Big jump again today to 562 deaths

BE SAFE, x

 

Purely on the numbers it doesn't look good does it. The only crumb of comfort I can find is we don't know all the variables.
On average a person will infect up to 2.5 people with the virus.
But once other people around them become immune, there's nowhere for the virus to go, so it burns out.
We need widespread antibody testing. Its crucial information.

 

There is no guarantee that having had the virus you are immune, or how long that immunity lasts for.

There is evidence that a number of people (~10-15%) test positive *again* after testing negative - which suggests either it can manifest again or immunity is not given.

 

I think we're pretty good at testing whether people are dead or not.

 

Do you have a method of calculating that you’d like to share?

 

I will probley be proved wrong on the figures they shot up yesterday as it was the 1st day people were counted who died from the virus outside hospital grounds. Stay safe stay indoors donny red.

 

True, however what I have read from experts suggests that reinfection is unlikely and that in the case where it does a much more speedy recovery is likely due to antibody response.
Of course nothing is certain with a new virus but that would be the norm for a virus.
As i say i am trying to find a positive.

 

R rekon that as long as people self isolate, the numbers should cum darn, aving said that Italy an Spain r avin a reight bad time an they seem to be more isalalatory than us.

 

Thanks @Winker, islalatory is now my new favourite word.

 

The figures are growing in exactly the way they're expected to. I find it puzzling that after a few weeks of this some people still don't see the pattern.

I've just done a quick and dirty prediction based on an average of the % growth of the daily data so far - and we will almost certainly hit 1000 by Saturday and breach 2000 deaths in a single day next week. (and that's a conservative estimate)

 

Well I won't say it wouldn't surprise me, but keep in mind Italy's highest deaths in a day was 919.

 

The population of the UK is 10% larger than Italy. Hitting the same % of the population would be over 1000 in the UK.

 

Here's a quick graph to show numbers of deaths between Italy and England. Note: The graph STARTS counting deaths when both countries had approx 50 deaths each. The dates are for each day of UK deaths (starting from the 17th March, not Italian ones. Also note there's so many other variables it's really hard to make a direct comparison, Ill keep my opinions to myself

 

Average day on day increase of deaths:



Back of cig packet daily deaths if we taken the average of the above daily increases (26%) and apply it to each subsequent day, starting from today (not a prediction btw).

 

Again you might be right, but there's so many variables in trying to work out when and how quickly it spreads that it's hard to say for sure. I suspect London will share the significant brunt of it in terms of numbers of cases and deaths.

 

Don't extrapolate that out too far. I've done it to May, and it is very, very scary.

 

Remember 'the peak' needn't be the equivalent of an Everest. It might be more the top of the top of a very large dome. So the highest rate of deaths being some weeks away also means they won't continue to climb at the same rate. At least this is what they want and hope will happen.

 

Oh I purposely cut it off because its rather pointless given we've had a 'lockdown' and therefore statistically it is very unlikely to climb at the same rate.

 

Yeah, Easter Monday (2-3 weeks after Mothering Sunday) saw about 30000 dead in total. Before 1 May it was in 6 figures