Boris speech 20th March

Can’t see them maintaining it long term TBH, would imagine the plan will be to gradually decrease it over time

 

Which would make a lot of people homeless

 

society cant live like this, we will all crack up, I am struggling already and its only been a few days, does anyone else think we really will turn it around after 12 weeks like Boris said ?

 

Just a thought on this....

So in effect, you’re saying that you’re happy for us to do nothing and for an extra 100,000 dead? I’m not sure if I’ve read that right.? In effect nearly 5 full Oakwells dying? and that includes using all of the west stand and away end!

The “do nothing” scenario in my mind will accelerate the breakdown of social and economic systems. The rate of spread of this virus is insane. Are you happy for at least 80% of the population to spin that roulette wheel of contracting the virus in a very short space of time, and just saying if you “die you die “?

Our best chance in my opinion is to hope the virus mutates pretty quickly into a less dangerous strain. A virus regularly changes, as if not it will kill itself if it’s hosts all die too.

A plan of action is better than no plan in my opinion .

 

I wouldn’t call it a revelation.

The modelling doesn’t take into account people that would have died anyway. I know this and I knew this already. I don’t even know how you would begin to model that. I do hope they can find a way to do so, however. I will be very interested to see the method used and also the results.

It also doesn’t take into account people dying of other problems due to lack of care being available. Does it ‘even it out’? I have no idea. 163,000 people require ICU in England, Wales and Northern Ireland each year (data from the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence). If all the deaths in the ‘do nothing’ approach were to happen by august, that’s 6 months. So let’s say 80,000 people require ICU in that time for non COVID reasons. The likelihood is that almost all of those would die. How many of those would have died anyway, how many will die of COVID first, I agree it’s all Unknown’s.

In Italy, they have closed operating theatres to make space for more beds. How many life saving operations would be scrapped? I am unable to find the data on that, I will admit.

The only option is keeping the NHS under capacity. And yes, it is possible. By stopping people going out, there is likely to be a drop in the number of non COVID cases, also, let’s not forget. No drunk people that have fallen over, no drunken fights, less car accidents, all factors that haven’t been modelled, that will lead to less strain on hospitals.

The problem is the 2 week incubation period. We won’t know for 2 weeks whether the closures came early enough. My gut feeling is that they didn’t, unfortunately.

I genuinely don’t know what the right answer is. I’ve never claimed I do. All I’ve ever said is that my posts are based on looking at the scientific modelling and doing all I can to try and understand that data. What I do know is that doing nothing and letting this thing take hold doesn’t sit right with me at all. We have to at least try and do something, or what’s the ******* point?

 

There’s not going to be an ‘extra’ 100,000 dead though. The death rates they are quoting aren’t excess deaths - they’ve admitted that, many of them would have happened anyway. The guy who has stooped society, who has shut down our schools, put millions of livelihoods at risk, says he ‘doesn’t know’ actually how many deaths these actions are devised to prevent. He ‘doesn’t know’. Utterly, disgustingly shambolic.

 

But I think that’s partly my point mate. People have decided that inaction is unpalatable, we all want to feel like we’re doing something, not nothing, to try and make things better. I’m just saying that I think inadvertently the action taken is going to do far, far more harm than good in the long term.

Look at those death rates, from the latest BBC article. They’re already massively inflated as we know, as they don’t include all the many, many infections not diagnosed. Can you honestly tell me that healthy men and women shouldn’t be out doing their jobs and keeping the country going while at the same time taking careful measures to protect those who are at risk? That children should be taught to cower away, scared, instead of getting on with their education?

 

I keep reading this - it's utterly crass; the virus kills a very small percentage of it's hosts and I wouldn't be as daft as to give it a personality, but it's probably OK with it's current performance.

 

I'm not happy for anyone to die. I think far more people will die from what we're doing now long term.

Choosing to continue life if you're fit and healthy while attempting to protect those that are vulnerable and recruiting to the NHS is what I'd do. I've never advocated doing absolutely nothing, but this would be seen to be doing nothing by those who believe grand gestures are what is required. People believe something should be done, action should be taken, but simply refuse to contemplate the consequences of that action. Doing something is seen to be good, even if it is demonstrably stupid after following poor advice from bad data.

 

I'm sure that solution has been suggested.

 

Of course it has. By many, many sensible people.

 

Actually I’m talking about Jays assumptions, if you care to read his post. He said that the current measures would save another 100000, unless I’ve got the wrong end of the stick?

“The guy”... it’s happening around the globe! It’s not just Boris and pals. In the UK,the doors of schools have shut, but education continues.

You can’t quantify exactly an unprecedented event. It’s like you saying that you know the result of the next game that Barnsley play... you can follow models, but he’s right in saying that he doesn’t know the exact numbers of deaths and would be a fool to quantify that.

 

You've missed the point. He is giving figures on how many will die. He is quite happy to do that. What he's not giving is the number of those deaths that are above and beyond those that would have died anyway. This is something they do regularly with things like flu.

 

No it doesn’t. It does if you’re lucky to have nice, middle class parents who have the time and inclination to help and make an effort, and the money for the necessary equipment, and the intellectual capability to teach.

Our kids will be alright, but plenty won’t.

 

The game changer will be the antibody test. That will allow healthy people to reintegrate into society without endangering others.

 

And without those numbers, how can we go ahead with the most draconian government strategy in modern history? Here’s the flu ones, by the way - EXCESS deaths - not like the CV ones now ‘he had a massive heart attack but also had CV so we’ll count it’. And yes - that is 28000 EXTRA deaths specifically from flu in just one year just in the UK.

 

Well it may be, but it doesn’t have a brain, a personality, or a name. The nature of this virus is that it mutates quickly. If you care to read around the subject. I wasn’t saying that it decided, “Crap we’re killing everyone, let’s turn nice...”. Instead saying that virus are predisposed to change for this reason, and that they can’t replicate themselves as well as human cells.

So sorry for being crass, but here are some well renowned doctors take on it..

““The best case is that the virus mutates and actually dies out,” said Dr. Larry Brilliant, an epidemiologist who as a young doctor was part of the fight to eradicate smallpox. Brilliant was a consultant for the movie “Contagion,” in which a virus evolved to become more deadly, but that’s the exception. “Only in movies do viruses seem to become worse,” he explained. Two other lethal coronaviruses, SARS and MERS, both petered out, and that is possible here. “My hope is that Covid-19 will not survive,” said Dr. Charles G. Prober, a professor at Stanford Medical School.

 

Because politicians were going to lose power.

Boris' crass stupidity actually worked for us last week. He actually realised this thing was way above his level, handed it all over to science and said I'll agree with whatever you suggest. Scientists gave the press conference not politicians. It was a good strategy. Within a week it has been entirely scrapped. Why?

Because of the back lash. People wanted action and they wanted it now. And they began demanding it, on here and twitter and facebook. And the politicians thought, oh ****, loud people don't seem to like this. They're going to blame us. So political rather than scientific choices have been made and those who wanted us locked down have got their wish. Look at the opening message in this thread. "finally" Good grief.

 

You my friend are wrong. Nothing to do with class. Schools are to provide education still. Usually by internet classes, but if no internet available, plans are in place to get work to the needy.

 

On message boards and Facebook pages across the country after the world has been put to tights over their Wetherspoons table... I think I’d rather listen to doctors and experts on this.