Release all restrictions, cases drop like a stone

You do it so often mate.

The amount of times I've had a reply from you when you've only quoted half a line and only replied to that and ignored the rest is very high.

I don't claim to be an angel on here, I often post without thinking and if I feel like I go to far or say something I regret I will apologise for it.

 

A little bit.

Do I think there’s causation in the two things? Mmm, probably not.

Do I think it shows that lockdown measures have zero impact on infection rates? Yep. Yes I do.

 

I can see how you might argue that lockdown measures have a limited effect on infection rates. I would personally disagree with you, but I could see how you might argue that.

It's not logically possible to argue that they have zero impact on infection rates.

 

As a minimum you have to agree that it calls into serious question the judgement of those members of SAGE who were estimating between 100 and 250k cases a day by now - and therefore by extension the measures that they’ve championed?

 

I would have thought of more realistic comparisons to make. Italy perhaps or didn’t they not suit your argument? I wonder how many food banks they have in Sweden?

 

Splitting hairs, but I think the pessimistic estimates were between 100,000 and 200,000.

Listen, it's good news for sure. But just one week on, it's too early to say that we have yet seen the consequences of lifting the final lockdown provisions. But equally, it would be too early to say that the downturn in infections is due to the schools, which also only broke up one week ago. And after it looked like Blackburn and Bolton were beginning to head towards 'herd immunity' infection rates in those areas have begun to rise again (Bolton up 36% in the last reported seven-day figure; Blackburn up 17%).

The lockdowns bought time to acquire PPE (somewhat calamitously) and to ramp up the vaccination programme. And the NHS wasn't overwhelmed - but can we say for sure it wouldn't have been if things had been let rip?

I welcome the lifting of the final parts of this lockdown, but we just need to keep an eye on the figures for a while before jumping to conclusions.

 

I'll give you that, you have been whinging on & on, your still doing it. We all like a whinge minst.

 

Quite right JD...the lockdowns gave a breathing space for the vaccine to be produced and brought into play.

 

I'm just going to quote my own post to duplicate the links to the peer reviewed papers that confirm that lockdowns do work... With some measures significantly more effective than others.

One interesting thing I noted is the finding that large public events have a much lower effect on the spread of covid than small gatherings. (I guess maybe small intimate groups ignore distancing more and probably hug more?)

 

I take your point re Italy but I still think that comparing us to Sweden from a sociodemographic standpoint is as unrealistic in one direction as comparing us to Brazil is in the opposite direction. Also Sweden did impose some lockdown measures only they did so very quietly without all the fanfare that Boris used. Viz
“Local officials will have the authority to direct residents to avoid certain public spaces including shopping centers, museums, libraries, swimming pools, gyms, other sports facilities, sports matches and concerts. Regional authorities will also have the power to tell residents to avoid public transport as well as visiting the elderly and others that fall within risk groups, according to theTelegraph.”
The measures were introduced last year when Stockholm’s hospitals were perilously close to being overwhelmed.
Which neatly brings me to the question ‘ what would the antilockdowners have done in response to hospitals being overwhelmed? Would they have been okay with ambulances queuing up on Pogmoor Rd and Gawber Rd? With people dying on our streets as they were in parts of Spain?

 

I think people seem to forget that cases doesn't always mean illness.

Texas and Florida remained open largely, too. And your other point on where transmission actually took place is also overlooked. 60%+ (I believe) of new infections last year were in hospitals.

 

Just so you're aware, cases aren't actually dropping like a stone...NEW cases are dropping like a stone. The government defines new cases as someone who has not tested positive for COVID19 before. The daily dashboard figures do not include people who are being infected after being vaccinated, and if these were included the volume of infections would be shown to be steeply increasing.

We will have to come out of lockdown at some point, as I think we all agree, but the lack of transparency about the evidence to support such a move at this stage is the part most are worried about. I would like to see how the government has modelled what an acceptable level of death looks like because it's a sociological discussion that we need to have as a society. Undoubtedly the lockdown has directly and indirectly led to death and suffering, but it could be argued that the threat of death is less imminent and therefore easier to justify a lockdown. This is the real debate that we need to have, in addition to conversations about topics such as euthanasia and more closely defining the role and regulation of politicians.

Let's hope for the sake of everybody in society, particular the most vulnerable, that the government's motives are responsible in this instance.