Boris speech 20th March

People still crying party politics, when this is worldwide...?

 

Those were the sensible people I was talking about

 

Who all have political parties...

 

China?

 

I wish I was called Larry Brilliant

 

You’re absolutely wrong. As I’ve told you multiple times, the original science was based off viral pneumonia, rather than COVID-19. That’s the reason for the sharp switch in strategy. I can’t find the exact viral pneumonia figure right now and I don’t want to spread misinformation, but with COVID-19, 30% of hospitalised patients require intensive care. The number for Viral Pneumonia is significantly lower, but I can’t find the exact figure right now and I don’t want to guess. But this is the reason the original models had a different result. ICU beds would have filled much slower.

There was a backlash because the strategy was wrong. The scientists got it wrong and they have since admitted that. The reason so many people knew or suspected the data was wrong was by looking at other countries. Other countries used the nature and data of the correct virus in order to make their decisions. People were complaining because what we were doing was so different to other countries. That’s not normally a good enough reason, but that revealed the problems with our data and the scientists have since remodelled using the correct data and here we are. Hopefully not too late.

 

Other than Boris realising he was out of his depth, the rest of that's simply not true.
The 'experts' original advice was based on the wrong evidence base, and throughout this the plan was always that the advice would change.

Clinging onto the idea that doing nothing is remotely workable is bordering on the psychopathic.

The evidence tells us that the only way to lessen the impact is mass testing and isolation - if you want to look at countries that have behaved different;y to western europe, look to South Asia. Those results aren't theoretical they're real.

 

China is the exception. But China is also the exception in that it can actually control its population. Lock down in China means lock down. You don't do as you're told and you don't do anything ever again. But China knows what every other country will soon know. They've suspended the virus. If they're ever going to function as a society, world leaders in manufacturing, then they're going to have allow the virus back in.

 

I'm getting more and more worried about the economy. Money is a confidence trick - it only means something because everyone agrees and pretends it means something. Countries are going to start doing weirder and weirder monetary stuff to try and offset the damage of lockdown measures and the confidence in economies might be seriously eroded.

 

I am sorry, but I have two primary school age children. They’ve been set ‘work’ which is just a series of online questions/games/research projects that they have to login and answer.

There are zero plans for any actual teaching from their school. I’m sorry, but you’re just wrong. If you can’t accept that this is massively disruptive to the whole educational system, well, I’m struggling.

 

That's about the 10th different "only" way of doing it I've read. Which "only" way should we believe?

There are many strategies. There isn't an only one. You love mass testing, it's your only way. Others have their own personal only ways.

I don't believe in an only way, because all strategies have down sides. Massive ones. Yours has huge ones. I prefer the method I outlined earlier as it has far fewer down sides than anything else I've heard or read.

 

Can you post examples? Because as far as I can see the only places in the world bucking the trend are in S Asia
But as always, happy to learn

 

We're talking about two different things. You're talking solely about rates of infection. I'm talking about functioning society. If the end goal is no deaths from Covid-19 then of course, just lock people up and shoot them if they leave the house. That isn't my end goal. My end goal is a functioning happy society.

 

It's called Fiat money and I'm as concerned as you.

 

This is the first week, do you really think the provision for teaching full lessons remotely was just ready to set going? This will change over the next few weeks. I didn’t say it wouldn’t be disruptive, I challenged you on the point that only middle class people would be ok.. Schools are still required to provide education. Even if the teachers are not in the building. It’s not an extended holiday.

If you are at all worried, I would recommend YouTube as a great resource for educational videos on any subject you need. Be careful though, primary school kids would rather watch videos of other people playing Minecraft...

 

Course it is. I should have known.

 

I think the point is the online education provided is only as good as the parents who make sure their kids do it and can help them to understand it.

My 7 year old is already exasperated with me because I didn't know what a split diagraph and a conjunction was, and I've got a masters

 

But what about the emerging evidence that the figures may be considerably overestimated, and many people may have already had it and been asymptomatic?

 

I’m sure your masters would educate you enough to google it? As would anyone else who didn’t know.

I get your point that some parents are more likely to “parent” their children into completing what is set... which is why certain demographics of children are still allowed to be in school.

 

The kids still in school will be learning less than the ones at home, schools will effectively be mixed age child supervision centres