It's always fun to look at prediction models. This one reckons 4th bottom will be on 42. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/
That looks plausible though I am surprised it has given us so many points - if we go down with 36points its still decent from where we were 2 weeks ago On yesterdays showing I cant see Hull getting 48 I still think we are down but at least if we went down fighting like against QPR and Hull I would have more hope for next season
So maybe 22 points needed from: Middlesborough (H) Derby (A) Stoke (H) Fulham (H) Bristol City (H) Sheff U (A) Reading (H) Millwall (A) Swansea (A) Peterborough (H) Huddersfield (A) Blackpool (H) Preston (H) West Brom (A) Being optimistic I can see maybe 7 potential wins there. Being realistic maybe it would be good to just get to a relatively respectable points tally and at least go down fighting.
Have to win Bristol, Reading Millwall, Peterborough Blackpool and Preston and not lose to Derby and then get one more win that would get us to 43 points and that might be enough It would be great if we can beat Boro but I would be happy with a loss if we bounce back and beat Derby of course lose the next 2 and all this unwanted hope can go back where it came from
Reading have 29 points and 13 games left. It's not inconceivable that they average a nominal 1 point a game for the rest of the season and finish on 42. They could do better, and they seem to be hitting a bit of form, plus their goal difference is slightly better than ours too, so its prudent to assume we'd need the extra point to be above them. That would mean we'd need 23 points from our remaining 14 games, and of course, Derby could still put in a surge, and we don't know if Peterborough will get a new manager bounce.
I'm going off the second half performance against Sheff Utd. I'm guessing Middlesbrough will set up like they did.
They're on a roll. Right up in the play off spots. Wilder won't let them be complacent, has the managerial skills to change things when necessary. Think it'll be a tough game to get something from.
That would be very Struber-esque. Didn't we lose to Charlton that season and failed to beat both Wigan and Luton, despite being Forest, Brentford, Fulham (x2) etc...
We do. But if we match the three above us or better them and we've gone all out for the win and played well but drawn it wouldn't be disastrous.
I agree. It's the stage of the season for massive highs and crippling lows. I'd be down if we lost on Saturday. It's the nine point gap we need to focus on though. Can't let it get any bigger.