Minority Report v Derby County

Please be gentle with me. The report will not be what people want to read, but it is my truthful reflections of the game. I did not finish it until very late last night, and I dared not post it before now out of fear of the backlash.

 

It is great to see your team win, and that is especially true when it happens for the first time in 14 games. It is good when a new coach in charge can begin with a win. Otherwise, the game was not one that I enjoyed. Of course, the tension in the crowd was part of it, and you could also see the tension on the field. After so long without a win, there was bound to be tension the next time we gave ourselves the chance of a win, and that tension was heightened because of the sacking of Markus Schopp at the start of the week. Many wanted to be proven correct in their insistence that Schopp had to go, but there was more to this performance than that, for me at least. There was a deep, deep frustration. Let me explain.


I do not usually bother playing Coach, but today, I decided that I would write down my team along with my reasoning. After I had finished, I looked at the result and realised that the coach could not pick my team because I had chosen 6 starters who could not complete the allotted 90 minutes because they were not fit enough, and I realised immediately what Markus Schopp’s problems were. Alongside too many injuries, Schopp had too many players who could not compete effectively for 90 minutes. He has to pick at least 9 players in his starting 11 who can complete 90 minutes to leave himself with 1 substitute to cover for the unexpected. Of course, Joseph Laumann is no different, but Laumann had luck on his side. Instead f the opposition scoring with a deflected shot, it was us (Adeboyejo). Instead of us hitting the woodwork when we should have scored, it was Derby. Instead of the opposition scoring a late equaliser because no-one was able to block a goal-bound effort, or clear the follow up off the line, we had the luck on our side, and there were players in the right place.


Now I know it is not a popular move to downplay an important win, and this was a very important win, but that is exactly why I set up the Indexes that I list at the end of all Minority Reports. I felt that Derby were the better team whilst I watched the match, and I felt that we were lucky to win, but I did not know if I was right until I arrived home and did the numbers. There is actually less in it than I felt at the time, but nevertheless, my instincts are supported by my indexes.


But what of my frustrations? We played the same system, and to the same plan as under Schopp. In my view, it should have worked better because our long term injured are beginning to return. The team is better than it was earlier in the season, albeit with the glaring omission of a tall centre forward to lead the line. However, so many of those players are just nowhere near as fit as I would like to see them. Andersen does not look the player he was last season after his long injury. Gomes just ran out of steam, having done all of Benson’s running for him for the preceding 70 minutes. Benson hit some wonderful passes, but he was not involved enough and he kept putting himself out of the action, by taking up unthreatening (often very deep) positions in order to receive the ball in space, and as a result, the ball was passed from one side to the other along the line of the back 3 because there was no-one in space ahead of them, and a ball hit forward would be a ball lost. A top midfield player wants the ball all the time, and not just when he thinks he has the time to do the spectacular. In spite of his goal, Adeboyejo offers little, and the fact that Woodrow could not beat Jagielka for pace down the left touchline said all we need to know about why he will not be the one to move on to higher and better things. Styles had to be protected from getting a tiredness injury and Iseka needed a rest, but all the subs had been used. I am frustrated that Oulare is still not involved because all I see are the same problems under a different managerial gaze, problems that cannot be resolved whilst this straight jacket of a system continues to deny the team what it really needs, and in a word, that is balance. A way of getting the ball forward more quickly without the increased risk of giving it away cheaply, or in a dangerous place or with the wing backs push up too high.


I should have come away from the game, basking in a glorious win. Instead, I came away from the game boiling because I saw it as a lucky win and a frustrating performance. We lost the previous 3 games, but were the better team according to the Performance Index. Today was exactly the opposite. If the Performance Index is the predictor of future results, as I believe it is, today was the day that the trend turned.


Entertainment Index:

Barnsley 74

Derby County 92

Match 166


Performance Index: -25


PotM Claudio Gomes

 

If I couldn't enjoy a win after a drought like we've had I d stop going to footy!

