Pre-match Minority Report v Swansea City

It is a basic principle of Minority Report that I use logic to comment upon the game and the decisions of the coach and the players. However, it is our new coach’s first game on Wednesday, and I thought just as a change, I would try out his shoes, I would state in advance the changes that I would make. I can then make comparisons with what he actually does on Wednesday in the real Minority Report.


What do we know about Asbaghi and his style of play? We know that he is a believer in the press and we know that he favours 4 at the back. We changed to a back 4 at Fulham on Saturday, presumably in order to try and match their system. It was a change that was unlikely to work. We changed to an unfamiliar system, against the best attacking team in the league which was already familiar with how to play that way and comfortable in doing so. It was desperate, and I hope that Asbaghi will not make desperation part of his match day planning. He will want to change the way that the team plays in the longer term, but the team needs to win, and changing too quickly is a way of ensuring that the team loses what little remaining confidence it has. Personally, I would stay with the familiar for now, and I would only change the system when I think the team is ready, because they have shown understanding and belief in it, in training. In spite of what I said recently about moving to a back 4, I would stick with 3-4-3 for now. Swansea will play the same system.


Last season, the press and 3-4-3 was very successful. The way to engineer more confidence is to return to the principles that brought that success. I described it as anti-football last season, but challenging times call for familiar solutions. Hitting long passes into the space behind opposition full backs, and using the forward press to keep it there, was the reason the tactic was successful. It was supported by high wing backs and a central midfield pairing whose job it was to read the play. The weakness of the system is the space behind our 2 wing backs. That means that when the opposition attacks that space, our 2 wide centre backs have to go wide in order to meet that threat, and as we saw in the last home game, that brings those 2 players into a vacant area of the pitch that favours the pace of their wide opponent. If our centre backs are not first to the ball, they are going to be beaten for pace, and that means that the forward press must destroy the accuracy of the ball forward, otherwise we see the problem that we saw against Hull City in the last home game. Furthermore, it is the job of our central 2 midfield players to cover our remaining central centre back, and it is important that they are good readers of the play, because they have to pick the right time to move from supporting the forward press, to supporting the lone central defender. If they do not do it right, then Helik gets isolated in space, and he goes from looking a very good centre back, to looking a liability as he is static, exposed to pace and a forward with the ball at his feet who can go round him either to his left, or his right. It is clear this season that 3-4-3 is only as effective defensively as the effectiveness of the forward press. This season, the forward press has been less intense, and less effective, but otherwise, the systems of the two coaches were similar.


Of course, there are reasons why the press has been less effective this season. The injury list that our new coach (Markus Schopp) faced did not help. There are only 3 substitutes this season, meaning that if you keep back one substitute for injuries, you can only change 2 of the 3 pressers. You do not have Mowatt at the core of our central midfield 4, and in losing Mowatt, you have lost our leader and our best reader of the game. The guy who decided what phase of the game was appropriate throughout the game. It is only recently that I have understood how important Mowatt was to the system that we used last year, and why Ismael was so keen to take Mowatt with him to West Brom. Those are the problems that Asbaghi must solve if he is to continue, albeit temporarily, with the 3-4-3 system which is familiar.


The first thing he needs to find is a pressing player who can last for 90 minutes, and who can still be going strong in the final 10 minutes. I see only one candidate. Cauley Woodrow’s game has been exposed by second tier football. He does not have the pace to play as an out and out striker, and would be more effective as a striker in a front 2 beside a big man, but if we want to play a forward press, he is the only one of our forward pressers who could last the full 90 minutes. Consequently, he is the first name on my team sheet. Frankly, the other members of the pressing team are less easy to pick. We need 2 players to play for the first hour, and 2 players to play for the final 30 minutes. It would be great if they were goal scorers, but their main function is to work, because their work is the first line to our defence. Last season, Carlton Morris was a regular in our pressing 3, but he will not yet be fit enough to press for an hour. Dominik Frieser was also a regular member of the pressing team, with Adeboyejo tending to be used for the final 30 minutes. There is no evidence that Cole, Leya Iseka or Oulare have the necessary endurance. So we currently have only Frieser who can reliably press for an hour, and that is our first problem in maintaining an effective press for the whole of the 90 minutes. It raises the question whether a midfield player could be brought into the team as a stand-in forward until Morris is fit enough to play the press for an hour, with Clarke Oduor or Romal Palmer being the obvious candidates for that role.


The next unit of the team that I want to tackle is the midfield 4. I do not believe that Styles is strong enough to play as one of the middle 2, and therefore if we are to find room for him in the team, he has to play left wing back. My other wing back is Callum Brittain. That leaves the middle 2 and we need someone to fill the shoes of Mowatt as leader and reader for the team from midfield. Gomes was brought to the club to do exactly that, but he has struggled and he is also struggling with injury. The question is this. Should the vital Mowatt position be filled by a defender as a safety first reaction to adversity, or should the coach take a risk. As I see it, the candidates for the 2 remaining places are Jasper Moon, Josh Benson, Claudio Gomes or Romal Palmer (meaning Oduor would play as the 3rd forward presser). It is a risk, but I would risk Gomes and Palmer, but only because all the other options represent an even bigger risk.


