June 21st

Well, would you agree that the hospitalisations are directly tied to number of cases? The hospitalisations means nothing if the cases are a lot lower than predicted.

Hospitalisations alone is not a data point that means anything really, is what I'm saying. The data that matters is hospitalisations in relation to number of cases. So DB3k's constant posting of "hospitalisations are far lower than predicted" is nonsensical on its own.

If cases are far lower than predicted, hospitalisations are never going to be at what was predicted, are they? But that doesn't mean anything because cases are increasing every day currently.

 

But what benefit is it to them ?

 

People are making tens of billions out of this through PPE, vaccines, tests etc. Will these people be happy with their money tree coming to an end with normality?

 

but there's always ways of making money under capitalism. Why all this disruption just for the sake of that? And I've only bought cheap washable masks so they'll not be making a fortune out of me!

 

Be millions of the disposable ones used in the UK each week. Getting disposed of all over, someone will be unhappy when that comes to a end.

 

But there will be sonething else to fill the gap is the point I'm making.i don't trust the Tories as far as I can throw them but to suggest they actively are seeking to "control" us with COVID restrictions is bonkers! There's way more money to be had and made in a normal functioning capitalist economy.

 

In my opinion it's of course hospitalisations that matter.

If there is just 1 person in hospital and just 1 person asymptomatic then there's no difference between that and if there was 1 person in hospital and 1million people asymptomatic.
I get what you're saying about numbers rising but that is directly linked to what db3k showed. It showed a real life trend in hospitalisations and was lower than any of the sage modelled scenarios. The sage modelled scenarios will also have included case predictions in them. They won't have just guessed random numbers for hospital without thinking that maybe people outside hospital would have it too, they're linked. They're part of the same modelling and we are doing better than the experts predicted.

 

You may have but you aren't representative of the UK. The company I work for has sold around a third of a million disposable masks in the last year and we are a relatively small company who don't specialise in PPE. It's frightening to think of what the actual numbers must be.
We also sold around half a million disposable plastic gloves until all our suppliers ran out.

 

But then other industries are losing out. Its like in a war munitions will make the money but come peace time construction does. I still don't get why the need for this "control "when the population was never out of control.in the first place.

 

He isn't saying hospitalisations don't matter. Today's hospitalisations are linked to case numbers from a couple of weeks ago, so you've got to factor in there is likely to be a surge in hospitalisations soon to proportionately match the surge in cases.

 

And funnily enough that IS factored in to the sage modelling. Do you think that their best and worst case scenarios completely forgot about hospitalisations being linked to cases? We hang on their every word when it suits but when it doesn't we just ignore their modelling and assume they don't know as much as you do about how hospitalisations are linked to cases?

 

To be honest I wasn't really thinking about the control aspect with my post. It was more the environmental disaster that I was getting at

 

I don't think the Sage model which takes into account vaccinations is far out is it. Isn't it the bottom grey line of that Spectator graph i.e. scenario 5?

 

Very true struggle to go on a 5 minute walk without seeing a disposable mask on the floor dumped.

 

It may look not far out but in reality the grey line lowest scenario actually has well over double the hospital admissions of the real red line. 2112 versus just 884.
Also the scenario that takes into account vaccinations is the second highest on that graph and has 13,850 hospitalisations versus the real live 885.

Scenario 5 has higher restrictions in it for longer than which we currently have. It was a slower relaxation of the rules which would have created a two tier country with vaccinated and none vaccinated people given different freedoms and with full unlocking not allowed until a minimum 16 July and pessimistic outlook of September. Even with their modelling of higher restrictions we are still many thousands of hospitalisations lower than their prediction and yet we are told this isn't good enough?

Scenario 4 which is the lowest one had us all in tier 2 until last Monday. This would have meant not being allowed to meet anyone indoors, alcohol only allowed with a meal etc etc. Even with such harsh measures in place. Much harsher than we have had for the last month, they still had well over double the hospitalisations. Their absolute best case scenario involving tighter restrictions for longer and it had over double the hospitalisations. Someone tell me how that translates to 'we are doing worse than expected and need to delay things' because it just doesnt.

Also it is worth noting that the Indian or delta variant was discovered in late 2020 and this modelling was done in late February this year so it's not like it was unknown when they do it

 

The 'real red line' that isn't actually real. I lost interest in the graph when I realised the figures didn't add up. Their 884 (11 June) is supposed to be 22 lower than the previous day, but the dashboard shows 1,089 for 10 June.

 

You're looking at the wrong data.
From coronavirus.data.gov.uk, updated at 4pm yesterday

 

You make bonkers allegations of a soviet style state resulting from covid restrictions. Do you seriously think a government with Soviet style pretensions didn't have access to all that data pre covid should they wish to get their hands on it?

 

This government have the data, so they know exactly what areas of government they can make a few million quid off personally.
PPE and track and trace have been identified, its the other stuff we don't see. They're the most corrupt set of charlatans we've ever had in charge of this country. They would and have literally sold out our country and their own voters many times. Yet blue passports, flags and statues seem to be all that matters.
Thankfully the good law project are making the relevant links to all of this. Byline Times also need a special mention, yes they're left leaning but the truth is the truth.