 

I’m sorry, but I had to stop reading where you said we played the same plan as under Schopp.

We simply didn’t, we had the back three spread much wider when we had the ball, which allowed us a quick enough transition if we lost the ball to avoid them being given acres of space down the channels. A simple change that if done earlier in the season might’ve seen us get something against Reading, Sheffield and Bristol City.

 

Sometimes the best team doesn’t win. Having said that,I didn’t think Derby were the better team, but as you pointed out we did have some luck on our side at key moments for a change

 

Jo Lau hinted at some subtle changes and I think that`s what we got.
The two midfield players were playing a little deeper than has been the case thus far this season allowing the wing backs more licence to move forward. This also meant Cauley played in more of a withdrawn role (harking back to Struber`s set up).
In turn the other two forwards had to be more mobile which probably wouldn`t suit Olare at present.
Oh - and we won and I didn`t think Derby were the better side over 90 minutes.

 

Even Rooney tried to say we were best side…..dont no were you coming from pal

 

Obviously your indices are subjective to how you want to see the game played, and if you didn't enjoy watching it I assume that as you found out at the end, the score would be lower on the entertainment index for you.

Just wondered when you say the trend has turned, do you mean we're going to start scoring lower on the performance index but start winning games? Because the performance index last season regularly said we were the worse team, but that we won?

 

The stats at the end of the game shocked me, because they showed Derby shaded the game on every metric apart from successful tackles.

I could have sworn we were on top for 70 minutes, and on the ropes for 20 - which is the complete opposite of most games under Markus Schopp.

However, those last 20 minutes showed me that we have a long long way to go. A better team would have buried us at the end.

 

I’ve always been of the opinion that to a large extent you make your own luck. l certainly don’t feel any need to knock the good luck we enjoyed last night after all the bad we’ve suffered recently. Yes Derby are half decent and WR deserves some credit for putting together and marshalling such a side from a ragbag of over the hill free agents.
Perhaps Schopp was just an unlucky coach and is Laumann a lucky one, who knows?
What I do know is that it was unrealistic to expect a Rolls Royce performance after the torrid period that we have just endured.
What pleased me most last about night was the way the players confidence and belief came flooding back which in turn generated a surge in energy and yes quality in their play.

 

Who cares, we won & stopped the rot.

 

I don't think Derby were the better team, they had a couple of shots from outside the box, the goal, and the last 10 minutes of penalty box ping-pong, apart from that I felt we created more and were the ones on the front foot, I don't remember the last time we looked like scoring 3 goals after being 1-nil down, but we could have gone 3-1 up during the second half, that's certainly a huge improvement on whats gone before.
As @ATYKE1 mentioned, the two midfielders were deeper to allow the wide men more license, this was a source of some frustration with Benson picking the ball up only yards from the back 3 all the time, but it did mean Styles had his best game I've seen this season and Brittain was like a new player.
I agree with the points on fitness, its a bit of a joke when you know you are going to have to use 2 subs to take off your most knackered players - its like Sunday league pub stuff. someone needs to get hold of the fitness coach and give his head a shake - its simply unacceptable that even after 3 subs there were another 3-4 players hanging out their *rses with 15 minutes left.

EDIT:
Also by my calculations thats the first game we've won after going behind since Huddersfield on Boxing day 2020. Think that has to count for something as well.

 

I think this forum is proof that the majority of fans base their view of the game on the result rather than the performance.

The buzz & relief at the end when the whistle went was huge but I agree it doesn’t tell the story.

Derby have to sit deep because they have an ageing side, especially defensively. People on here are talking as it was a tactical move on our part to get Brittain & Styles on the ball higher up the pitch but it was just that they were able to because they weren’t been pressed like they are usually. You can’t press when you’ve got Jagielka & Davies at the back.

Let’s not forget straight after Derby scored we did the same thing we did against Bristol & Sheff Utd & lost our heads a bit but for a heavy pass they would’ve been in to make it 2-0 & at that stage it would’ve been a huge ask to get back into it.

