June 21st

There is no data to warrant another delay. If they can delay on current figures, they can keep delaying and restricting us in the future. We can only hope The Times are wrong as even the speculation will have caused stressed to many people.

 

I’ve yet to meet anyone or read and/or listen to anyone who doesn’t want this to end.

 

We are in to Fergie time now.

 

Always happy to help.

 

Confused about what the strategy is. Ministers keep saying publicly there's nothing in the data to show the Road Map needs a delay.
Then we get stories like this telling us we may have to delay it. The message needs to be clear. If we're looking at a possible delay, just say so and explain why. Yes many of us will disagree but this constant daily flip flopping on the subject is no good for anyone.
As ever it doesn't feel like a decision based on data or facts, not with public health or NHS capacity in mind but rather the typical "what decsion will be more populist"
Regardless of anyone's thoughts on the Covid response in the UK I think we can all agree we are governed by absolute incompetents of the highest order.

 

There will be people on here nodding along with every word he says.

 

Which is why these threads are now pointless.
I’ve lost count of the number of times people tell me what I approve of etc.

 

They want indefinite lockdown!!

 

We'll be reyt, tomorrow's headline: "DePfeffel sorts out the kerfufell".

 

Stress is your bodies reaction to external stimuli. Stop worrying about this - you cannot control it, you cannot change it. It will be what the government decides it will be. Worrying about stuff outside your control will just damage your mental and physical health. Do stuff that makes you happy - watch crap on tv, listen to music, run through the woods, etc.

The government could relax all restrictions now, but that could result in another wave and have to do it all again in 2-3 months. This depends on several factors (as it as always done) - how effective the vaccines are (1/2 doses), how long that effectiveness lasts, whether the dominant variant affects unvaccinated people and the long-term health implications for infections. The scientists have an idea about #1, but there is doubt about #2 with reports suggesting that Pfizer starts to lose effectiveness against Delta after 3 months (and most of the over 80s had Pfizer more than 3 months ago), and they need more data for #3 and #4.

At the moment, cases are increasing exponentially - by around 4-5% per day. When the remaining restrictions are lifted, this rate will likely increase. When this has happened previously, it has lead to eventual lockdown. If you want to avoid that, then we need to be certain that relaxing any restrictions won't take us back down that path. That is what *everyone* wants to avoid.

If you wait a couple of weeks and hospitalizations and deaths doesn't increase then we can proceed in relative safely. If you wait a couple of weeks and hospitalizations and deaths start to increase rapidly then we are in trouble and will have to go backwards - at least in some regions if not nationwide. At the moment, without data it is just a coin-toss and government policy shouldn't be done on a swing and hope.

The vast majority aren't wanting us locked in our homes forever - although there are always zealots on both sides of the argument - but they'd rather avoid yet another lockdown as a result of the failure of government policy. If that takes another 2, 3 or even 4 weeks to be certain, then that is what it needs. After all, you wouldn't just walk out into the road - you'd look both ways and wait until it was safe. You also wouldn't just put your foot down on the motorway when the warning signs were flashing. The vaccines might have broken the link, but we don't actually know for certain and every time we've seen the same signs in the data before it has lead to major problems within a matter of weeks.

 

the road map was based on the NHS being protected and deaths being reduced and the vulnerable groups vaccinationed.

it is still below all forecasted models.

 

But for example. Bolton hospital has admissions much lower than in the peak, but has still had to open up a second Covid ward, which will have a knock on effect for patients that would otherwise have been in that ward. The same will apply to other hospitals.

If ministers can spell out what impact on hospitals is acceptable, and what confidence levels in modelling they can live with, it would become an objective decision based on numbers.

Unfortunately, as he was saying "data not dates", the PM immediately announced a series of dates, and did nothing to tie them to any data.

 

Quite clear though that they are going to take the full period to review the data. Whitty and Vallance appear to still have concerns, which Johnson looks set to act on. So it doesn't matter what you, I or anyone else thinks. We are headed for another 2-4 weeks of this beyond 21 June.

 

And the areas currently with some form of "advised" restrictions has just added another 2.8m people with Manchester and Lancashire added to those who are advised to minimize travel, etc. Seems like the local restrictions are sneaking in through the back door with minimal publicity....

 

To be honest, if the restrictions are around travel, but not involving closures, I can understand it a bit more. Why would you want to travel to a so called 'hotspot', unless you really had to, and why would you want people travelling out of hotspots unless they had to. Problem is when you close places down, which just encourages people to go to places the other side of their local authority border and spreads the virus rather than contains it.

 

They were pressured into giving people a rough idea when the various restrictions would be lifted. There were no promises and it was made clear the dates given would be the earliest something could happen. People are now acting as if 21 June was set in stone.

 

Worried now.

Leeds carnival cancelled on 31st Aug.

Another summer lost?

 

And another can kicked down the road. . .

July will become August and still not opened up fully.

then that becomes September.

At some point, preferably in summer months you need to pull the scab off and start living again otherwise we'll never escape this constant cycle of lockdowns arbitrary rules of contradiction and the knock on effects will dwarf anything Covid will ever do.

 

Can I ask your honest opinion Scoff, as I do genuinely respect the thought and detail that goes into your posts (I know it may not seem like that as I’m often pointing out the factual inaccuracies, but genuinely, you’re one of the most erudite of the pro lockdown crew).

Do you genuinely believe it will be 2-4 weeks from when the delay is announced? Honestly?