Cheltenham.

1.30 Faugheen
2.10 Sire du Berlais ew
2.50 A Plus Tard
3.30 Penhill ew
4.10 Spiritofthegames ew
4.40 Minella Melody
5.30 Fitzhenry ew

 

Hiya all gud luk for rest of Cheltenham lost day 1/2, but i've followed this fella for a while each/way MIDNIGHT SHADOW, PAYING 4 PLACES.

Snow Falcon ten past 4 should av a squeeek

 

WOW

well done

 

Cheers mate

 

Full of ***** thee granty

 

Picking nags out is difficult enough. At Cheltenham its worse. Excellent effort!

 

Cheltenham Day One 1 win from 7 (2/1) -4 points
Cheltenham DayTwo 4 wins from 6 (4/7, 4/1, 5/1, 15/2) and one non-runner +15 points (Cumulative: +11 points)
Cheltenham Day Three 1 win from 7 (2/1) -4 points (Cumulative +7 points)

Great to see Samcro return to the top table and Faugheen, at the age of 12 only half a length behind in third. Sire Du Berlais was another terrific training performance by Gordon Elliot in the Pertemps Final and Min was pure class in winning the Ryanair. It shows how hard it is to win at Cheltenham when you consider that returning champions Frodon, Paisley Park, Siruh Du Lac and A Plus Tard were all beaten. A fantastic day's racing, even given that this is arguably the weakest of the four days (I'm very much against diluting the Festival to five days, but that's another story). And let's be grateful that we have got through this edition of the Festival at all given the advance of the lurgy back in the real world. Anyway, onwards and upwards: Gold Cup Day tomorrow.

Cheltenham Day Four

1.30 Solo
2.10 Ciel De Neige
2.50 Thyme Hill
3.30 Al Boum Photo
4.10 Minella Rocco
4.50 Greaneteen
5.30 Column Of Fire

 

A WAVE AT THE SEA 1.30 Cheltenham.

 

My strongest fancy for today is for no racing to take place.

Don't think there'll be much of a price though.

 

Pretty good week for you I would say so far, here's a question though.

Do you always back those at the head of the market? Out of the 7 you've put up above, 5 are favourite and 2 are second favourite. Do you ever seek out anything at bigger prices?

I know it's different strokes for different folks and an even money winner is better than a 10/1 loser and all that, I was just intrigued.

 

1.30 Solo win. Sir Pyscho E/W Cerberus E/W
2.10 St Roi E/W Ciel De Neige E/W Elusive Belle E/W
2.50 Thyme Hill win. Janidil E/W
3.30 Santini win. Clan Des Obeaux E/W
4.10 Minella Rocco win. Billaway E/W
4.50 Granetean win. Capeland E/W
5.30 Front View win. Five O' Clock E/W

Last two days scattergun approach backing horses I've backed over course of season with size of fields and places being a factor. Also the quality of horse hasn't been as good as the first two days and they take more picking.

I perm my bets into 20p win and Each way Lucky 15's. The singles have most been £1 E/W or £10 stakes on the 3.30 Championship races.

I've banked £100 so far but am not that much up.

 

Very, very good question, Fonzie. One short answer is no, not always. I've tried to post just one selection for each race on here this week for interest, although I may have had two, three or even four bets in some of the more competitive races. But to keep things simple I've posted what I felt was the likeliest winner. For the Supreme (Day One, Race One) for example I posted Asterion Forlonge on here, which I considered the likeliest winner on the day of the race and which I backed. But I had also backed Shishkin at 14/1 for this race in January after I saw it win at Newbury in fairly striking style. However on Tuesday it was only available at much shorter odds and didn't represent anything like the same value, so I didn't see the merit in posting that one up.

