Russia invades Ukraine

I liked him.

Here's some great words by Rory, eight years ago now, that seem very fitting at present.

SHOULD WE BE WORRIED ABOUT PUTIN’S RUSSIA?
10/11/2014

Should we be worried about Putin’s Russia? For fifteen years, the establishment answer has been ‘no.’ Despite a Russian-backed cyber-attack on Estonia in 2007, despite the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008, despite the assassination of Litvinenko with radioactive plutonium in a Chelsea hotel by the Russian secret service in 2006, Russia has often been treated as a promising ally. Three days before Russia annexed Crimea, the British parliament was assured that it would never happen.

Then Russia took Crimea, and Russian backed separatists shot down a passenger plane and killed hundreds. Again the West predicted that Russia would apologise and pull back. Instead Russian television, and the websites under Kremlin control, insisted that a Russian minority was under threat from ‘‘Nazis’, convinced anti-Americans in Europe that Russia was only defending itself against America, while telling Euro-sceptics that they were defending themselves against the European Union. Meanwhile, Moscow-based Special Forces and intelligence officers ultimately backed by conventional Russian forces seized Eastern Ukraine. And Putin’s popularity ratings climbed over 80 per cent.

Britain and the United States had convinced Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons, and promised to defend it from attack. We did nothing. Instead, some of us defended Putin, arguing that even Ukraine was ‘really part of Russia’. Really? Almost every one of the 15 independent states of the former Soviet Union could be described as ‘really’ part of the old Russian Empire. Our NATO allies, Estonia and Latvia, contain significant Russian populations. And Russia is not the only European country that has a ‘historical’ or ‘ethnic’ claim to part of its neighbours. Would we allow the same claims from Prussians in the Baltic, Hungarians in Romania, Romanians in Moldova, and Germans in Czechoslovakia?

Putin has now committed to spending a further $720 billion on upgrading his military equipment – particularly his nuclear arsenal. He is paranoid about being ‘encircled’. What will Putin do next if he feels his position is under threat in Moscow, and he or a successor need to appeal to nationalists to bolster their position? Putin has insisted that Estonia – like Crimea – is ‘not a real country’; and that the Baltic governments, are fascist sympathisers who oppress their ‘Russian minorities’. What conclusions will other regimes draw when they see Putin violently annex neighbouring territory, and ‘get away with it’?

Britain can help to minimise these dangers. But we must begin by acknowledging the threat, instead of hoping it goes away. The Advanced Research and Assessment group which tracked Russia for our Ministry of Defence was shut down in 2010. The Ukraine desk officer post was chopped in 2012, and by early 2014, defence intelligence had only two individuals studying Russian military policy. Our policy will only ever be good as our understanding. We should bring back the people who understand Russia. And among them should be a team, continually prepared to challenge us and present the Russian point of view and the Russian tactics: however uncomfortable and unwelcome they may seem.

Putin has relied on cyber attacks, and propaganda. So Britain must invest much more heavily in NATO centres of excellence for cyber defence (where we currently have only one member) and in strategic communications (where we have none). We need to provide high quality, entertaining and objective BBC World Service programming, as an alternative to Russian propaganda in the Baltic. And we must show – sensibly and clearly – that although we have no aggressive intentions towards Russia, we are entirely committed to defending NATO members on Russian borders. NATO troops need to be brought to a higher state of readiness, they must undertake much larger scale exercises, and develop better contingency plans for defence against planes, submarines, and tanks (none of which were owned by our enemies in Afghanistan or Iraq).

Above all, the time has come for Britain and its NATO allies to demonstrate that we are serious. Russia – which is currently defining the narrative in Syria, holding cards in Iran, manipulating Armenia, intimidating the Baltics, and destabilising Ukraine – is a country with an economy smaller than Britain’s. But it spends more than twice what Britain does on Defence. We may not want to match Russian spending, but we should at the very least commit to not cutting our spending below our current level of 2 per cent of GDP.

Until Putin’s actions, Ukraine – for all its complex history and tensions – had at least been peaceful for sixty years. Then Russian Special Forces intervened, seized military bases, and armed separatists. Now we have civil war – rockets plunging into cities, volunteer militia groups sprouting up, thousands killed and maimed, a shattered economy, and hatreds that will not be quelled for decades. In the process, Russia has created a ‘safe-haven’ for a new breed of insurgents with Russian military training and equipment. These men did what no Taliban or ISIL fighter has been able to do – shot down a civilian passenger plane, flying at 30,000 feet. They killed more foreign civilians in a single attack than in any ‘failed state’, since 9/11. And they did so in a European country, directly bordering NATO, and the European Union. If you want to understand why Britain helped to create the UN and NATO, why we have a defence budget, and why we must defend international borders, then just look at the horror in Ukraine, today.

https://www.rorystewart.co.uk/worried-putins-russia/

 

Maybe the Oligarchs will come to their senses and remove him , most of them made their fortunes under Yeltsin anyway

 

Depends what 'defeat' looks like I suppose and who you ask. From what I read there's a lot of probing going on by the Russians and progress is slow but still taking place despite some relatively heavy losses and poor tactics. Theyve apprently only committed about half of their troops so far and they'll certainly need more that is in the country at the moment. Some military experts seem to think they are slowly closing in on cities and defensive lines are being breached. I guess only time will tell.

