OT EVs (I know it is done to death but coming from another angle).....

Hmmm. I get that but, TBF I have never thought of using Cruise control in those situations IMO it is only on long motorway stints at a constant speed where it is useful. Also, 'inadvertently' going over the speed you should not happen. As a driving instructor, I would not have considered anyone who could not maintain a constant given speed and who failed to spot road signs , particularly speed limits in time to enable them to hit the new speed zone at the correct speed 'test ready'. Most speeding is done by driver in the full knowledge that they doing so. There is usually nothing 'inadvertent' about it.
In many ways, many of these 'aids' are more likely to make drivers lazy and complacent (why bother looking for road signs when driving as the limiter will take care of it) notwithstanding the fact I suspect it will only function after you enter the zone (strictly speaking you should be at the correct speed at or before the point where you enter the lower speed limit zone) although I am nit picking there.

The other point is driving to the conditions.

The 'Speed kills' slogan is disingenuous and inaccurate. If true we might as well go back to the Red flag carrier preceding vehicles (as per my earlier 'joke without the laughter' post) It is inappropriate speed that is the killer, Smart speed limits which relay data to the limiters may work but a sign on a pole stuck in the ground does not inform a limiter of fog, snow or ice or any number of hazards that may make the 'normal speed limit' inappropriate. Dumbing down the skill level required to assess that and therefore maintain full control of what, in the wrong hands, is a deadly weapon, by automation, may not have the desired effect that those promoting these devices believe. Again IMO.

 

Again on the subject of EVs Tesla model 3 prices have increased by over $10k in a year due to " rising costs".

Given the above, apart from the few lucky people on here who are advocates of EVs with either above average incomes or provided with company cars the idea of mass EV ownership is further away than ever as the 'affordable' EV is further away than ever. If Tesla cannot bring down prices or even maintain the current one, it is unlikely in the extreme that the big manufacturers will be able to.
Coupled with the fact that an experienced motoring journalist who is enthusiastic EV fan has, in the final analysis, is quoted as saying that unless you do 12k mile per annum, it is not a) financially beneficial to change from an ICE or b) helping the environment.
Even if your ICE is beyond repair, anyone who has a below average annual mileage cannot recoup the additional capital outlay, even with the existing low cost of charging within a realistic timeframe. Given that charge prices will rise to cover the shortfall in lost fuel revenue and the high cost of the huge infrastructure needs should EVs become the dominant form of travel, the timeframe for break even will extend.

Realistically, in spite of all the claims that mass production will make EVs affordable for most people, the idea that every new vehicle in 2030 will be EV is a pipe dream.

 

I ordered a Corsa E back in November last year with a delivery of end of Jan this year. That never happened and after numerous delays it's now en route to the UK with a delivery of around May 1st. When i ordered it, i always lease, the deal i chose came out at £275 per month for a top of the range model. I am glad i ordered when i did as to get the exact same car now on the same timescale/miles etc the price is now £505 per month. So like you say unless they are wantiong people to purchase EV's it's not going to happen fast anytime in the near future

 

Intresting and enlightening... long (25 minutes) but worth a listen if, like me, you were 'wobbling' about going down the EV road..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00162yr#xtor=CS8-1000-[Promo_Box]-[News_Promo]-[News_Promo]-[PS_SOUNDS~N~m00162yr~P_SlicedBread]

Confirmed my suspicions re suitability for the majority of people.

 

Never ever be mass EV car ownership. Closest we plebs will get is a E push bike or catching the E bus.

 

Why? That’s like people in the 1900 saying the car won’t catch on….

 

E bah gum

 

Don't all new technological innovations start off expensive and inefficient? I don't know why you have such a bee in your bonnet about electric vehicles.

 

Huh? Are you talking about me? I might be getting old but I don't remember 'dissing' Smartphones. Extremely useful and have one. That said the sight of 4 kids sat at a table in a restaurant all texting and not communicating with each other is not really putting them to the best use. I see the future for many is and epidemic of RSI of their thumbs a few years down the line

 

You say that but in my experience the kids and younger lot wil put their phones down during meals etc whilst the older generations seem to use them at inappropriate times. Both my parents will suddenly start looking at Facebook when a movie is on for example, my older sister and my mum can have guests round but sit looking at their phones for hours on end

 

I think it's worse than simply that the manufacturers can't produce them as cheaply as before. I genuinely think that because demand is higher and will keep getting higher due to government enforced deadlines to buy them, that they are deliberately putting costs up simply because they can.

