Pubs Opening April?

If everyone over 55 has had their first jab by end of March how many are being admitted to hospital by then....can’t be many at all? We’ve got to attempt some kind of normality at some point.

 

We have but sage is made up of robot like people who only work in numbers and for whom even one death is one too many. They won't recommend opening anything while ever there's the risk of a single death as its not in line with their robotic programming

 

Aye....can’t imagine Chris Whitty et al have much of a social life to be fair.

 

Current rate of vaccination is over 400,000 a day. Over 6m of the population have had their first jab. As the age of the patients reduces the ability to vaccinate more increases as mobility and communication improves. If the availability of vaccine is not the limiting factor the first jab could be administered to all the remaining over 50’s in the next 40 days.

Second jabs over a similar timescale would mean all over 50’s would have the vaccine by another 52 days. So in 92 days time over 95% of the age range of people who succumb to this disease would be inoculated.

The target of 2m jabs a week was always an under estimate given the resources available, the government are trying to balance (and with past experience not very well) future optimism of an end to this with current behaviours. Things could hopefully change quite quickly in the next couple of months.

 

Even if they did I can kind of understand their thinking. They are there purely to try to protect lives and have nothing to gain by easing any restriction but everything to lose if a person dies. Sage is such a flawed concept when it is so heavily biased in favour of doctors and scientists. It should have a good healthy split on scientists and also child development experts, education experts, economists etc. If it's the key panel that advises the government then it shouldn't be made up from just one section or you'll only get advice that favours that section

 

All I can think of now is Chris Whitty at Creamfields off his face on mushrooms, giving it large to Chemical Brothers.

 

SAGE is the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies. It is not for all those that you mention - and indeed many specialists in pandemics aren't directly part of SAGE. They do, however, work for committees that report into SAGE (such as NERVTAG) or into other parts of government and the politicians *should* be taking their views into consideration. SAGE advise, the politicians decide.

 

Yeah at the current daily rate all over 18s and vulnerable could have had at least one jab by the end of May. Last summer we had months of packed beaches and protests but very low infection and death rates. This time around we have multiple vaccines with doses in the tens of millions. Normality by the summer isn't as far fetched as it looks right now.

 

We keep kicking the can down the road with everything unfortunately, we,ll be right by xmas, then the spring, now the summer, i,ve even seen one expert say septmber, this succession of false dawns that we,re being given are really getting people down and are a big factor with people not complying with the rules, the powers that be seem to be full of hot air while people lose their businesses and some their sanity, this can,t go on forever, but there seems to be no end in sight, we have them giving us hope with the vaccine, then Hancock saying yesterday that it will be a LONG LONG LONG time, very depressing thought...

 

Hancock is depressing full stop!

 

https://www.radiox.co.uk/news/music/new-zealand-20000-crowd-biggest-gig-six60/

The tories and the ‘lockdown sceptics’ have led us to where we are. Meanwhile in NZ

 

I am currently heavily involved with Guernsey through work. After an initial lockdown, they've been virus-free for months - all my colleagues were able to go out and about as normal, with the exception of international travel and having to isolate on return. News came in this morning that 4 cases on Friday became 32 by yesterday and the island has gone into immediate lockdown (to be fair, they don't have the facilities to cope with many cases on island). The rumours are a superspreader event at a 700+ person dance two weeks ago.

It doesn't take much for the situation somewhere like that, or New Zealand, to deteriorate quickly if they take the foot off the gas.

 

NZ seem to have a handle on being able to react quickly and decisively when they have unlike us.

 

According to the report from Israel, one jab only provides ~33% immunity after 2-3 weeks - and according to rumours about the EMA this morning, AZ haven't provided enough data for trials on the over 55s for approval for that age group! We also have a more contagious, more deadly, variant on our hands than last year.

Don't get me wrong, this winter lockdown is the worst so far, but set yourself realist expectations about when it will be over.

 

Yes, but it only takes one blind eye or someone bending the rules to make one case into tens, then hundreds.

 

Aye let a bit of fresh air in nowt worse than stale, stale ale.

 

There is NO WAY pubs will reopen in April. The kids aren't even back at school til mid April.

Pubs are first to close and last to open.

 

Taking the emotion and any vested interests out of the equation, surely if we were prioritising things to be reopening then pubs should be low on that list?

 

TM I sort of agree. Life's are been lost and obviously far more important than going for a pint.

It's the 'who can and who can't open' rationale I can't grasp. Especially when the hospitality industry had to introduce far more measures than any other I could mention. They've now been open for 10 weeks out of 45ish and still we''re struggling to cope. It galls me that they were put out to dry and basically targeted and picked on. I've seen personally what it's doing to people in the industry when all they did was abide by the outlined guidelines.

 

The industry has my full sympathy by the way, they have been treated badly I totally agree.