The key to it all is 'value', i.e. does the horse in question have a better percentage chance of winning than it's odds would imply? In general, I can back horses at all sorts of odds, but my aim is to play around the 2/1 mark on average. That is a nice simple figure to work with, because it means that to succeed in the long run I must win in about 33% of the races I play in. If the average price obtained about my winners is 2/1 or better then I make a profit long term. A price of 9/4 suggests that a horse has roughly a 31% chance of winning, so if I get that price and my strike rate is 33% I'm in front. Since I finished work in 2013 and have had more time to devote to an interest which fascinates me, I have backed (up to yesterday) in 7,700 races altogether, and had the winners of 2,427 of them, which represents a strike rate of roughly 32%. The average price of the winners I obtained in this time has been around that 9/4 mark, or 31% in percentage terms, which means that I have been in profit across that time span. That of course is a very narrow margin, but it has been enough to ensure I obtained a 2.7% return on the total stakes invested across this period. The reality is that if you were to do too much better than that you would soon run out of bookmakers who were prepared to deal with you. So it's all about strike rate v. percentage return, and the former must exceed the latter. It's nice to have winners at 10/1 or 16/1 (and I do!), but even if successful in that type of price range you will go longer between winners. At my 32-33% strike rate I can expect to win every three races on average, although it goes without saying that you still need the form interpretation skills to pick out the right selections. Cash flow is as important in betting as in any other business, and that level of strike rate keeps the till ringing! As someone once said, you can score well in singles - you don't have to hit every ball to the boundary!

One other consideration is that at meetings like Cheltenham the favourites are generally favourites for good reason. The form is well-established and at the higher level, more reliable. Cheltenham races are bet on from the start of the jumps season proper in October, so come Festival time the pecking order is pretty well determined, and more of my selections are likely to have gone to the head of the market - even if they didn't start out there! Hope this is of interest!

 

I adopt a similar system myself. Although when it comes to Festivals I save up because it feels like a kick in bo llocks if I've backed a horse all season and it wins and I wasn't on it.

 

I like to get a few crafty ante post ones in the book, Mr D. That's more enticing these days as most of the bookies are going non-runner no bet from quite a way out.

I've been keen on Greaneteen for the Grand Annual (4.50) and still am. But quite a few shrewd judges have pointed to Chosen Mate of Gordon Elliot's, who looks to have been smuggled into the race on a good mark despite his very good hurdles form! Will have to ponder that one, as it would make it an odds on race for me!

Gold Cup thoughts: I don't think anything in the field has matched the form of Al Boum Photo's Tramore run, and just like last year that has been his only race in the run up to this. But it was hard not to be struck by Paul Nicholls' glee after Politologue's win on Wednesday, because he felt he had treated Clan Des Obeaux similarly to that one in his prep for today's event. Paddy goes 10/3 and 8's, so that would give you 2.9/1 for the two combined (34% chance).

The other thing that has struck me about the Gold Cup market is the price of Monalee, at 25/1. This one was only a head behind Delta Work in the Savill's Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, yet Delta Work is best-priced 5/1. Henry de Bromhead's horses could hardly be in better form and it's a story you can just see waiting to be written: "first female jockey wins the Gold Cup!" (Which is wrong of course - she is just a bloody good jockey!)

 

That's very interesting to be honest- and if something works for you, then you continue - you don't change your successful method just because some joker on a football forum says so. If you see at horse at 6/4 and you think it should be an odds on shot, then it's still value

Fair play on Shishkin - I'm in a similar boat with Thyme Hill today, had a nice price since last Autumn.

I've had two lovely ante post winners this week - Samcro at 16s and Put The Kettle On at 25s. It's just a shame that I'd backed Samcro for the Arkle and Put The Kettle On for the novice handicap!

Good luck today chaps and chapesses- here's my darts.

1.30 - Cerebus
2.10 - Elusive Belle
2.50 - Thyme Hill
3.30 - Delta Work
4.10 - No interest
4.50 - Us And Them
5 30 - Umbrigado

 

Should say on that note Fonzie that I had to back Shishkin for the Ballymore as well as he was entered in both!

 

Cerebus' last run behind Almankind at Chepstow was too bad to be true yet Almankind was 4's and Cerebus 16's after one poor run?

 

But Barry picks A Wave Of The Sea?

 

That run in Ireland was bizarre. Aspire Tower falls with Cerebus upside, then Cerebus pulls himself up when he gets in front too soon- with Wave Of Sea finishing like Champ the other day.

I hope Goshen/Aspire/Mankind all set off like Frankel in the Guineas and my lad sits and waits.

 

I still can't believe racing goes ahead today with everything else getting cancelled. Bizarre.