Inflation

Like whom?

 

Im not sure where you're looking Dave - German inflation is at its highest for 40 years. They're in real trouble.

 

Can you give examples please, rather than just making up statements that are patently falsehoods.

Also - 'Covid deniers' - can you explain that silly statement please?

 

7% and the BFC season ticket 'when is a price freeze not a price freeze' 15-20% increases haven't even fed through to the CPI yet!

Meanwhile Tesco made just the odd £2 billion in profits

 

He’s here look.

Dear me.

Don’t you question your own rhetoric when countries which have had (and still have) many tighter covid restrictions than us are not facing the same economic catastrophe? Or at least not as severely?

Don’t let that get in the way of hijacking another thread to subtly tell us that you don’t think we should have had a lockdown.

 

That’s horrendous

 

Have to agree. They are more reliant on the Russians than we are.

Doesn't make our own domestic policies over the last 30 years look good regarding manufacturing and primary industries. We thought we'd be OK with finance & IT. Pretty hard to feed a population on those in a war.

 

Just as an update - IMF published Growth forecasts for G7 countries today. It's the polar opposite of your statement. The countries with the most extremist policies on Covid have suffered the most - despite seeing no benefit in case numbers. And bear in mind the UK also has the headwind of Brexit - the second stupidest thing that the masses forced upon the country in the last five years. As expected.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/

 

Which countries are you referring to, please?

 

They’re the 2022 predictions, and based on the fact that those economies that shrank most dramatically have bounced a bit more.
It’s the ‘lie’ BJ has been telling for a few months, you ought to do better than swallowing his nonsense

 

Try again. The UK had the highest growth in the G7 in 2021, at 7.4%. That was when the 'bounce' occurred - when the UK moved away from being as extremist as France, Germany et al.

https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?QueryId=111198

It is crystal clear that those countries with the most extreme policies have caused the most heinous damage to their people and that damage will be counted in social deprivation and deaths of the poorest. That's the lasting legacy of lockdown. I truly hope those responsible will be held accountable, but I very much doubt it.

 

Maybe they could stop printing funny money and driving demand that way? QE is the magic golden teet the west has become addicted to since the financial crash of ‘07 and has hidden the unplayable debts it created.

Also a lot of companies are using the opportunity of the war/Brexit/pandemic simply to fleece consumers with higher prices and increase their profits. No doubt we will see this reflected in the earnings of businesses in the markets - keep an eye on those - will the big supermarkets, energy companies and the likes make less money due to the ongoing issues mentioned above or will they make more money? I know which one MY monies on…

 

Yes it looks like utter ****. The impact of lockdowns and Brexit will be felt for years.

 

I'm old enough to remember the HGV drivers and some others celebrating the "Brexit benefit" of large pay rises. Unfortunately, that pushes costs up (and prices) and shipping goods further costs more as fuel increases in price... Wage driven inflation is never good (although this is only an aspect).

This has been on the cards for a while. Inflation is high driven by price gouging by gas extraction companies (suppliers like BG or EDF only make about £20/house profit), with the effects of Ukraine kicking in and the extra bonus of Brexit in the UK while companies are struggling with large numbers of staff absences because of some strange disease the government have decided to ignore and hope it goes away. So productivity will be down across the board this year and going forward until they take measures to reduce spread. If everyone is working 44-46 weeks instead of 48 due to catching Covid and being unable to work (or having to look after kids, etc) then that will have an impact.

In the short term, this will hit many people hard reducing discretionary spend - so expect pubs, restaurants, gyms, hotels, takeaways, taxis and other associated sectors to struggle over the next few years - so more job losses, businesses closing and higher unemployment. More zero hour contracts, more unstable work and more need for food banks - at a time when less people have money to donate to them. Councils services will be hit harder, so unless the gov hands over more money expect services to suffer.

Mortgages will be unaffordable for some/many, so repossessions could rise and house prices might fall - perhaps even a long way. Banks and insurance companies could be exposed to losses. More homelessness, more people resorting to "adult services" and petty crime to put food on the table. More issues with alcohol/drug addiction and abuse within the families too as people at the end of their tether lash out. More suicides.

Any large layoffs anywhere normally affects 10x that number indirectly, so that will also affect some areas worse than others.

I'm not currently expecting any action from the government until house prices crash due to repossessions - and only then when it starts to affect them or their donors in the pocket. The government can take action to reduce the impact on the people. It could lower VAT or fuel duty on fuel, could push ahead with alternative power sources, speak nicer to the EU to drop some of the paperwork issues around entry to France, introduce UBI. I'm sure others have suggestions that could work.

Maybe I'm being unnecessarily pessimistic, but I can't see how our multimillionaire chancellor can even understand how people are struggling, never mind come up with ideas to help other than reduce tax for the rich or austerity.

 

Not sure what you are seeing in terms of Spain

Spain, inflation currently running at 9.8% up from 7.6%

In fact the UK currently lower than Estonia, Czech Republic, Latvia, Poland, Slovakia, Spain, Netherlands, Greece, Hungary, Belgium, Germany.... All in the EU so anybody blaming Brexit is talking rubbish.

New Zealand not far behind us at 5.9% up from 4.9%


Then if you look at food prices alone....

UK up to 5.9% from 5.1%

Germany up to 6.2% from 5.3%
Spain up to 6.8% from 5.6%
Italy up to 5.8% from 4.8%
Poland up to 9.2% from 8.5%
Netherlands up to 6.4% from 5%
New Zealand up to 7.6% from 6.8%


Then flip the coin and look at wage growth

UK up 5.4% from 4.8%
Germany down -1.4% from 0%
Spain up to 5.07% from 5.02%
Italy no change at 0.6%
Poland up to 11.7% from 9.5%
Netherlands up to 2.42% from 2.34%


Not sure for major countries where you are seeing deflation or no impact. On reflection of the stats above the UK is coping better than most.

 

BoE now predicting inflation will break 10% this year

 

Interest rate up to the highest level for 13 years, inflation projected to hit 10% later this year.

My mortgage is a tracker so it will go up. Everything else is going up. Me and the Mrs will cope - we have to, but we will go from being relatively ok to just about scraping by.

The central interest rate will likely increase again, at least to 1.25%, maybe 1.5%, by the year end, gas and electric will be reviewed and likely increased again in October. Again - we will be ok, assuming we are in the jobs we are now - but many others won’t be.

Worrying times. But at least BP and Shell have trousered £12billion profit between them in the first quarter of 2022.

 

It's not just double digit inflation, it's the impact of the cost of borrowing for a heavily indebted population combined with a likely recession and subsequently increase in unemployment.

If people are struggling now, I can't even imagine what it's going to be like for them in 1-2 years time.

 

It'll go above 1.5%, guaranteed. 3 out of 9 voted for it to go to 1.25% today.