R- Rate back up above 1.. now what?

We have managed to kick this can down the road and we are now at the same point we were at in late feb/early march before the lockdown that has ruined the economy and will see us/our kids paying for this for decades. Not to mention the deaths Lockdown has caused.

 

no and it’s not something I think is achievable but there own coding system says we should be so no wonder people are confused.

 

Unfortunately, 30% of the electorate would still vote for Bonking Boris if he murdered someone on the steps of number 10, there’s another 10% he’s got because there’s no viable alternative to the right of current Tory policy - so their vote will hold up. Even if the economy is destroyed and we kill another 50k they’ll line up and vote for him.

 

Because an R rate of 1 at that point was where hospitals would be in danger of being overwhelmed. Now the facts have changed and, for whatever reason, the proportion of people dying or being hospitalised is significantly lower?

 

We are at levtt et l 4 virus not contained.

hospitals overwhelmed is level 5. All the evidence shows us at level 4 which the Govt advised ( and the posters are still up in NHS hospitals) meant full lockdown.

 

But the response was based on what they thought the impact of the R rate being above 1 at that time. An R rate of 1 isn't having the same impact. All that measures is the rate its reproducing at.

 

When was that scale used though? The scaled produced in June is different to that, prior to that I'd never seen a scale for this.

 

It’s worth remembering that at the height of the wave in March/April we were probably underreporting cases by a factor of 10 so 10k daily infections was more more like 100k. I would guess that despite its obvious mess, the current testing system is catching and reporting a much bigger % of all cases - I notice in France that although the death rate has crept up it’s lot looking like the previous wave despite them having 3k cases over a month ago and Hitting 6k cases 3 weeks ago.

 

The evaluation for scale 4 is R level above 1 hospitals not overwhelmed. Where we are exactly matches that criteria.

 

It’s on display in my missis hospital today. She said it was only put up in the last 6 weeks.

 

I've googled it and I can see a lot of references to a scale which has lockdown at level 4 but there's no actual diagram or anything just a reference to a 5 level alert system and its on government press releases and things too so it was definitely a thing but they were all from articles in may. In June when they released lockdown they produced a proper image of a scale and that had lockdown at level 5.

Just one of many examples of the conflicting information from bumbling boris

 

Yes, but the scale was developed when it was believed that an R rate above 1 would require a lockdown - as it says response required, back in to lockdown. I'm not disputing the R rate being above 1. I'm just saying that perhaps an R rate above 1 no longer requires the same response because the previously anticipated impact of deaths and hospitalisations aren't occurring.

I'm not saying I'm right but isn't it a pertinent question?

 

That's what I was getting at.

It's not what people think ought or ought not to happen, it's the fact that according to the government's own guidelines we are at Level 4.

But we're acting like we're at Level 1 - which is only likely with a vaccine apparently.

 

Sorry I see your point now and it's a fair one.

We haven't been told any of this though have we?

 

the issue is the mixed messaging from the Govt leading to complete confusion. I’ve listened to Merkel speak and she seems very clear that If the R rate gets above 2 eventually whether that’s 3 weeks or 3 months the German health service would be overwhelmed. I’ve not seen her since day that this isn’t the case and I’d trust her more than anyone in U.K. politics particularly given her scientific background.

 

I’d say changing information or not we are clearly not at level 1.

 

Don't get my wrong I'm not defending the government's handling in any way. For what it's worth I thought the levels was a relatively useful tool when it was introduced back in May. We used it in a city centre response strategy so measures could step up and down when the government changed the alert level. But they failed to stick to it at the time, and my question is now is as they've found out more about the illness whether an R rate of 1 remains as concerning. Not suggesting anyone on here should know, or if the government or even scientists do. But it seems a fair question.

 

I think the government abandoned their scale for reasons of economic and political expediency and this alongside all the other mixed messaging means people haven’t a clue how to behave and has led to all the daft conspiracy theories taking a hold.