Doug O'Kane transfer update

It's not really about even giving ourselves a chance of staying up, that's gone now for me. It's about trying to improve over the last 20 or so games and offering some hope for L1 next season.
I've said all along though that it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if we brought no one in at all in January to strengthen the squad.
Let's face it, Asbaghi and the CEO are nothing but puppets for Conway. The pair of them are a waste of space in terms of being any good for the club.

 

I can understand that sentiment, but if we judge things as they currently stand.

We're 8 points adrift of safety with a hugely inferior goal difference and have played a game more. We've only 2 wins in 24 and just 16 goals in that period. Under our new coach we've collected 3 points out of a possible 18 (3 out of 21 if you think he had influence on selection for the Fulham game).

We have a huge squad still (including many out on loan). We're likely to make a significant loss in the year to May 2021 and I suspect we're likely to make a decent loss to this point too.

So on one hand, we're way off survival. And on the other hand, we're incredibly cash poor and have little to no reserves available. The owners have always suggested they wouldn't put their hands in their pockets and their previous venture at OGC Nice saw a crippling loan agreement that came close to busting the club just to pay off their original purchase.

So given all that... how do you improve the squad while also staying solvent by generating considerable cash?

 

I'd argue his approach so far has been a slow and steady strangulation of any interest anyone has in the club. He couldn't say any less in his interviews if he simply refused to answer. No charisma no engagement, nothing. And he sets up the team to not concede goals,which we inevitably do. No attacking intent, few attempts at goal, even fewer goals, sometimes not even managing a corner, no wins, no entertainment, nothing. It's like supporting a hole without the sides, there's just nothing there.

 

I'd argue that if we appointed him based on how we perform against Accrington and Morecambe next season then, by definition, it was a failure at a time when we potentially still had a chance to stay up.

 

I can't see him being here next season if we're relegated. I've little doubt there will be a clause allowing him to be released for free (or very cheaply) upon relegation. That will allow our hubristic owners to apportion blame to the coach instead of having to look in the mirror and we go on to appoint another unsuspecting coach from the continent that scrapes through the Home Office criteria to start all over again.

 

If we sign anyone for a fee this window I'll be hugely surprised.

It'll be free-transfer dregs and a loan or two.

Loads to leave though, including some big first teamers.

Hope I'm wrong...

 

The club knew what they were doing

 

Makes no sense to buy anyone in the situation we're in. We do need a good 3-4 loans though to give us at least a fighting chance.

 

The really odd thing about the loan scenario was by all accounts Conway had been negotiating with American Banks for months but recommended the one they went with.
Personally if the option is to go down that route or not buy, I’d rather not buy

 

Not sure I agree that we have a huge squad. Yes we have a number out on loan but most of these are reserve players who have never featured in the first team. And the clubs loaning these lads will surely be paying some or all of the wages for these players therefore reducing our wage bill overall.

Not expecting them to dip into their pockets and spend millions. But we are 8 points from safety with woeful form staring relegation in the face which will lead to a 6 million drop in revenue for them to deal with. Surely with that been said, you would assume they would have something lined up early in the window to try and drag us out of the bottom three and give us some chance of survival. Even if it was a few short term loans to give us some chance of improvement without having to spend loads.

The fact we seem to have absolutely nothing happening makes me wonder what they are all even doing. We are 3 points above a team that were deducted 21 points and they don't seem to give two hoots. It's beyond a joke. I don't expect multi million pound bids to be flying in for Haaland and co. but I would expect them to have been working on some deals.

 

I think you probably could, given current balance of squad. You could sell two out of Collins, Styles and Woodrow, and replace with grown up midfielders and the first 11 would improve. Even if they came in on loan. Helik is probably the most likely to be sold though sadly.

 

We have 33 players including those out on loan who have played a game for the first team, plus Aitchison, Christie-Davies and Vita.

That's having offloaded 2 already. Given we have a matchday squad of just 18, I'd consider that a large squad.

We run on an operating loss that is subsidised to break even from player sales. So if we sell 1 or 2 for average profits, we're still only likely to be breaking even. If we sell 1 or 2 for very significant profit, then you might have a chance to reinvest some of that on taking a punt to stay up while having a bit of a buffer for next season should we go down.

There are no cash reserves left. So if we were to splash out to try and stay up, we are in the world of loans and indebtedness.

Given the situation, I'd be more expectant that no incomings occur before we see if any decent sized bids come in for our higher earners.

There is a scenario where we spend on incomings and still go down. That's an even bigger headache to contend with.

Personally, I'm not going to criticise if we sell half the squad this window. Unless they pocket some of that money as I suspect they would.

 

I get the feeling that cash is king. Spending money now does not guarantee survival but will make the wage bill higher. Agents are unlikely to allow a relegation clause inserting into their client’s contract in the current predicament if they are signing.

To me this transfer window will be one of trying to reduce the wage bill and bringing cash in.

I think it has been made clear that any transfers will have to be self-financing so expect players out before any modest incomings. I think Georgi’s record is safe for another window.

 

Kane and Frieser must have been on a fortune if releasing one and letting the other stay our on loan means it has freed up enough for some experience.

 

I disagree. Why pay Schopp off ( who at least managed a win) if there was no intention to try and stay up? More good money after bad imo, Vita has been here half a season, not played once and we supposedly are relying on him for cover at LB. Other than he comes over to clap the fans what difference is he making compared to Schopp?

Look at the Fowls to see how an appointment like this will work next season (and at least Darren Moore has experience in the championship/league 1)

 

Don’t think either of them are tragedies which we certainly are this season

 

I just don't see it. We're likely to need close to 2 points per game over the rest of the season. We look fragile at the back, invisible in midfield and our attack is toothless. A handful of loans with experience are unlikely to happen given the owners zealotry to their "plan" and I'm not sure there are too many of those available where you wouldn't have to pay a decent signing on fee.

We also have to see if the market has recovered to any degree. None of our players are going to attract PL interest, so we're down to a handful of clubs in England that might be able to spend slightly, and in most cases, I'm not sure our players would improve their set ups. Styles is probably the most obvious but has had a poor season so far and Helik might attract interest on the continent but I don't think we'll get much for him compared to the summer.

So given all the factors, the safest in my mind is take our medicine, sell what we can for what we can to stay afloat and reduce the wage bill for next season.

 

Didn't I read that Oxford had paid us to remove the break clause from Kane's contract? I assume the value of that will be similar to his wages for the rest of the season.
Frieser might well have been on decent wages as an Austrian brought in by Struber. Wasn't Ritzmaier one of our higher paid players?

 

Would we accept selling three of Collins, Helik, Woodrow and Styles if a) it meant the club were financially viable despite relegation and b) if we got in some experienced loans to replace them until the end of the season if it gave us a fighting chance of staying up.

 

It’s all just one long drawn out Greek Tragedy