Lifting of all restrictions

Thars what they did in Holland ( lifting all restrictions) and it was a disaster apparently

 

It just does not make any sense.

 

You must have really tried hard!! A simple Google search throws up numerous references to it.

 

Honestly, I’m not trying to be a dick. When I search ‘Harvard mask study’ all I get is an opinion piece by Robert Shmerling. I’m genuinely interested in seeing the actual paper with those stats in.

 

And further to this, when I search with those terms, the first actual scientific study I get is this one in the Lancet:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33483277/

which associates mask wearing by the public with lower incidence of transmission but doesn’t quantify it.

I’d really like to see the paper with those figures in because they’re so far ahead of any of the others I’ve read - and I’ve read a lot, with a variety of findings.

 

There are lots of different papers there. I've got no idea which one was being cited by the professor this morning as they just said 'a Harvard study', but even a quick skim of the first three I clicked on threw up references to masks providing varying degrees of reduction in transmission of airborne/water droplet viruses. The one obviously common conclusion to draw would be that anyone suggesting masks provide no reduction in transmission is talking absolute, unadulterated, demonstrable ********.

 

Fair enough. I don’t think the numbers are anything like those represented in the programme though.

There does seem to be an issue with the BBC giving individuals such as political extremists such as Susan Michie who have no epidemiological qualifications or those consistently, demonstrably wrong like Ferguson, describing them as ‘experts’ and allowing them to make fantastical claims without challenge. I think this only polarises the debate more and pushes folk like me who are at heart libertarians but want to properly understand the numbers out to the other extreme.

 

Not sure if this is the most recent one, but I read this the other day. Was going to post it in another thread but it is quite long winded and technical.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landig/article/PIIS2589-7500(20)30293-4/fulltext#seccestitle160

 

They did it in the rest of The Netherlands too!

 

The last wave suddenly peaked 10 days after a certain holiday. It was a false peak and the overall trend of cases was still upwards. The lockdown cut the true peak off the curve.

But that's exactly what I'm suggesting... Kicking the can down the road until everyone is vaccinated. Ideally not by lockdown but if there's no other way then I'd rather deal with that than a new vaccine resistant strain to keep us company through another long miserable winter.

People with only one dose, or less than two weeks after having the 2nd dose, is exactly what I mean by selection pressure to create vaccine immune strains.

People with some but not full immunity + high case numbers = potential for disaster and ending up right where we were before the vaccination program began.

There just isn't enough data to draw conclusions yet. Though we all saw the scenes from the Ganges. A lot of people have died from this variant. But again, my concern is mutation to vaccine resistance due to the lifting of restrictions with the initial vaccination program incomplete.

Having worked in hospitals I can say that, as with MRSA and other 'super bugs' Hospital sanitisation procedures are extreme and vigorous. The issue has been with lack of space when the previous waves peaked and the absence of true quarantine facilities. Hopefully we can learn from the events of the last year and improve facilities going forward.

As others have pointed out, there is scientific evidence that masks work to some extent. And that is definitely better than nothing. Remember your mask protects others, not yourself. If you genuinely believe that someone with their mouth and nose covered doesn't put less viral aerosols into the air than someone with an uncovered mouth and nose, then maybe you're the one vulnerable to buying magic beans?

Don't know or care who your communist is. I advocate mask use as do many other scientists and health experts. They're not perfect but they're significantly better than nothing.

Your point about children is a valid and serious one. It'll take years to understand the consequences of the last year on some generations. In the end though you're being unfair to the teacher's unions. Their job is to protect the welfare of their members. My wife is a HLTA and her school was being pressured to go back to near full capacity by a government that had failed to provide ANY PPE, extra funding or H&S training for Covid.

I understand your concern but right now is the worst time to ditch ALL measures. If you read my original post I actually never endorsed another lockdown.. just stricter measures to reduce spread (distancing, masks, contact tracing, disinfection protocols) precisely because I want to AVOID another, possibly harder, lockdown this coming Autumn.

Just riding out a highly infectious, sometimes fatal disease is not a plan that fills any rational mind with confidence.

