10pm Curfew

Worth pointing out for the benefit of the doubt that these are new cases, as opposed to active cases. The UK unfortunately has no data on active cases.

From the 7th September rolling average (2496 new cases) to the 24th September rolling average (4629 new cases) you're right in that it hasn't doubled.

I want to repeat again that I don't agree with making the predictions that they did in that presentation, however I can see why they were made. If you look at the rolling average from the 18th to 20th September (the presentation was the 21st) there would indeed have been doubling every ~8 days at that average rate across those 3 rolling averages daily rate of increase. (A lot of averages and assumptions there I know)

 

At the end of the day - it's just a practical example of the phenomenon of Brandolini's law.

 

Bojo doing a daily briefing tomorrow with Whitty and Vallance. I can see more restrictions coming because......

Cases rise more restrictions are added to try and stem it.
Cases fall and they feel justified with the restrictions in place and add a few more.

 

They'll bring everyone in line with Newcastle. It'll be a farce. People won't be able to talk on buses or trains or in any public place unless it's with people in their bubble. Obviously these little droplets can't be passed on just talking to people you know. Covid is too clever to infect someone else if I'm talking to Laura.

 

Imagine living on your own in Newcastle.

Eat alone.
Drink alone.
Have your allotted exercise period alone.
Socialise on your own.
Go to the shops alone and not able to have a chat with people you know cos thats well illegal as of 00:01 Wednesday.

Absolutely no face to face social contact with anyone, friend or family.

Just thinking about it, its ******* soul destroying.

Sales of Whisky and Paracetamol will spike over the next few weeks up there.

 

Have I read the isolation legislation correctly. If I work in the NHS I only have to isolate if I show symptoms and switch the app off whilst at work?

 

Basically.

Its a crock of ****.

 

Over 7,000 today. Be prepared for tomorrows press conference

 

Blanket nationwide ban on seeing friends and family reducing in more mental health, more people feeling lonely etc.

 

71 deaths. Wow.

 

Any comment on the 71 deaths today or are we ignoring that statistic again?

 

71 is not good but neither was 13 yesterday particulary good news. I'm not trying to score points, I'm only trying to suggest that daily fluctuations can be misleading.

 

Not compared to the hundreds who have died today of cancer or dementia. All deaths are sad but if we didn't have daily updates people wouldn't think about it so much. The economy needs opening back up and that includes fans being allowed in stadiums.

 

It's also worth pointing out that positive tests are still only a snapshot of infections. It is not the definitive total. A lot of asymptomatic and mild symptom people will not have been tested. The ONS come up with an estimated overall figure.

 

That's been the same all the way through, we've never had accurate daily infection totals.

 

Hence the word "still".

 

You can't compare the numbers of people who would have died anyway to those who have died from a new outbreak of a brand new disease. If we didn't have daily updates then people wouldn't think about it so much, but that doesn't make it any less serious.