The R is 0.8...

...in Yorkshire and the North-East, the highest in England.

https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2020-05-14/covid-19-why-is-the-r-so-high-in-yorkshire/

 

0.8 in Yorkshire and 0.4 in London with people packed onto buses and trains....

Aye, ok then,

Anyways under 1.0 means the virus is dying out

 

I was wondering that... London has seen packed tubes, north not so much. So why are they lower than us? Is it because they are further along the curve?

 

I'd say yes. As Tyke 67 alluded to the number being below 1 is always good. It means you're less likely to catch it even in a public place. If everybody sticks to their daily routine the cases should continue to drop.

 

Today's England deaths are 186......

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

0-19 - 1
20-39 - 5
40-59 - 18
60-79 - 64
80+ - 98

45 of them were yesterday and the rest date back over a month ago to 10th of April. With 23 of those deaths across not just Yorkshire but the north east that puts us with the 5th lowest of the seven regions. Barnsley had 1 death and many other Yorkshire trusts such as Calderdale and Huddersfield recorded a zero day.

I struggle to see 'on paper' how our R rate is twice as bad as London and it's all guess work anyway without giving everyone a swab test and antibody test.

 

It's because more testing us done here. Simple as that.

If you only test one person in an area with 100,000 people in it then statistically they can't be shown to infect anyone so the r number is 0.

Test all 100,000 of them and if only 2 come back positive then the r number is ever so slightly above zero.

 

Re your last sentence, no it doesn’t. It means controls are working at the mo. A second spike could well take it up to and above that.

 

The deaths from 0-59 has jumped up from 15 to 24.

 

It does though. If it stayed below 1 it would die out as it would run out of hosts. But I do take your point that it can quite easily pick up again

 

A spike within the supposed lockdown, gestation period 2-4 weeks ago, not good in some areas. God help after last weekend and new rules. We're giving Trump's USA a run for its money, poun intended.

 

The government's advisers have just announced that R has started to go up again.

 

We "think" it's between 0.7 and 1.

Well I "think" you aren't fit for purpose.

 

You and I understand that ST but I’m not so sure T67 does given his aye alright quote. If he/she does. My bad.

 

The R rate was described as "vital" when it was coming down. Now it's going back up, Hancock and Harries say it's only one of the things they look at.

 

I look at boobs n' tight arses in leggings but I doubt they'll fight Covid-19.

 

They are vital though.

 

The R rate they can only guess at because they can only test another 69k people in the past 24 hours.

 

We are told -
If R value is 3 one infected person will infect three others. But what's to stop the infected person infecting many more people.

If R value is 1 it's said one person will infect one other person. That's not right - one infected person could theoretically infect tens of others.

If the R value is 0.5 it will take 2 infected people to infect one other person - but that's rubbish because it only takes one person to infect someone else.

Is the reality that Politicians and Scientists don't like a vacuum and are telling us a load of crap but are making it sound as if it's accurate data?

What has happened to this App for Test-Track-Trace in the Isle of Wight - perhaps they realised that if the time gap between testing and getting the result is too long it's pointless?
What about the notion of testing air passengers once they reach their destination. So a guy gets off a plane 12 hours after being tested he's found to have Covid 19 - By this time the other 100's of potentially infected passengers will have probably been on busy public transport and then been out and about.

 

They don't actually know for certain area by area....Yorkshire and the North East is a huge area with a few real hotspots in Tyne and Wear which will be taken into account...I can tell you for a fact, no-one can tell you the R number for South Yorkshire never mind individual Boroughs.

 

Experts eh.....

I guess science and statistics aren’t your bag.