 

Seems a very reasonable point and I have read it many times from people much more informed on the subject than I am. So please correct me if I'm wrong but could that not be easily be turned on its head e.g. part-vaccinated hosts are less likely to transmit viral strains carrying mutations that contributed to them getting infected in the first place ...
I imagine the true answer is,.it's complicated.

 

As with anything. Weakest link in the chain is the problem.

We can vaccinate and reduce all our numbers to near zero. Many other countries aren't, or unable to. So whilst we may help against a new variant, it will come from elsewhere. (Ie delta), so if its going to mutate and become vaccine resistant, it won't likely be through our country trying.

Dont have an answer either, but nobody else does. And our government would prefer to let variants in by the looks...

 

Big headline grabbing news stories in the media about how today is the biggest amount of infections since middle of January. Maybe so but under 50 deaths is a lot lower than the 1,300 we had back then.

 

This is one of my biggest concerns & we can argue all day long, I really feel for these 100% Heros

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57836137

 

Honestly, I think it will be very difficult to really tell the difference between July 18th and 19th. Mask wearing is clearly going to continue to be highly observed across all public transport, and similarly large events and many shops are going to continue to request it, albeit obviously they won’t have the legal backing behind it.

I guess the major difference is town centre bars and nightclubs where you might see more crowding, but it should be very easy for those concerned about spread to avoid those types of venues. And even that may still look very similar, as the Government guidance is:

- Wear masks in shops and at work
- Table service at bars
- Order by app
- Do track and trace sign-ins

So basically, very very little difference to today.

 

I no longer know who to believe. So many conflicting scientific papers drawing different conclusions.

On the one hand, logic and scientific research focussed on that single element tells us that mask wearing (or any face covering for that matter) reduces airborne droplets from coughs and sneezes etc by varying percentages depending on the mask /face covering efficacy.

However.....you have to counter that argument with how much transmission occurs from touching contaminated surfaces and objects rather than airborne- This should be considered especially as mask wearing, especially in hot climates (it has been consistently in the mid high 30s here for at least a month now) where mask handling -pulling it down outside and putting it back on inside increases significantly. If the exterior of a mask is trapping airborne particles from others as well as your own internally and you are constantly 'fiddling' with it then it stands to reason you wll have virus contaminants on your hands unless you use alcohol rubs every time you touch the mask which is most unlikely.

I am not convinced these studies- presumably in laboratory conditions - and often focussed, as I said, on a single aspect of mask wearing are borne out in real world situations. If based on statistics solely then there are too many other factors that can skew results as In the real World you cannot have a control group and in the labs the other factors are missing. Therefore conclusions are, at best, suspect and at worst could be completely wrong.

In conclusion, new case numbers is now a fixation. Deaths, hospitalisations and LTC are where the focus should be. Of all yesterday's cases in our region only 3 were symptomatic. NO deaths.and 20 in Italy as a whole

EDIT. Summary three ways to spread Covid..
1 airborne... mitigation by mask (see above)
2 surfaces.... mitigated by constant washing of hands
3 own clothing, personal items etc or handling items recently handled by others.e.g. glass or plate from waiter bar staff who may have just handled cash. Does anyone wash/sterilise their hands every single time they handle cash, serve a drink ?

 

Just out of curiosity.... has there been any guidance on how to safely wear a mask in Italy?

In the Uk I've not seen anything at all. Meanwhile Ive seen numerous examples of handwashing technique and guidance. My feeling from early on was the inclination from above was the virus was spread through contact and touching and not airborne particles.

A campaign to demonstrate mask wearing etiquette, how to handle it, how to remove it, how to reaffix it as safely as possible could have helped hugely.

 

I saw a mention last week, I think in Australia which related to the Delta variant and how easily transmissible it was. To the point they believe they'd traced infection from one person to another from just several seconds of moderate interaction and zero contact.

Its always made sense that airborne transmission must play a significant part and that government scientific concern has been colder periods where more people are together indoors.

We certainly haven't helped ourselves in so many ways. Just simple clear messaging. Simple campaigns through multi formats. But no, hardly anything at all. Just the illusion of messaging that they've "been very clear". Saying and being are two very different things.

 

There's the crux - 'properly used' - ie surgical standard, worn as per manufacturers instructions, not touched once worn, disposed of securely and stored according to manufacturers instructions. Everyone does that whilst in Tescos etc obvs.