Of Interest Tomorrow

Ascot

1.55 Oistrakh Le Noir (33/1 Paddy)

2.30 No Ordinary Joe (10/3, general)

3.05 Allart (3/1 Paddy)

Not good things, but of considerable interest to me.

 

You only like the first one because it's an anagram of your name.

 

That is indeed true Sir, but we must never back horses for reasons like that! For the record, this horse makes it's debut over fences today. Over hurdles (2 wins from 8 runs) it achieved a rating higher than any of it's opponents. That is some time ago - 2018 to be precise. But the trainer has been patient and the horse made it's come back over hurdles at Wetherby recently. Although only 13/18, the horse ran with some promise but predictably faded late on due to having it's first run for 30 months. It's very interesting (to me) that after all that time off, the trainer pitches the horse in at Class 3 level in a competitive Ascot novice chase when there would presumably have been easier options for it's first start over fences. The owners are high profile in the jumps game and have been content to pay the horse's training fees for all that time off. You would assume that they have been persuaded that the horse retains some potential. They have already had three other winners from just three runs this week - all for different trainers. The trainer himself had a winner at Exeter yesterday with a horse also making it's second start of the season.

All highly speculative, of course. But 33/1 represents just a 3% chance of winning, and he faces only six rivals today (Numitor has been withdrawn). Needless to say, my view is that the horse's chances are considerably better than that, while admitting he is no good thing. As it happens, since I posted this last night, Paddy's have trimmed his odds to 28/1, which may simply be because of the withdrawal. I would have supported this horse at any price from 10/1 upwards, so he is still a bit of 'value' in my opinion. And yes, he is an anagram of Orsen Kaht!

 

Just had a cheeky £5 treble on these selections

 

I'm looking forward to seeing the two Henderson horses you mention above.
Any thoughts on the 12.45 at Ascot? I went for first lord de cuet and Flegmatik at 1.55

 

The first is a non-runner.

 

Didn't have this down as a betting race, UT. However, at the prices, Castle Robin takes my eye. He won at Cheltenham last time out in a good time, and posting a good closing sectional. The third that day Steal A March re-opposes today and is 4 lbs better off with the winner but I would fancy Castle Robin to confirm the form as he came home much the stronger. Castle Robin is 9/1 today with Steal A March only half that at 9/2. Might be a Christmas winner for Her Maj at her own course but I think that price differential looks wrong and I'll take Castle Robin.

 

Would be a no-bet race for me now with my namesake out!

 

Any preference in the 13.55?

 

Sorry Granty, only just seen this. I didn't have strong views in that one once Oistrakh was out, but if pushed I think I'd have leaned towards the Moore horse that took second. Venetia's winning round Ascot in the mud is a fairly common sight though!

 

Fantastic run by allart in 3.05 unfortunately not a winning bet from me

 

Bloody hell, I backed it & turned race off half way round would never have checked

 

Always 1 that fcks ya! Nimind eh, only £900 darn in last 3 days

 

900 pounds!?

 

I’ve done. Betting apps are going.

 

Betting on the horses is a long game. It's all about strike rate versus average price of your winners. 33% winners, you need an average (winner) price of 2/1 or better. In that narrow window lies profitability in the long term. As a wise man once said: "It's better to go to the races with £50 aiming to win £5, rather than going with £5 aiming to win £50." Another way of putting that (another wise man) is to say that you don't have to hit every ball to the boundary - it's OK to score in singles.

My three today became two with the non-runner. On a notional £10 stake we have £20 invested. Allart (SP 5/2) returns £35. £15 profit on £20 staked (75% return on stakes invested). No need to make it more complicated than that. There'll be more losing days than winning ones, but keep your returns on a higher percentage than your strike rate and you'll do OK. The only way to do that is to log and track all your bets. Then you know what your true position is. You always have to take value - i.e. the probability of your horse winning should be greater than the chance implied by the horse's odds. And the first and most obvious rule is you never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Sermon over: tomorrow's picks. Ascot 2.25 Paisley Park (2/1). Ascot 3.35 Buzz (6/1) Arriverderci (7/1) stakes split 50%. Lingfield 2.00 Sangarius (11/4 Bet365) (NAP).

 

I think all of those have chances Mr Kaht. In the 2.25 though I think there is more to come from Roksana and in the 2.00 at Lingfield I prefer either Dubai Warrior or Bangkok. I won't be punting on any of those though as they look too competitive for any value in my opinion. However, in the 3.35 Ascot one horse which I think is under the radar is Oakley. He had an encouraging reappearnce run at Wetherby lately and that should have blown some cobwebs away. If he runs up to his statistics from last season he is in with a shout at a big price. I'll be having a look at how many places are available on the exchange and making a suitable investment - at current odds of 30.0 on Betfair he is an each way shout in my opinion. It's all about opinions innit?

 

Absolutely agree it's all about opinions, KCP. That and making sure you only back your opinion if the price is right (i.e. offers some value). But in the example I gave above, your opinion can be wrong 66% of the time and you can still come out in profit in the longer term. So you have to have the mentality to deal with the losers as part of the process.

Regarding the Lingfield race, I note that both Dubai Warrior and Sangarius beat Bangkok on their only meetings with him so far. So I'm inclined to narrow it down to that first two, who appear to have the standout form in the race. Dubai Warrior won the Winter Derby over course and distance and has the benefit of the recent run. I feel Sangarius has slightly more untapped potential and he also has the benefit of recent wind surgery. The question with Sangarius is will he be fit enough today? At the respective prices I'd prefer to take a chance on that as I don't think Sir Michael Stoute would be sending such a good horse out so late in the year just for an exercise gallop. We shall see!

I couldn't put you off Oakley - he has some strong form and looks a long price on the exchanges. However, he was third in a Class 3 handicap last time, has been raised 1 lb for that and is upped to Grade 3 level here, so I think he'd need to improve. My two combine for slightly better than 5/2, which equates to a 28% chance of one winning. I'd like to think that with the potential they both still have there'd be a better chance than that of one of them going in. Buzz has been raised 11 lbs, but have a look at his last race here - he looks as though he'd only just joined in at the final hurdle! But's it's a fiendishly difficult race.

I'd certainly respect Roksana in the 2.25, and the 7 lbs mares' allowance brings her into the picture. But Paisley Park was carrying condition last time out and meets Thyme Hill on 3 lbs better terms here, so at the same price as his rival he is the one for me as I think his form is stronger than Roksana's.

Interesting day!

 

Hi Orsenkaht, do you track your earnings over the years? I garnered the belief from reports that anyone who actually starts winning money consistently gets banned from betting sites. Or do you go to bookies?

 

Nice one with sangarius