The original goal of lockdown was to stop the NHS being overwhelmed. Ironically the NHS now faces being overwhelmed by the backlog and damaged caused by lockdown. So where do we go now? Even if the increase in infections leads to more hospital admissions do we lockdown again and overwhelm the NHS in the long term or leave it and risk short term? A lot of the damage has already been done now and many are done for either way. Hopefully the numbes on hospital admissions and deaths will continue to go down so we don't have to find out.
The vast majority will come back but they’ve had to refinance in a lot of cases and take on a hell of a lot of debt. Prices will increase significantly over the next few years particularly in the travel sector, alongside massive inflation generally. time to buy some Bitcoin.
Can't imagine the numbers in the travel sector, obviously demand still exists so it will bounce back in some in form.
How many respiratory diseases have we eradicated? Comparable diseases in terms of how the virus is spread. Diseases by which we could judge how successful we might be in eradicating this one? Diseases such as the other corona viruses that affect humans or influenza or the common cold. How many of those have we all but eradicated?
You have to be extremely careful when using statistics not to reach a conclusion that is entirely erroneous. 7.19% isn't the proportion of people in that age bracket who have died from Covid. It's the proportion of people who have died from Covid who are in that age bracket. You therefore can't extrapolate anything.
Not sharing this for any other reason than to try and inform those people who think ‘what’s another few weeks’ when it comes to businesses surviving through the current restrictions. I’m now up to eight businesses that I personally know across Leeds/Manchester that have decided to close and furlough staff, rather than try and trade under the current restrictions. With the lack of government support, if the lifting of restrictions on 21st June doesn’t happen they’ll likely just disappear. But all you’ll see is a ‘closed’ sign or a new business pop up, with little thought for the individual who’s life might be in ruins behind the scenes. These businesses are already saddled with more debt than they’ve ever had just surviving the last 12 months. Data not dates. Protect the NHS from being overwhelmed. Nothing right now suggests 21st June shouldn’t go ahead as planned.
The Times reports that the government view is that there is no evidence to support a delay to the final stages of reopening on June 21. That is despite the fact that Covid infections have surged by 76% in a week.
This is where public attitude makes zero sense and it feels like we’ve been beaten in to submission. The data that matters is hospitalisation and deaths, because if they don’t track negatively and worryingly then the surges don’t matter. The vaccine was developed and fast tracked to disconnect the link between COVID and hospital. If it achieves that then we’re winning. If it doesn’t then who knows, but lockdowns can’t continue so at that point I think you’ve got to move to a self awareness/self assessment strategy until Plan B of the vaccine rollout is decided. We won’t need that though.
So have colds. Do we lockdown for people who get the sniffles? Hospitalisations and deaths are the figures that matter not how many people get something with no idea they've got it.
I personally know around 70 businesses who attempted to reopen under restrictions in may who have now chosen to close again as the restrictions made them unviable.
The best case scenario model produced by SAGE as to how the road map is to progress shows that England is currently performing better than their predictions (whod have thought) Case and hospitalisations in Bolton have peaked, Blackburn isnt so far behind. As are other areas deemed at risk from this latest variant. Warm weather. Itll improve drastically. bear in mind these cases the vast majority will relate to "exit waves" from May 17th when people were allowed to socialise again... It is time that we moved on from the monumental failures of lockdowns and started entrusting people with their own personal responsibility again.
completely agree you have to be careful, but it is a demonstration that people are dieing in that age band, robust data would be useful, hence why I didn’t extrapolate to an actual figure, just outlined the numbers could be very significant.
Thing is Loko, people want to go out to the pub, drink beer, socialise, chat ****. They dont want to do it under the current restrictions. Wear a mask to go to your table. Sterile atmosphere caused by table service and being seated in half empty pubs scared of letting your hair down cos Covids.. Wear a mask when you need a piss...
No football No nightclubs No concerts No holidays This is still lockdown. And another 6 months of this rubbish is so depressing I cant comprehend
But not what you decided to share? You went for words like ‘despite’ and ‘surge’ and removed all context of the point the Times was actually making. Or so it appears?
Not a fair cop on this occasion, Loko! The words were the Times', not mine: Covid infections surge by three quarters in a week Fastest rise since September but government insists big reopening is on course updated Kat Lay, Health Editor | Oliver Wright, Policy Editor | Charlotte Wace | Ademola Bello Saturday June 05 2021, 12.01pm Coronavirus cases have surged by 76 per cent in a week but the government insisted last night that there was still no evidence to support a delay to the final stages of reopening on June 21. Infections are rising more quickly than at any time since September but No 10 said that the data remained “as expected”. The original version contained the word 'despite', but as you can see it was updated at 12.01pm. If anything, the quotes I lifted support your (and others') observation that hospitalisations and deaths are the more relevant figure at this stage.
Hospital numbers way lower than the best case scenario SAGE gave in their guessing. Multiple vaccines breaking the chain. Over 25s being called up next week. Over 40s having their second jabs moved closer. Cases don't matter anymore. The only thing overwhelming the NHS is the five million people waiting to see them.