 

Abandoned Ukranian positions. Pretty fking grim.

 

The Russian military, whatever else you could say about them, since the war have proved to be rational.
If he tells his Generals to push the button when they are not under attack, I don't think they will do it.
Just to add to that, he may not be popular in military circles, he's never been a fighting man like they are, he's been a KGB man, political types like that may not always be well regarded amongst the ones expected to do the fighting.

 

Hope you’re right for the sake of the world.
As someone who turned 40 last week, I never thought I’d see war in Europe in my life time. Especially not with the overhanging threat of nuclear weapons being deployed.

 

Not that I'm a military expert, but I fear the worst is yet to come.

There are parallels here with the Nazi invasion of Poland. Most think the Blitzkreig was over in a few days. In fact, Polish resistance lasted almost five weeks.

Taking a city is very difficult. The panzer, thought to be unstoppable, was vulnerable in the streets of Warsaw’s outskirts. The initial assault was called off after the Poles destroyed 80 tanks from a force of 220.

My guess is Putin will do what the Germans did to Warsaw. Encircle the city and target it with missiles, artillery and bombs. Should Putin decide to order such brutality, the Ukrainians would have little option but to give up their fight. Well, the ones left alive anyway.

No matter what the reports, we won’t know the extent of the slaughter until much later. 25,000 civilians died in Warsaw in September 1939. In total the invasion cost 55,000 civilian lives

This could easily turn into - perhaps it already has - a war of annihilation and the Ukrainians know it. Have you seen the picture of a mother and her little daughter being instructed on how to use assault rifles?

My only hope is that the Russian military call time on all this.

 

It certainly seems that he thought a quick drive to Kiev, capture the parliament building and it would be all over. What they won't want is too many ground troops trapped in a huge city with a hostile armed population, it ballsed up the coalition plans in Mosul and Basra and they are cities with half the population of Kiev.

 

Now that Putin has put his nuclear strategic force on "Special Alert" apparently their highest level this is starting to get really scary. IMHO the only way out of this mess will be from within and a revolt of high ranking officials and military. Lavrov, his foreign secretary, appears as belligerent as Putin but one has to wonder if , as sadbrewer has said, any of the military would have the stomach to initiate WW3 and the total destruction of life on this planet (and their own) as we know it.

Reports coming from Ukraine (obviously there is a lot of propaganda incoming) if true, seem to imply that the invading troops on the ground are not really commited to Putin's 'cause' , especially if the reports of mass protests back 'home' are filtering through to them.
Putin supporters of his war, in Russia who get their information mainly from State TV, tend to be the older generation, and the conscripts and regular army units in Ukraine comprise the internet savvy younger generation for whom Communist Soviet Russia/USSR is just history.
Reports of numbers of soldiers surrendering to one or two Ukranian civil defence personnel does not seem to imply a highly motivated invading force. 4 days in and, again, if it is true they have still not captured any major city or town, that only adds to the view that Putin and the command (who are already struggling with logistics with tanks and troop carriers running out of fuel and shortages of munitions), are in a mess.

Talk that they have only committed 50% of ground forces and are now sending in the remainder seems logical but if they are struggling to supply only 50% on the front line how the hell are they going to service and supply twice as many tanks, artillery, and ground troops? Also tanks artillery and missiles are not much use if urban warfare fighting is taking place street to street since you risk killing your own troops. The tighter the noose closes around the defenders, one suspects the more desparate the situation becomes, the harder the Ukrainians will fight. The more body bags start shipping back to Russia the louder and less controllable will be the protests.

The big concern is will Putin then panic and go for the nuclear option in Ukraine and if so, will his generals sanction that? That would lead to certain escalation......

 

"War does not determine who is right - only who is left." - Winston Churchill quotation after WW1 (disputed)

 

Even for him that would be a bit crazy? Drop a nuclear bomb on Kiev, wipes out Belarus....effectively still Russia, drop one on Donetsk, wipes out part of Russia. That's the thing with nuclear.... they're not very tactical.

I guess nuclear doesn't happen until NATO is involved and he can drop one further afield. By which time.........

 

Starting to regret buying those unripe bananas.

 

Err...tactical nuclear weapons, small nuclear warheads and delivery systems intended for use on the battlefield or for a limited strike. Less powerful than strategic nuclear weapons, tactical nuclear weapons are intended to devastate enemy targets in a specific area without causing widespread destruction and radioactive fallout.

I believe Putin has a lot of these (Around 1600!!)

 

I hate this Government with a passion!

 

Hmmm, not convinced.......that was kind of my point, they may be called tactical, but it's something of a misnomer. Who knows, no one's ever tried one in anger, I'm betting the fallout (intended) is more far reaching and less controllable than intended (or not).

 

The problem for Putin if Ukraine keep fighting is that they have a supply line of weapons from the West via Poland that he can do little about , our antitank and anti aircraft weaponry is top grade stuff , as we have seen a small well equipped army can cause the Russian Army a lot of problems . The obvious result could be that Ukraine ends up a pile of rubble like most of Syria

 

Ukrainian farmer stealing a tank (might not be be a tank).

 

I've got this feeling that Zelensky and his delegation are heading into an ambush for these peace talks. Belarus isn't neutral. Russia will assassinate him in order to try and break the resolve of Ukraine.

 

Zelenskky won’t be going himself, but wouldn’t be surprised if something underhanded goes off