Play off promotion odds according to Skybet

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by Jack Tatty, May 12, 2021.

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  1. Jack Tatty

    Jack Tatty Well-Known Member

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    Screenshot_20210512-130723_Sky Bet.jpg
     
    Jack Tatty, May 12, 2021
    #1
  2. Jack Tatty

    Jack Tatty Well-Known Member

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    Fair odds?
     
    Jack Tatty, May 12, 2021
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  3. Deafening Silence

    Deafening Silence Well-Known Member

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    Surprised Swansea are the underdogs for our clash if only based on their double over us this season. They are in dire form though.
     
    Deafening Silence, May 12, 2021
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  4. BarnsleyReds

    BarnsleyReds Well-Known Member

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    Seems about right to me
     
    BarnsleyReds, May 12, 2021
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  5. Heb

    Hebeb96 Member

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    Check the exchange for a better idea
     

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    Hebeb96, May 12, 2021
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  6. Deafening Silence

    Deafening Silence Well-Known Member

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    I don't use the exchange so could you explain that for me.
     
    Deafening Silence, May 12, 2021
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  7. ATY

    ATYKE1 Well-Known Member

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    No point in us turning up then if we get past Swansea !
     
    ATYKE1, May 12, 2021
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  8. BarnsleyReds

    BarnsleyReds Well-Known Member

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    Will never get why people get offended by betting odds.

    The odds at sky bet translate to roughly 22% chance for us to win it which seems pretty accurate to me.

    No point pretending that we’re the favourites when we’re clearly not.
     
    BarnsleyReds, May 12, 2021
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  9. Heb

    Hebeb96 Member

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    For each team, take the lay odds (the ones in the blue box) and do 1/lay odds to get the probability of them getting promoted.

    E.g. for Barnsley it’d be 1/4.6 = 0.22 = 22% chance of promotion

    to convert to fractional odds, subtract one from the lay odds. So on the exchange the odds are (roughly):
    Brentford 7/4
    Bournemouth 3/1
    Barnsley 7/2
    Swansea 19/4

    so for Brentford and Barnsley the odds are close to Sky Bet’s, but Sky Bet have overestimated Bournemouth and Swansea’s chance of promotion by quite a bit. The bad odds they’re giving for Bournemouth and Swansea are where their profit is coming from: the odds on the exchange are the “fair” odds.
     
    Hebeb96, May 12, 2021
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  10. tho

    thomasevans Well-Known Member

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    That would make it us v Brentford at Wembley (or Istanbul). I would be okay with that.
     
    thomasevans, May 12, 2021
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  11. Farnham_Red

    Farnham_Red Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    So Swansea Bournemouth it is then with Swansea winning on Penalties

    Cant decide if we fail who I want to go up - Ideally Brentford but we have a good record against them - Not playing Swansea would be the best for us for next season
     
    Farnham_Red, May 12, 2021
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  12. Gimson&theBarnsleys

    Gimson&theBarnsleys Well-Known Member

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    But won't Brentford be in FFP 5hit if they don't go up?
     
    Gimson&theBarnsleys, May 12, 2021
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  13. Gordon Owen

    Gordon Owen Well-Known Member

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    Barnsleys record v Swansea for the last 12 games.

    0 wins.
     
    Gordon Owen, May 12, 2021
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  14. Gordon Owen

    Gordon Owen Well-Known Member

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    Hopefully.
     
    Gordon Owen, May 12, 2021
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  15. Gimson&theBarnsleys

    Gimson&theBarnsleys Well-Known Member

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    Our turn then.
     
    Gimson&theBarnsleys, May 12, 2021
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  16. ATY

    ATYKE1 Well-Known Member

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    I was trying to be funny - never mind!
     
    ATYKE1, May 12, 2021
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  17. Mr C

    Mr C Well-Known Member

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    The odds of Swansea doing the treble over us are well long. :)
     
    Mr C, May 12, 2021
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  18. Red

    Red CB Well-Known Member

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    I think the odds just reflect the final league position
     
    Red CB, May 12, 2021
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  19. BarnsleyReds

    BarnsleyReds Well-Known Member

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    Final league position was Brentford, Swansea, Barnsley, Bournemouth
     
    BarnsleyReds, May 12, 2021
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  20. Fon

    Fonzie Well-Known Member

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    An interesting stat I saw today.

    We are 3rd in the league for goals scored from set pieces with 17. However, Swansea are top of the league in goals conceded from set pieces with 7.

    Could be the difference imo.
     
    Fonzie, May 12, 2021
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