Our 'form' is incredible

I've just been looking at the PPG from throughout the season, and it makes for even better reading than I expected. I've copied the table below, with PPG calculated from the 1st of each month to where we are today and done the same for our play-off rivals. We've been consistently brilliant since Big Val came in, more consistent than any other team outside Norwich and Watford, atlhough Bournemouth have had a brilliant last few weeks. Us and Bournemouth are the best 2 teams in the play-offs, it's worth noting how badly Brentford and Swansea have tailed off as the season has gone on.

Reading are the opposite of us, they had a lucky start but have been bang average ever since. Even if we lose our next 3 they won't catch us, no chance.

 

Good analysis, but why were Reading lucky? I suspect they shocked some teams initially, who may have sussed them out. That's not luck, it's football.

I'm not saying they're Ajax from the 70s, but to put their position after 43 games down to a lucky start is disrespectful imho.

 

I watched the Reading stats from the early games and they basically created virtually no chances in games against teams that created lots of chances but still won the game as they took the one or two chances they had - you can't keep doing that forever and that has caught up with them in the end -

 

xG For = 6.4
xG Against = 7
Actual For = 15
Actual Against = 3

 

They finish games strongly. I thought they should (Reading) have beaten us at Oakwell.

 

They gained 12 more points than they were expected to. They had a lucky run at the start and have reverted to the mean, they're a mid-table team.

 

Really ? Didn’t we have that one disallowed unjustly from the corner ?

 

They didn't finish strongly against us. They gave up after missing the open goal. We had a goal disallowed and hit the post towards the end of the game.

 

I like this...


Based on expected goals per game, we should have lost 3 games we won, but drawn 11 more, and lost 8 less.
We've got the best defence in the league based on xG.

 

That is a seriously impressive response. You've supported your statement with data and I'll agree, your initial comment was spot on.

 

Every time see a post about this expected goals stat I always ask what is the statistical point of it? No one's been able to explain any genuine merit about it. It just strikes me as "what if" data, which in football is pointless.

 

I forgot about Anderson flicking a boot out and the ball trickling into the post. The Reading defence having time for afternoon tea and the attack being over.

 

Thanks. I just remember early in the season when they were winning but taking every chance they got and it was never going to last but I thought they’d still make the play offs.

 

Does all this give anyone else a headache too, or just me?
We’ve been reight good.

 

It’s very accurate at predicting long term trends, so the Reading one is a prime example. After 8 games you’d have thought they’d been brilliant and would romp the league, but it was clear from the xG data that they were getting lucky both in attack and defence. They were taking chances at a rate that wasn’t sustainable and teams were missing chances at an unsustainable rate. Sooner or later, their strikers would start missing those chances and the opposition would start putting them away.

 

Still a bit hail Mary for me, football is way too unpredictable, if xG was sound we'd all be using it to take Skybet to the cleaners wouldn't we?

 

Unlike our considered opinions on here, it is useful as a quantifiable measure as to whether we statistically deserved to win or lose or match. It doesn't predict if we will win or not, just if we had best chances to win the game or not. It's really only useful in hindsight for analysis or as Wellsie said above, to predict long term trends.

 

They missed an open goal, sure. However, we had a goal disallowed. Draw fair result imho