These are the options

I get that that's the usual way it works. Maybe it will in this case too. There doesn't seem to be any other government in the world though that have been actively discussing deliberately exposing the bulk of the population to develop herd immunity.

 

Because without a vaccine it's ******* stupid.

 

I bet they have behind closed doors though. That doesn't mean it's the right option but I bet they have discussed it at quite a serious level.

 

You'd hope so. But as yet none have pursued it.

 

No it isn't. You don't agree with it, that's all. I do, as do many experts in the field. Many don't, but just as many do.

 

Because they will lose power if they do. People believe action should be taken. They have made up their mind what should be done and will hold the government responsible if they don't do that.

 

It's stupid, bordering on criminally negligent to purposely infect people with a virus that nobody knows almost anything about. In my opinion, of course.

 

Its certainly not stupid. It is probably unethical.

 

It's not purposefully infecting people, it's allowing a virus to run its course.

A decision was made last week based purely on scientific advice. It has since been scrapped, based purely on political pressure from people who don't have the same scientific knowledge. So we're now 'tackling' this epidemic politically not scientifically, which really is stupid.

 

That last sentence is just completely untrue.

The original scientific advice was based on the trends of viral pneumonia, not COVID-19, despite the data from other countries being available.

The new advice is from the same scientists and data analysts, but is now based on COVID-19 trends from both this country so far and from other countries.

 

No it isn't. You've consistently agreed you're not an expert on the subject, yet you've campaigned on this BBS for more to be done, that the initial response was wrong, posted articles that have spread fear. Millions of others have done the same in their social circles and the government have bowed down to that political pressure.

 

Additionally, It is purposely infecting people if something could be done to stop it, that isn't.

Call it what you want, it's the same result.

The only way out of this is a prolonged suppression strategy with UBI in place for all adults. I have no idea how that will work - but that's the only way out of this, in my opinion.

 

No, I'm not an expert, but yes, I campaigned for more to be done. I have been following these trends in other countries for weeks. I felt that the government weren't doing enough, based purely on what I had been watching happen elsewhere.
I didn't realise at the time that the government data was based on viral pneumonia, but that is the reason the original advice was 'wrong'. Viral Pneumonia has a much lower percentage of patients needing critical care, meaning that the original trends had the hospitals filling up much slower than the reality is showing.

 

MT Seeing As you are living in Russia what is happening with the virus over there.We don’t seem to be getting any reports
if they have it.Dont be telling us though if it means you will be thrown in the Goolag

 

It's being under-reported so far from what I can see, but certainly there is no panic buying. Yet. A lot of people are switching to working from home though, and the ruble has lost 25% against the dollar, mostly due to the oil crash. Why does Russia have so few cases? Well, there are a few theories, from poor testing meaning fewer confirmed cases, to the low population density meaning that the spread has been slow. But I genuinely can't see huge cities like Moscow or St Petersburg escaping an epidemic.

 

We’ll know so much more in a few weeks when we see what happens in China.

They have almost completely suppressed it, but if they release the suppression there’s the risk it will just rebound. Either way they will have to make a decision sooner or later, and that will inform the response of the rest of the world.

Either way it’s a really difficult decision. Is suppression / isolation effective, or are we delaying the inevitable whilst creating economic disaster? All we can do is wait, see what happens in China, gather more data, re-run the models and hopefully have a clearer idea in a few weeks time.

 

A tiny sliver of immunologists agree with you the vast majority think without a vaccine it’s a ridiculous idea.

 

Latest reports I've seen suggest around 15-20% of resolved cases get a secondary case - some other coronavirii have an immunity response, some don't.

Worldwide statistics currently show a ~4% mortality rate (9115 dead/222643 cases @11:51 on 19/3). Option 1 wouldn't just kill 250,000. To get herd immunity would require ~55% of the UK population = 36million cases at current infection rates, with 1% mortality rate that is 360,000 dead. With a 4% rate that is well upwards of 1million. The number requiring critical care would be upwards of 3.5 million people and hospitalisation double that. We don't have 7 million hospital beds - we've got under 170,000. So the mortality rates would be on the high side, not just from COVID, but from every other survivable illness or injury and without sufficient protective gear our health system would collapse completely.

The *only* option, is to reduce the spread of the disease, until a treatment is found (some promising drug regimes are already being tested), which we are too late with now. About a month too late. Deaths today will be 40-60 (new cases ~800-1000), tomorrow 50-100 (cases ~1000-1300), and increasing by 25-50% per day for the next fortnight *if we locked down today*.

This was known about in January, but our PM decided two weeks in Mustique was more important and MPs were crowdfunding for Big Ben to bong. Even when it was becoming apparent that it would be a major problem he delayed a COBRA meeting until after the weekend. The PM is still refusing to let the Health Secretary join the daily EU pandemic response call, and they are refusing to work with the EU to get more ventilators (even though they have offered to help us). They have ignored the data and help from China and the WHO because they know best - even though they modeled on Flu rather than diseases like SARS.

There will be an inquiry when this is over, and it is very likely that all concerned will not come out of it well.

 

EPIDEMIC, if we let it run its course, we will be overrun with sick, if we slow it as the boffins are saying then we could get to a position where the boffins can combat it, control it and hopefully beat it. I was one that thought initially let nature tek its course and see wot happens, I know now that's not the answer, 1/40 ish are dying 40million people 1 million dead, in the uk we would loose approx. 1.5 million plus, its fooookin scary. KEEP SAFE AND LOOK AFTER THE ELDER ONES IN THE FAMILY AND NAIGHBOURHOOD