Explainer on models and strategies (Covid 19)

This will take 10-15 minutes to go through but is very accessible.

https://ncase.me/covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR0tincdkOb_qFNCtu0VXFsKkMuyeOZ8yeMd_V-3KwpoZlF2dgLNCmJc5bk

 

Thanks, I hadn't appreciated how masks will play a part in the recovery.

 

Not all the way through yet, but it makes it quite clear that doing less than we did in the UK would have been an unmitigated disaster with ICU and hospitals jammed for many months with people seriously ill and dying by amounts that dwarf current numbers. The knock on effects for the NHS and non-covid issues would have been magnitudes worse than the current situation. Sadly this isnt a zero sum game where you can just stop one thing by doing another - it's a sliding scale and there has to be a decision made on where the line should be drawn.

 

Wearing a mask and saying they dont work is like saying that coughing or sneezing into a tissue is of no use. It's logic 101. Never quite worked out why people said otherwise.

 

Thank you for that. It's excellent. Please everyone set some time aside to read it.

 

I agree, it is science outreach at its best.

 

And it gives hope. We can get through this.

I like the description of lock-down being a restart. We bring the numbers down to a manageable level during this lock-down and ensure we have the resources to track and trace for when we open back up. And then, hopefully, this is the only lock-down we have to endure and we never exceed maximum ICU capacity.

 

Took me more like an hour than 10-15 mins but well worth spending the extra time trying to understand it.

 

Sorry, I don't know how long it took me to go through it, it felt like 15 minutes

 

Haha suppose it depends how much you mess about with the models. I’m an economics graduate so a bit of a number model geek, although not done any of it myself since uni 6 years ago.

 

Took me longer than 15 minutes mate. Had to go over some of the concepts a few times. But definitely worth it.

 

Thank you for posting that very interesting and informative. And yes add me to the list of took a lot longer than 15mins!

 

Without doubt, that's the most interesting and beneficial 30 minutes I've had since lockdown started. My eyes have been well and truly opened. Excellent stuff.
Thanks for sharing @Plankton Pete

 

Agreed, thank you PP. !

 

Very interesting and clearly shows that testing and contact tracing are the only way to avoid repeated complete lockdowns.

 

Any chance this could be made a sticky? I think everybody should see this.

 

Yeah not the easiest to follow but once you mess with the models it helps. Tempted to do it again this week as I’ve probably forgot or misunderstood some of it.

 

I'll have a watch.