307

Ok. Start with a properly functional and fit for purpose test and trace system - with capacity for everyone able to get a test (and result) within 24 hours if they have symptoms or believe they have been exposed to someone that is positive - and a trace system that traces 80-90% of contacts within 24hours of a positive test.

The figures from these updated on a daily/weekly basis and used as the basis for any restrictions on a regional basis:
Level 1: Over 20 cases/100000 or local R<1.5 - curfew, restricted travel, pubs and restaurants closed, school attendance limited, non essential shops closed, work from home if possible & immediate financial support in place for anyone unable to work.
Level 2: Over 15 cases/100000 or bordering a region at Level 1 or local R>1.2 - pubs closed, restaurants take-away only, non essential shops open and schools open, essential travel only.
Level 3: Over 10 cases/100000 or bordering a region at Level 2 and local R~1 - pubs open with restricted hours, restaurants open, schools open, shops open as now, non-essential travel allowed, offices open with social distancing
Level 4: Over 5 cases/100000 or bordering a region at Level 3 and local R<1 - pubs and other businesses open as now, sports events with limited crowds, places of religion open
Level 5: Under 5 cases/100000 and only bordering regions at Level 4/5 - no restrictions in place.

The figure of 20/100000 is the current limit for quarantine on incoming travelers. Would be happy to see that change as long as it was published and followed expert advice. Obviously this is just made up but you can see the gist of what I am trying to say.

If say Kirkless is Level 1 (they're just going back in lockdown), then Barnsley would be Level 2 at lowest, and Rotherham/Doncaster Level 3 at lowest. If Cornwall had 0 cases (and Devon was below Level 4) it would be fully open for business and could take visitors from anywhere at Level 3 or below.

High risk industries (live music, theatre, sports crowds, etc) continue to get government support until the entire country is below Level 4.

One week mandatory quarantine for all incoming travelers who can then get a test and are allowed out of quarantine if test is negative.

Where possible hospital services reorganized at below Level 3 so COVID cases are concentrated in one hospital while the other hospitals can catch up on non-COVID backlog.

 

FFS For those that don’t stick to the guidelines Gior bairning abart masks and distancing and having to stay in small groups. ( a restriction on my civil liberties some say. Well I say to them grow the fcku up and we all may have a normal a lifestyle as possible.) We all might be safer. and it’s time to let US ALL LIVE . It’s not much to ask, but they carry on in their own little bubble of a head, and screw the rest of us.
307 you say. 307 more than it should be. To those relatives and friends of theirs.

 

Great answer thank you, and I do appreciate you taking the time.

The levels of infection at each ‘level’ you’re quoting are waaaaayyyyyyy too low in my opinion (and I recognise you’re saying it’s relatively arbitrary because it’s taken from the Governments number for quarantine from abroad, and it’s not your own number), given that a) before all this the WHO defined an ‘epidemic’ as over 400 cases per 100,000 and b) as long as you have widespread testing, even if the true prevalence of the disease was at zero you would still see levels potentially as high as your level 2 depending on the number of tests solely from false positive tests, but it’s good that you at least have a goal in mind for where you’d allow people to return to no restrictions. I wish the Government would say what their goal is!!

I think also because of the low level you’ve set, what this would mean is that you’d be constantly opening and closing and reopening and reclosing and people wouldn’t know where they were up to, and it would be nigh on unworkable for businesses.

I also like the acknowledgement that we have to focus on non Covid healthcare much better.

 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12703599/coronavirus-no-longer-10-biggest-killers-england/

Covid has dropped to the 24th biggest killer in the UK. 23 ways more people have died than Covid....

 

As I said, the figures were based on the Gov's quarantine figures, but others are available. As long as we all know what it is and what the current rate is we can adjust our own behaviour to try and limit the spread. These can be increased as new treatments come in that increase survival rates, or decreased if there is also an increase in flu. Maybe Level 1 could be 200/100000, and Level 2 150/100000, etc, but I'm not an expert and would defer it to the professionals for the values to use.

Testing needs to be improved - both false positives and arguably worse false negatives. Although the new French 15 minute saliva test looks promising.

The other problem is Spain were at ~3000 cases/day in late July and are now are 12000/day and ~200 deaths (401 over last 2 days). But, Spain are only at 292 cases/100000 (14-day cumulative). The UK is currently at 62 by the same measure. So using 400/100000 Spain would still be fully open, but it is looking at serious problems in the next few weeks.

It does need to be clearly defined though so everyone knows what is happening at any time. None of this releasing new rules at 20 to midnight when they are due to come in, or announcing it by Twitter, or Facebook.

 

Ah the it’s only Flu lot are back out

 

Cant believe you’re putting articles from that sh*t rag in here.

 

Oh dear.