With Aapo Halme being injured and Liam Kitching being doubtful, the back 3 virtually picks itself. It is Sibbick, Helik and Andersen.


My purpose in going through the thought processes in picking a team to play the way that Ismael’s team played last year is that I wanted readers to try to follow the logic of why these decisions are hard when you have the responsibility for picking a team that function in a way that is greater than the sum of the individual parts. The players have to be brought together as a functioning team that look after each other. It is not just a case of picking the best eleven and expecting that eleven to function as a team. The team did that last season, but the magic dust provided by Valerian Ismael is not magic dust at all. It is the coming together of talents that fit the circumstances and the patterns of play. When the players change, when circumstances change, then even the same system under the same coach does not function as well. That is what we have at Barnsley, and that is the new problem that Asbaghi must solve. It is not the same problem, at all. The problem is always a new one because there is always a new mind sitting in the opposition dug out.

 

I don't think Poya will go down that route. His stated intention is to make the best of the players he has, by playing them in their best positions. It follows therefore that he will choose his system to fit the players, rather than making the players fit a system.

 

If we play 3-4-3 on Wednesday night, we're doomed. Doomed I tell ya

 

Looked on the Swansea forum to see what they think about the game tomorrow night.....

https://planetswans.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=6404

Oddly as a guest just browsing the forum I was able to vote for a Barnsley win in their poll It would be amusing to them if all of a sudden a Swansea forum had a landslide vote that Barnsley was going to win.....

 

I think a few members of the BBS have been on there looking at those figures

 

The biggest problem is that we really struggled against Swansea last year with these tactics with a team considerably better drilled and with superior personnel. Admittedly Swansea are weaker but they certainly had our number last year.

I don’t have the answer and think it’s a very interesting piece you’ve written, I’ll wait to see the team tomorrow and hope for a change of fortune.

 

The reason I wrote the piece was to illustrate the problems faced by Asbaghi if he wants to play an intensive pressing system. They are the same problems that Schopp faced and they are the reason that Schopp had to compromise. It is an attempt to lower expectations, rather than increase them. It is an attempt to try to get people thinking about the problems, rather than just assuming that the solution is to do the same things as Ismael did, and everything will be OK. Any head coach would have the same problems as I have highlighted if he wants to play the kind of press we saw when Ismael was in charge.

 

We did play a different kind of press under Struber that worked with three subs though, and with less experienced players. I know he'd had his head turned and left under a bit of a cloud, but he was very tactically astute and did a job almost as impressive as Ismael.

 

Trouser press.

 

Be interesting to see the team and our set up tonight . I’d favour an extra midfielder as to having 3 strikers .

 

I think the biggest problem that Schopp had, with setting up the press, was that it's the complete opposite of how he's generally set teams up at previous clubs. We were so easily cut open, at any point in a game, that it has to be put down to the team's organisation, rather than fitness (which is also an issue that Asbaghi will need to content with).

 

Will there be a Bossman Pre-Match Majority Report?

 

Red Rain OUT - wants to bring Oduor back into the front line

Its an interesting one but I'm hoping new manager bounce like v Derby may give us that required lift which may set us on a run and then with fresh ideas and new energy may see us sustain it a little longer this time to start pickup up points turning losses into draws and draws into wins,

 

Easy to say after the event but......when Schopp picked Odour up front after all previous managers kept him benched, I Had serious doubts about his appointment,
I also think one of the issues with a new manager is that they all seem to give the players a clean slate and this sometimes leads to some getting more chances than enough,
Hope Poya doesn’t play Odour up front ffs!

 

Good analysis thank you, clearly the lack of press from the front 3 and playing the same high line and pushed on wing backs has killed us again and again this season - that has to change - either the press needs to be re-introduced or we need to sit off.

 

I believe the Struber press worked with just 2 forwards because of the athleticism of Jacob Brown. When Brown left for Stoke, there was no-one else to fill the gap.

 

I agree Jacob Brown was an athletic, physical forward, but if fit Carton Morris could hopefully carry out that role. Or maybe Leya Iseka.
The Struber diamond also pressed for 90 minutes too, though with the left and right centre midfielders covering the width of the pitch and either the attacking midfield dropping in, or the defensive midfielder pushing up to fill the gaps.
It was organisation, tactical nouse and positional play that was clearly instilled in the players in training. It must have been, because this season under Schopp we haven't got any where near those performances. I never thought I'd say that Ritzmaier might get into our midfield again!

 

I think an average group of players, that are well organised and have clear plan, will more often than not beat a poorly coach group of quality players (unless the gulf in quality is absolutely huge). I'm not sure Ritzmaier would get anywhere near our midfield if the team were well organised.

Hopefully the new coach can get that organisation and plan right.