And then having took the lead we sat back towards the end & almost paid the price.

Having said all that we’ll be fine once the new lads & returning from injury players are at 100% & getting the 3 points will do loads for our confidence. Hull next with Benson, Gomes, Anderson & Leya Iseka hopefully a bit closer to 100% fitness & I think we’ll win.

 

That is a crazy analysis.

Derby had moments but did not dominate at any point.

Nervousness meant they were tired and deep for the last ten minutes or so.

But it is as well as we’ve played for a long time - and to state it was tactically the same as Schopp is blinkered and wrong. Formation maybe yes, but not otherwise.

The centre halves were spread out more widely, covering more ground and not as easy to get round. This meant the wing backs could stay wider and get forward more freely.

This led to both Brittain and Styles putting in performances akin to last season. Mind you, you didn’t think we were any good then either.

Was it perfect? Far from it. Benson is a luxury and you’re right, he needed a partner to do the hard yards for him. Woodrow looks way off.

But to say that we didn’t deserve to win, and that we played the same way as Schopp did, is plainly inaccurate.

I also love how you claim the stats bear out your opinion - the indexes are created by you to your taste - of course they will! They aren’t objective indices!

I’m not sure what you want from the team if I’m honest. Last year you said we were too direct - and now we need to find a way of getting the ball forward quicker. You’ve asked for the system to be tweaked to get results, Laumann did this and got the result, you say he didn’t change anything.

Can’t win.

 

I cannot agree with those who claim that the wing backs played higher. The Schopp team were often caught out with the ball into the full back area, primarily because we lost the ball unexpectedly and the wing backs had already committed too far forward. Indeed, that did not happen as much last night and I believe that is because our wing backs were less willing to run forward. On a few occasions, Brittain was drawn too far forward and there were even occasions when he was in the left wing back attacking area. Then, Benson was dropping back in coverage so the wing back was not missed defensively.

For the record, here are the statistics and the scores that result from those statistics.



Basic Statistics Reds Opponent
Bookings 3 2
Sendings Off 0 0
% Possession 49 51
% Territorial advantage 25 27
Shots at Goal 9 15
Shots on Target 4 5
Corners 7 8
Fouls 10 9


Share and Total Entertainment Points

Entertainment Points Reds Opponent

Possession (1 point for each 1% +/- 50%) -1 1
Territory (1 point for each 1% +/- 50%) -2 2
Corners (1 point each) 7 8
Fouls (-1 point each) -10 -9
Bookings (-5 points each) -15 -10
Sending Off (-10 point each) 0 0
Shots (5 points each) 45 75
Shots on target (5 points each) 20 25
Goals (10 points each) 20 10
Total Entertainment Points 64 102
Bonus Points
Hat-trick (+/-10)
Winning goal in added time (+/-10)
Winning from being behind (1 gl) (+/-10) 10 -10
Winning from being behind (2 gls) (+/-30)
Winning from being behind (3 gls) (+/-50)
Penalty save (+/-10)
Other -
Total Bonus Points 10 -10

Match points (Entertainment Index) 74 92
Total points (Entertainment Index) 166

Performance Index -28 28

 

Behave yourself, soft lad. It's just your take, not a confession, ffs Stop with the self-flagellation; if it's so painful to post, then don't do it. We don't need all the am-dram.

 

To be fair, you can't use that as a criticism because that is exactly how that system is meant to work. The best example of it is seeing what Henderson does for Liverpool when Alexander Arnold bombs forward.

Now, there is a very good argument that this wasn't being done earlier in the season.

 

One point I would make is that I'm surprised how often (even teams that are dominant within a game) rely upon "lucky" goals for victory.

I reminded myself of the Arsenal / Aston Villa encounter a few weeks ago. Arsenal scored THREE: One from a Corner; One Penalty; One Deflected Shot. For all their superiority, Manchester City also needed a "Deflected" goal to beat Chelsea.

 

I’m always gentle. I bring my own lube.