Get Boosted Now & ignore the last week.

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by DavidCurriesMullet, Dec 12, 2021.

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  1. Deafening Silence

    Deafening Silence Well-Known Member

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    upload_2021-12-18_20-13-42.png
    upload_2021-12-18_20-14-19.png

    From an overwhelming of the NHS point of view, these are the important graphs.

    Even in August, where we had a peak in cases almost equal to the first peak, the number of hospitalisations remained low.

    Personally I think the vaccine is helping keep these cases down, as the only other explanation is that the majority of people susceptible to dying from COVID have already done so.
     
    Deafening Silence, Dec 18, 2021
    #421
  2. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Logically, I assume that they are reporting the number of admissions due to Covid. Anything else doesn't really make sense, does it?
     
    orsenkaht, Dec 18, 2021
    #422
  3. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    I think that might be ICU numbers? Too low for hospitalisations I think. You have to factor seasonality as well as previous December trends.
     
    Loko the Tyke, Dec 18, 2021
    #423
  4. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    They’re not reporting that. Hence my post earlier about 111 of 169 ‘Covid Hospitalisations’ being non-Covid but a positive test once there (in London hospitals)
     
    Loko the Tyke, Dec 18, 2021
    #424
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  5. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Their chart says hospitalisations. It doesn't say ICU numbers, so I take it at face value.
     
    orsenkaht, Dec 18, 2021
    #425
  6. SuperTyke

    SuperTyke Well-Known Member

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    But they aren't. Or if they are then it's a complete change from how they've reported it throughout the pandemic which has been to report how many people are admitted after testing positive and then how many people are in hospital after testing positive in the same manner as they give stats out on how many have died for any reason within 28 days of testing positive rather than how many people have died due to covid.
     
    SuperTyke, Dec 18, 2021
    #426
  7. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    Could be seven day average as a week then vs. a day. Who knows. But that would make sense as they could then present a bleaker picture.

    ICU beds are actually pretty flat which is another positive right now. Touch wood
     
    Loko the Tyke, Dec 18, 2021
    #427
  8. Bet

    Better_Red_Than_Dead Well-Known Member

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    The numbers are usually people in hospital with COVID rather than because of COVID. Its hard to count those in hospital because of COVID, mainly because it becomes a bit subjective - there’ll be lots of people in hospital with complex conditions where COVID was a factor in their admission but not the only factor. Easier to count those in ICU, particularly if they’re being ventilated, because that tends to be a more objective measure.

    And the number in hospital with COVID is important because they have to be managed differently, even if COVID isn’t the reason they were hospitalised, which means impacts on staffing, beds, space etc.
     
    Better_Red_Than_Dead, Dec 18, 2021
    #428
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  9. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure why The Times would want to paint a bleaker picture. I'm glad you can see positives though. I think I would incline to a more pessimistic outlook towards the current situation.
     
    orsenkaht, Dec 18, 2021
    #429
  10. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    Just basing my outlook on the data we know today. Whilst admitting it’s no guarantee that we’ll definitely avoid a spike. Reasons to be positive though if we use real data and not falsified or incorrect numbers. Fingers crossed!

    *Edit - the media have specialised in painting a bleaker picture since day one.
     
    Loko the Tyke, Dec 18, 2021
    #430
  11. pompey_red

    pompey_red Well-Known Member

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    Crucially… how many of those in Tesco with covid also had an erection?
     
    pompey_red, Dec 18, 2021
    #431
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  12. SuperTyke

    SuperTyke Well-Known Member

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    Mainly the guys with long trench coats hanging around the underwear section upstairs
     
    SuperTyke, Dec 18, 2021
    #432
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  13. Jimmy viz

    Jimmy viz Well-Known Member

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    Wherever you stand on all of this I think we can probably all agree that the hospitality industry has been treated incredibly poorly.
     
    Jimmy viz, Dec 18, 2021
    #433
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  14. casual tyke

    casual tyke Active Member

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    The Times want to paint a bleaker picture for the same reason all mainstream media outlets want to.

    A bleaker picture leads to increased fear among the masses. Increased fear leads to greater levels of compliance and a compliant population is more easily subjugated.
     
    casual tyke, Dec 18, 2021
    #434
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  15. Jimmy viz

    Jimmy viz Well-Known Member

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    SAGE have been pretty accurate really. Like all modelling it’s not an exact science but by and large they have done a good job.
     
    Jimmy viz, Dec 18, 2021
    #435
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  16. pon

    pontyender Well-Known Member

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    It's London where the hospitalisations are increasing most at the moment. There's 1,534 COVID-19 patients in hospital there at the moment, three weeks ago it was 989.
     
    pontyender, Dec 18, 2021
    #436
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  17. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    Im just basing my comment on this and the Live TV prediction/forecast, that wasn’t a prediction/forecast, of 100,000 cases a day in October.

    upload_2021-12-18_22-0-57.jpeg
     
    Loko the Tyke, Dec 18, 2021
    #437
  18. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    To my earlier comment and post, they aren’t going to hospital because of Covid. 111 of the 169 that went to London hospitals yesterday only tested positive from their test in the hospital.
     
    Loko the Tyke, Dec 18, 2021
    #438
  19. Jimmy viz

    Jimmy viz Well-Known Member

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    Fraser Nelson you can surely do a little better than that buffoon.

    As someone who has done modelling they will be asked to model across a range of scenarios. Mostly they have been fairly accurate. Sometimes they will get it wrong but here we are at 100k a day infections.

    The politicians have been the ones making all the ridiculous decisions. Sending out mixed messages but Whitty especially comes out of things brilliantly.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...tory-mp-joy-morrissey-who-to-believe-on-covid
     
    Jimmy viz, Dec 18, 2021
    #439
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  20. Loko the Tyke

    Loko the Tyke Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    As I’ve mentioned elsewhere and in other discussions. It doesn’t matter who’s sharing the data or info providing it’s accurate.

    Whitty has given inaccurate data a couple of times at least, and essentially shut down hospitality this week - although the blame for that really lies elsewhere. I’m confused as to why it’s acceptable to only share the worst case scenario to the population without any commentary about what else they feel might happen - based on data.

    That prediction, that wasn’t a prediction, was laughed out of town the second he said it by the minority. But never challenged then, or now, by those who agreed with it.
     
    Loko the Tyke, Dec 18, 2021
    #440
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