Does the UK really think it's ready to exit lockdown?

Some graphs from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/. I use France for comparison simply because I have first-hand experience of lockdown here and I've read with interest and horror the stories of street parties back home.



I know we're supposed to be wary of comparisons between different countries but given that restrictions were imposed (and I appreciate that in itself is a contentious issue) what is there in the UK figures that suggests the country is ready to ease them now?

 

To be honest I think those that want to relax the lockdown are in a small but vociferous minority. I've yet to hear from anyone I know who wants to relax it. Apart from a tiny number of posters on here.

 

I hope you're right, @Stahlrost, and that Boris and chums see it the same way.

 

Thank you, I'm safe at home and will stay that way. Apart from the odd takeaway......

 

Hopefully, Boris Johnson's experience of actually having the virus and spending time in Intensive Care, will make him massively more cautious than some of those round him clamoring for an end to the lockdown.

 

There’ll be no exit from lockdown in tomorrow’s announcement, Raab’s already been extremely clear that any changes will be minimal so it will be at least another three weeks before there’s any changes to the lockdown, which will be ten weeks after implementation at the very earliest.

Whilst as you rightly say the number of diagnosed cases is flat, that’s against a backdrop of massive increases in the number and scope of the testing; two weeks ago, only those admitted to hospital (and footballers and politicians(!) were being tested whereas now with the much vaunted 100,000 tests a day are happening and testing is available to all NHS workers, their families and the general public who think they may have symptoms. We went from 5k tests a day to just short of 100k in three weeks.

You can clearly see the downward curve in the death rate figures, which seem to have been omitted from the data you showed; and clearly deaths will also lag new cases and transmission by some weeks, which would seem to indicate that the rate of infection has slowed and cases are reducing; the daily press conferences have regularly said they think the R number is between 0.5 and 0.8.

 

I think the changes tomorrow will be very small and essentially we will carry on as we are for a little bit longer.
Government need to set out what is happening as with Furlough scheme set to finish at the end of June employers will be getting the 45 days redundancy consultation notices ready.
Obviously a lot of those will come whatever happens and the battle ahead is to try and stop the certain recession becoming a full blown depression.

 

That's a fair point, TM, and I apologise if it appears I selectively edited the data. I actually just took a screenshot of the first few graphs that fitted on the page. Here are the graphs relating to deaths.



Note that the scales are different on the y-axes of these graphs as well as those above. Also, the UK has carried out approximately 25% more tests than France.

 

Deaths still higher in the UK though than France despite the declining curve.

 

There’s about 35k already redundant. The entire aviation industry in the UK is under notice as well. From making to the stewardesses.

I got my notice Thursday. I’ll be one of about 25% of our workforce hitting the buffers at the end of June.

I’ll have enough to cover me for 6-7 months but it’s going to be difficult.

The only people who will not be financially affected will be the retired and those who have been able to put some thing away.

The private sector is going to be ruined and in turn this will hit the private sector. No money coming in equals a higher council tax bill, higher rates and any non essential staff will be encouraged to take where they can early retirement or made redundant.

We are going to end up with a massive bloated NHS funded by a shrivelled economy.

 

As I have said before I genuinely think there is something in the stories that because of social distancing Covid is weakening itself as it mutates like SARS did. Daily infections have barely changed for ages, yet deaths are far lower.

Most have no issue with a lockdown for the rest of May. June needs noticeable changes though such as being able to see other people and trying to help hospitality.

 

You can get a new job, you can't get a new life.

 

You do realise that unless restrictions start easing off that a generously low estimate will be around 2m on the dole by the end of June..

 

Better than 2m dead.

 

There wont be two millon dead you slack sod. Stop scare mongering.

So how do you think your working life is going to be impacted come the end of June?

 

I don't give a flying **** as long as the people I care about are all alive.

 

Fingers crossed you are correct but I think it will be big business and comerce that puts pressure on the government to open up too soon Not wanting to get into a political debate dispite what I'm about to say but the Tory governments both past and present have a history of putting profit before lives...
Unfortunately they don't do compassion and empathy where lives are concerned... We are but stock... Just a number... And easily replaceable

 

Half a million people at high risk of being made homeless.
Cancer's and other serious illnesses going undiagnosed.
Some life extending Cancer treatments delayed shortening people's lives.
Vulnerable and disabled children losing support. Disabled Children increasing self harming behaviours. Parents of these children losing all support and being pushed to the limit mentally.
Abused Children now locked in a house with their abusers. Same for abusive relationships.
A impending recession that will shorten life expectancy for those hit hardest and have untold knock on effects.
A don't think that seeking a sensible exit strategy is out of order. Nobody is suggesting flicking a switch and returning to normal. But the current situation is unsustainable.

 

By the time this is done, the national debt is likely to be somewhere in the region of 3-4 times what it was when the policies of austerity were born. It ain’t going to be pretty.

 

We're not, but I believe we should be. We have the workforce and the facilities to have made enough PPE for our health, care and front-line workers during this down time; and enough testing equipment, and the time to have retrained enough personnel, to begin an extensive track and trace program. Maybe I'm being unfair to this government and they have done that, but I haven't read anything to suggest that's the case.

The plan appears to be to get the numbers down and then wing it, in which case it'll never be the right time to exit and we'll be right back here, where we are now, within a month.