered marginal in view of the leave/remain split.
South Yorkshire's Labour seats certainly fit into that category....looking at Doncaster..
The Remain vote which I have included Labour in ( not strictly true I accept) combined polled 23,674, the leave vote which I have included the Tories in polled a combined 42,916.
Not far off 1-2..I'm pretty sure Labour's core will turn out much heavier in a GE but it could make Ed Miliband and Rosie Winterton's seats very close calls, particularly if the Lib Dem's and Green Party stand.
Rotherham and Barnsley results were a broadly similar split.

 

I've tried to figure out which way it's going to fall but it makes my head hurt.
I notice that 200,00 new voters have registered in the last 72 hours. Over half of them under 35. Make of that what you will.

 

It all comes down to the stupid binary question. If you'd have got 6 Leave voters in a room the day before the vote and asked them what was motivating them to vote Leave - you'd have got 3 different answers. If you'd then asked them what kind of Leave they wanted - you'd have got 4 or 5 different answers. The Leave campaign actually did this on purpose in order to gain the widest following.

But pointing that out has always been enough to get labelled a 'remoaner'. The simple fact is - the way it's been handled, there's no 'right outcome'; the Leave camp have done a great job of blaming everyone but themselves though - so it's my fault that we haven't left - but JRM who has campaigned to leave for years hasn't supported the Leave decision in any meaningful way. Point that out and it's because May wasn't really a Leaver - or the EU are being difficult, or Remoaners, traitors etc.

It's utter b0ll0x - the Leavers have made a decision and have no idea how to enact it - or what they want enacting it will actually achieve. But rather than accept it's difficult - they just blame everyone else.

 

Welcome to populism. The voice to highlight all the perceived ills of the world... without any idea or desire to solve them.

 

Haha...brainache....I've had it for ages now!!
I can see the Greens potentially standing aside and concentrating on their most realistic hopes but I have the feeling that the Lib Dems might just think they're in a position to become a far more significant party and as such will contest everywhere...a couple of defectors and a bye election win might for them, reinforce this view.
The Tories though could take advantage of the Lib Dems taking enough of the Labour vote to let them in in some areas, but have themselves the proverbial elephant to deal with in the Brexit Party in others. To me it will hang largely on Farage, if he overestimates support for the Brexit Party ( and support for no deal)and contests everywhere it could be a disaster night for the Tories...and probably the end of hopes to leave the EU.
If he plays to gain a majority leave Parliament and doesn't contest the Tories marginals he could give the Tories a leg up....if he thinks the Brexit Party is a serious national force and contests everywhere, my view is that he will get a sizeable percentage of the vote without having enough seats to influence much at all.

 

I think Stephen Kinnocks amendment of bringing the May bill back might have an impact on the Tory/Brexit party relationship tbh .
It’s like an hand grenade between them as the Brexit party will not go for that deal which they said they hated and the Tories will probably campaign on it if it passes as at least it gets us out (their view) so the Brexit party will scupper them by contesting seats .

 

its just my opinion SB but i reckon the brexit party may well only contest in the really strong leave areas, where some of the biggest margins were traditional labour areas, their money would be wasted in remain wards and in all honesty i think may well be wasted in most leave wards, like you i suspect they wont manage to win enough seats, indeed,if any.

 

Marlon...I just don't know what to make of the Kinnock Amendment...on the one hand it seems like a reasonable solution for those of us who are prepared to take a soft Brexit...and like you say a grenade to ERG types, but after a bit of spotlight it seems to being forgotten about.

 

That would be the sensible way to go about it Dek, but listening to Farage I'm not so sure that's what he'll do.

 

Sorry but the debates in parliament are all about overturning the result, look at that video footage that appeared on social media with Keir Starmer preaching to a room of people that 'Whatever deal the government comes back with they will oppose it' I simply do not trust them. These last 3 years have all about reversing the decision for the majority of MP's..

But I stick to my original comment. It would be scandalous for them to now want another referendum in their manifesto rather than nailing the party line as a party of leave or remain. Anything else is just looking to steal votes with a false promise because it would again alienate half of the voters.

Wonder if Dan might feel safer not standing and putting all his efforts into the mayor role, based on the leave % in Barnsley.

 

I’ve given up on trying to make heads or tales of anything about Brexit as far as that goes SB .
It is a strange one the Kinnock amendment I must admit but I can see why it could cause mischief among the two party’s.
Although it is a mess I think it could be the end of the beginning and movement one way or another will get under way .
Imo I’d like the bill along with remain put to a binding vote but can see why some won’t want that .
At first I was a very strong remainer but can see the opposition to that and that’s why I believe in the second ref as the only way to heal (if that’s the right phrase which it probably isn’t ) this with any sort of finality .
Although remain or leave this will never go away .