Get Boosted Now & ignore the last week.

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by DavidCurriesMullet, Dec 12, 2021.

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  1. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    And you wouldn’t want the same organisation to model realistic other possible scenarios so you can weigh up the benefit of the decisions you’re making?

    How do you make informed decisions if you emit some of the most likely scenarios and models?
     
    Loko the Tyke, Dec 18, 2021
    #401
  2. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Certainly doesn't fit record numbers of infections on a daily basis and growing numbers of hospitalisations.
     
    orsenkaht, Dec 18, 2021
    #402
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  3. Farnham_Red

    Farnham_Red Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    I read the thread on this on Twitter. If I understand it correctly they are not taking a “reasonable worst case” as they are assuming the effects of Omicron are the same as Alpha and Delta. All the evidence is it’s much milder and from the not allowed model show hospitals will be less stressed than last year if we do nothing as far fewer will be in hospital and for much shorter.

    The cynic in me wonders if The Blonde Clown is more concerned with distraction from their contempt for us last Christmas than actually doing the best for everyone
     
    Farnham_Red, Dec 18, 2021
    #403
  4. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    Pretty much all of that. And not specifically asking for real time data and models - just the worst case scenarios.

    Which explains why SAGE have been wrong at almost every corner but the public have been forced to lap it up
     
    Loko the Tyke, Dec 18, 2021
    #404
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  5. Redstone

    Redstone Well-Known Member

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    I assume you mean this

    20211218_193657.jpg 20211218_193659.jpg
     
    Redstone, Dec 18, 2021
    #405
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  6. Redstone

    Redstone Well-Known Member

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    So if further restrictions are needed does that mean the vaccine isn't our route back to normal?
     
    Redstone, Dec 18, 2021
    #406
  7. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    Hospitalisations at 7,500 as a seven day average and down on most dates in November and flat with most of December. A high percentage of those not even going in to hospital with Covid.
     
    Loko the Tyke, Dec 18, 2021
    #407
  8. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    The current rate of growth really renders those figures irrelevant though, doesn't it? It won't take a very high percentage rate of hospitalizations at all to cause very serious problems. I expect further restrictions very soon - even though Boris would be dicing with political death if he imposes them.
     
    orsenkaht, Dec 18, 2021
    #408
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  9. Gimson&theBarnsleys

    Gimson&theBarnsleys Well-Known Member

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    I agree. And why isn't what isn't happening in South Africa being reported?
     
    Gimson&theBarnsleys, Dec 18, 2021
    #409
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  10. Redstone

    Redstone Well-Known Member

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    Sadly I expect them too. Like last year when we had a 4wk circuit breaker lockdown last November to save Xmas. What did that achieve? Another 3 months of lockdown and many more months of restrictions. Wonder if we'll fo early or late next year, it's a bit like Easter in that it's a moveable feast.
     
    Redstone, Dec 18, 2021
    #410
  11. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    Your last post mentioned increased hospitalisations. I’m just pointing out there isn’t an increase vs. December and a decrease vs. many November dates. Also pointing out that the hospitalisation number is massively skewed by how many people aren’t going to hospital because they have Covid.

    Only sharing the truths. It might spike upwards, but right now it isn’t.
     
    Loko the Tyke, Dec 18, 2021
    #411
  12. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    1.7% of SA cases are leading to hospitalisations. In the last wave it was something like 17%.

    No increase in ICU needs despite rising cases either. These are the facts as they are today.
     
    Loko the Tyke, Dec 18, 2021
    #412
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  13. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Looks a certainty from what I read. Can we afford to wait and see?
     
    orsenkaht, Dec 18, 2021
    #413
  14. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    I’d say the evidence suggests we can when you take a holistic view of the damage lockdowns cause. But my main point was to correct you on the hospitalisations number - saying it’s increasing now and saying it will increase in the future are two different things.
     
    Loko the Tyke, Dec 18, 2021
    #414
  15. Redstone

    Redstone Well-Known Member

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    Maybe it will, what did you read? Because I think the point is the reporting is far from balanced, its just sensationalist fear mongering in many places.
     
    Redstone, Dec 18, 2021
    #415
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  16. Redstone

    Redstone Well-Known Member

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    Yes if lockdowns were a clinical trial I would like go think they would have been stopped due to the damage they cause to public health.
     
    Redstone, Dec 18, 2021
    #416
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  17. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    According to The Times today the seven day rolling average for hospitalisations was 760 on 1 December and has risen since to 865 for the most recent-reported figure to 13 December. As infections are increasing daily it seems inevitable that the number of hospitalisations will also rise - possibly dramatically.
     
    orsenkaht, Dec 18, 2021
    #417
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  18. SuperTyke

    SuperTyke Well-Known Member

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    I someone argue this perfectly today. Men get erections. They just do. If hospitals were to constantly inspect every man in hospital for erections they would quite legitimately be able to say that there are thousands of men in hospital with an erection. Some of them will have even had an erection when they were sitting in a&e. Of course the amount of men in hospital because of an erection is much much lower and that is what's important.
     
    SuperTyke, Dec 18, 2021
    #418
  19. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Are you on the right forum?
     
    orsenkaht, Dec 18, 2021
    #419
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  20. SuperTyke

    SuperTyke Well-Known Member

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    Hospitalisations with or due to covid?

    The higher the number of people who harmlessly have covid the higher the number of people who will test positive for covid at a hospital. In a similar manner the number of people admitted to Tesco with covid has risen dramatically over the last month. The amount of people admitted to Tesco due to covid hasn't.
     
    SuperTyke, Dec 18, 2021
    #420
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