Boris Press conference

They said 80% was worst case scenario, not likely

 

eh?

 

That's assuming a 1% mortality rate. 3.4% is the latest figure I heard for predictions.

 

I think people should be encouraged to work from home as a minimum at the moment. Virologists are saying close confines are major problems for extended periods of time, which is why a cruise ship is more dangerous than a rush hour tube ride.

As for schools etc, that obviously has a knock on effect on the doctors and nurses with children and their ability to work. It has to be balanced out. If the scientists are saying we are 3 1/2 months away from hitting the peak, keeping the kids off for that long etc just isnt sustainable- they are saying a lockdown wouldnt achieve anything otherwise. Who is going to stock the shelves and produce the food etc? Its not as simple as some are making out. If we go into lockdown it has to be at the right time. They are saying it is too soon yet. We will have to wait and see. What I do know is that they know a lot more than anyone on here so I will have to trust that they are doing the right thing.

 

Daughter came home today and said Schools are looking at extending Easter hols as an option.

 

I think they have been given some advice regarding potential scenarios such as these home learning packs. It will happen eventually but probably not until May/ June (unless they get it horribly wrong of course!)

 

Public exams time! Feel sorry for year 11s & 13s.

 

What there saying here is exploring which children have access to internet learning and considering finishing next Friday until after Easter, which will give them 4 weeks off in total.

 

Yeah agree, had same conversation with my daughter who is in them

 

Problem with doing that is that they will potentially end up having even more time off when this thing peaks. Id be surprised if they go against what was announced earlier.

 

I agree can’t imagine they will go against government advice as they are too obsessed with attendance records, but that is what they are working towards.
Guessing that is the target date and worst case scenario if not implemented they are ready for if and when.

 

I think to a large extent, there are likely to be decisions being made around the world by leaders that are based around the pressure they are under from their population to be seen to be doing something. No-one knows who is right at the moment. I do think there are some measures we should have taken that haven't been but broadly I am supportive of the approach we have taken so far.

I think Ireland have gone far too early on schools closures. They are fewer cases than us and are therefore probably a week or more behind us in the curve. Almost certainly they are going to have to do it again.

 

Absolutely fair comments Loko. Agree about clarity required for the public. The mortality rate will be a fluid figure for several weeks, potentially months, as more and more cases are identified and increase. But conversely there will have been, and will continue to be, cases where an individual has the virus and has symptoms so subtle its barely noticeable so it never gets picked up. The infectious disease / virology institutions work this variation into their calculations when reflecting on epidemics etc, but the current headline figure is something around 3.4% death rate from known cases worldwide, with much variation between countries. But statistically, as more cases are identified, the likelihood is that the rate will fall, on the reasonable assumption that more people will get CV19 and survive rather than it prove fatal for them.

It's also hard to argue against the view of preparing for the worst case scenario, which I think the 80% figure relates to.

The delay tactic, rather than containing, also has the potential to allow some herd immunity to develop which may also reduce the mortality rate. By comparison, influenza has a mortality rate of 1% or less, this probably reflects immunity from the herd approach and vaccination.

I can genuinely see the broad range of opinions on this, working in health care, we're getting updates daily. What I'm not as sure about is whether earlier proactive action would have had an impact or not. The public health clinician on Question Time certainly holds the view that it would.

Its one thing that I'm genuinely open to having my knowledge updated and views changed on an almost daily basis!

 

I'm not correct. I haven't made a decision. Our scientists have presented their case and our government have followed their advice and made a decision. I listened with interest. It all sounded logical to me. Arguments were presented, reasons given, using the science of the study of epidemics to illustrate their reasoning. I've also read and listened to what other countries have said and done, which wasn't presented in the same way, which did not reference epidemiology in the same way we have, where, in my opinion, decisions were made in fear, not with rationale. I have confidence in the scientific community in my country and I'm pleased our government have followed their advice and it makes a lot more sense to me than what many others countries have done.

 

I'm just coming up to my 71st birthday and I'm in good health. Quit smoking 17 years ago and no longer drink alcohol, go to the gym four times a week. However, there are things I can do to avoid getting infected, as I live alone, and part time work I do can be done online. So I have begun social distancing. I've stopped going to the gym - dragged out my old exercise bike and weights to work out at home, plus bike rides outside on my own. I cancelled a holiday to Thailand. Stopped going to interest groups and out with relatives. Hand washing and I don't touch surfaces if at all possible, and wash my hands. Still going to the supermarket for essentials... I can keep in touch with friends and relatives by phone and on social media...I will still be going to Oakwell however. I'm the one in the mask....