So studies show that Omicron appears to result in a 70% reduction in hospitalisations

Key question is what does this mean for the case fatality rate of Omnicron? If it’s now similar to flu the case for continuing restrictions is weakening. At some point we’re going to have to stop asking people to self isolate if they’re asymptomatic as it’s not sustainable long term. I’m not saying that’s now, but if its natural evolution is to become weaker then a decision will have to be made sooner or later.

 

A positive LFT is only counted if it is not followed by a negative PCR within 72 hours. A positive LFT and a positive PCR is only counted once.

"COVID-19 cases are identified by taking specimens from people and testing them for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. If the test is positive this is referred to as a case. Some positive rapid lateral flow test results are confirmed with lab-based polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests taken within 72 hours. If the PCR test results are negative, these are no longer reported as confirmed cases. If a person has more than one positive test, they are only counted as one case for all nations with the exception of Wales. Cases data includes all positive lab-confirmed polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test results plus, in England, positive rapid lateral flow tests that are not followed by a negative PCR test taken within 72 hours."

 

Case rates have always and still are being reported as the number of positive PCRs. Although they ask you to report a positive LFD, it then gets combined into a single positive case for reporting if/when you have a positive confirmatory PCR. Rising rates are a combo of omicron spreading, it being winter and colder so more indoor mixing happening, and potentially more people testing in the run up to Xmas before going to see family etc.

Given the rapid increases we’re seeing I could see confirmatory PCR being scrapped at some point to try and preserve capacity, so a positive LFD would be enough to consider someone has COVID and trigger the need to self isolate.

Edit: basically what pontyender said much more quickly and more succinctly than I did

 

Keeping my fingers crossed that this data in total is good news. Wouldn’t have a clue either way. Unfortunately the nhs is so close to capacity every winter, that any sort of spike will be problematic. Especially given the absences currently within healthcare workers.

If only the 100s of billions of pounds that have gone to serco, pub landlords and other ministers’ mates had been invested in the NHS, and we didn’t have a government that hates foreigners so much that they’re happy to turn away staff in their droves. Maybe the tories should’ve thought about protecting the NHS instead of chronically underfunding it for 11 years.

I hope Johnson has landed on the correct decision on restrictions, but I suspect he’s more bothered about placating the lunatics on his back benches (those that have the audacity to describe themselves as libertarians, despite voting to remove peoples rights to protest, and taking away our freedom of movement) than he is about public health. Any correct decision will be more luck than judgement.

 

https://archive.md/1i0ar

If hospital stays with Omicron are around 3 days instead of around 9 with Delta that's great news to cut around 66% of an hospital stay.

 

Looks like we might have got lucky, with the delay in people becoming symptomatic there’s no evolutionary reason why a much more deadly and highly transmissible strain couldn’t appear. That’s why it’s viral we vaccinate the world and stop it from running free in places to mutate.

 

There seem to be reasons for optimism longer term from the media today, but equally every justification for remaining cautious until more is known - which should be just after Christmas. It seems that anecdotally, people have wisely taken Professor Whitty's message to heart. I wouldn't care to be entering licensed premises right now. Even if Omicron is less harmful I still don't want a belt of it.

 

As of the end of November she was the only Scottish leader with a positive personal rating.

https://www.heraldscotland.com/poli...pproval-rating-tumbles-yougov-poll/?ref=ebmpn

 

I don't think most reasonable people are suggesting we shouldn't be cautious. I also understand the theory that if we wait it might be too late. The flip side is if we keep working off a waste case scenario we'll never get anywhere. Imagine living your life applying the worse case scenario to everything?

 

Normality will return. We have to be patient. But I think it's prudent to contemplate the worst-case scenario, then to assess it's probability and work back from there. Beyond restrictions imposed by government, we each have to think about our own response to risk and act according to what we are comfortable with. There seem to be quite a few on here who are howling at the moon - many of them because of their own vested interests. I'm lucky not to have those pressures, so I'm more free to think what I want to.

 

In our lives we all make decisions, some which are right for you may be wrong for me and vice versa. Throughout the pandemic there have been people who want more restrictions and those who want less.

Whatever any government chooses will not suit a large amount of the population and that doesn’t only apply to COVID.

Freedom of choice/ speech is something which I believe is very important and is a cornerstone of our society.

If this disease frightens you you can choose to stay indoors, make sure you are fully vaccinated and wait until the pandemic has passed. Having considered life in the house for the next 30 years, I’m going to go out today, play a bit of golf, have a very boozy lunch and enjoy the day.

I have no doubt I will die, just hopefully not today, we’ll not before the 18th green anyway.

 

I'm no expert but just look at the rate of increase, 3 weeks ago we'd never heard of omicron, 2 weeks ago a few cases were identified in the UK, this week it's everywhere. I think even a competent government which acted promptly on scientific advice would be struggling to contain it.

 

and for all the actions of Drakeford, Wales has, over the whole pandemic, a higher case rate per head of population than England.

Public perception driven by action rather than results.

 

To name people directly or not is my choice, not yours. To do so would suggest a personal attack on people, which is not my usually preferred mode of discussion.

 

I honestly think this is a case of half understanding a half baked message.

It’s not your fault; the government’s comms has been awful throughout. And it doesn’t help that they’re trying to communicate a complex message, using simple language, and that bad agents then like to misrepresent what the government have said.

A quick Q, without looking it up, what reading age do you think government comms should be written to?

 

It’s mainly the press spin on things. A quick example.

“Schools plan for January lockdown” a recent massive headline

Joe public “the schools know something about a lockdown!! It’s definitely going to happen”

Schools find out about the lockdowns at the same time as everyone else. However, like with any organisation’s contingency plans need to be in place. Like have teachers got the right equipment if the lockdown happens… so when asked by anyone, a school would be stupid to say they don’t have plans for a lockdown.

The hysteria sells newspapers, creates a run on bog roll, etc. Karen from Facebook is up in arms with the school for ruining their Josh-Kanye’s edukation.

It’s not just the comms, but the means of distribution as well.

 

ha ha love the spelling of education, was looking to buy a lurcher pup the otherday and advert read "luverly lercher pups for sail", thought I cant buy off someone who cant spell lurcher

 

I have had covid twice, first time just as pandemic started 3 weeks in bed could hardly breath for one of weeks, got it now starting to feel better 4 days in, this 2nd one not got on my chest as bad as first by 90 percent I reckon, im double and booster ,is it that or is strain weaker, whatever thankful its not like first attack