 

My old man used ( in the 1950’s) to teach Police fast driving courses and also taught them how to handle out of control vehicles on the skid pan... his view was that speed kills... because driving fast is easy, you just put your foot down, it's the stopping that is hard. When I was a learner he was fairly easy on me, after I'd passed he was very tough, when I drove us to places, I'd have to provide a running commentary of everything happening on the road and every possibility that could happen from what could be seen. I would say without the training for both it would make it difficult to make the right decisions to drive safely if you're driving faster than other road users might be, or would expect.

 

I look forward to this post being bumped in April 2042

 

What a load of **** that podcast is. Is that what passes for investigative journalism these days?

So, what he is testing is whether the geezer should ditch his currently working 10 year old car and buy an EV. And his outcome is that he will need to drive it for 40 YEARS to make a saving!! WTF??

So, no comparison then on the DIFFERENCE in NET cost of ownership (factoring in the cost vs resale value of buying an EV vs buying another ICE). His comparison is buying an EV vs walking and also assuming that if he buys an EV, its resale value will be zero. And using that worthless set of criteria to put your average Joe off switching to an EV by concluding it takes 40 years to make sense. And people lap up this crap. He then touches on the points about the fact that if he sells it that will need to be factored in but puts no numbers on that. So people go away and start quoting 40 years down the pub.

Come back when someone has done a proper analysis. One that for example, recognises that the EV version of the Corsa is 8k more expensive than the ICE version, but after 5 years would be likely to be still worth 4k more than the ICE version at resale. Most people dont keep their car for 10 years. So would have cost an extra 4k over the time they owned it. In that 5 years they do 40k miles (less than UK average (saving them 4k in fuel (using his figures) but much more if they do a modicum of planning and get a dual rate fuel tariff, plus road tax savings, servicing savings etc, covering the whole of the difference, whilst at the same time enjoying instant torque and silent driving. Plus not polluting the local environment.

No-one is saying that everybody should run out tomorrow and scrap their ICE car. That would be ludicrous. But, bit by bit, when ICE cars reach the end of their life, and fall off the ownership cliff, if at the other end, someone else has put a new EV into the ownership pool instead of a new ICE, that is better for the planet. There is an initial production hit on carbon emissions but every study shows that it is paid off in around 30-40k miles and that is with the grid now. It's getting cleaner every year. Even your shoddy podcast journalist came up with 37k miles as the number every car will do more than that over its lifetime. So every EV is ultimately cleaner over its lifetime than an ICE. We only have one planet.

The numbers might not work for you. Fine. They will work for someone else. It might work for you next time. But stop with the fake journalism such as this.

 

16% of new cars each month now are EV. Tekky's podcast fella pointed out that more EVs were sold last year than the previous 5 years combined. That sounds very much to me like the bottom of a very steep adoption S curve. There is a very real chance that more than half of new cars sold will be EV within 3 years.

The one thing I can guarantee you is that there will be mass ownership of EVs. It's happening. Now.

With any new technology, these things start slowly, and are expensive. Then they become more popular and costs start to come down. They it takes off and there is no going back.

When mobile phones cost 4 thousand pounds in the late 80s and needed a rucksack to carry them around, who would have thought that 30 years later every secondary school pupil would have one and that you could get them on a monthly contract for 15 quid a month?

Apply that same adoption curve to EVs. That is what is happening. Only 15 years ago there was one option if you wanted an EV and it cost well over 100,000 pounds. In only 15 years, we are now at the point where one in 6 cars sold is EV and they cost a few grand more than a new ICE. In another 8 years, you cant buy a new ICE but you can keep your existing one as long as you want. But people will want EVs by then not ICE because they are better cars. In 25 years, you'll struggle to see an ICE on the road and petrol stations will be few and far between.

 

Don't disagree regarding technology advances and lowering costs... there are plenty of examples out there better than mobile phones... Flat screen TVs are one,,,, I recall the early plasma screen when introduced was only 640x480 resolution and cost thousands of pounds!

In my own experience Professional keyboards synths ( also PA and lighting ) are a fraction of the cost of when the analogue synths stopped being lab equipment and became a tool for keyboard players. My first two keyboards ... a Logan String machine and a Wurlitzer EP200 each cost more than 3-4 months average salary in the early 70s- I was always skint and in debt trying to 'keep up' in the days when you needed a bank of keyboards, many monophonic to create multiple sound and whilst ARP and Moogs had a distinctive sound they only really had that one sound.

People like Rick Wakeman (Yes), Keith Emerson (ELP) etc were always surrounded by banks of keyboards. As a pianist just before sampled instruments became popular I bought (in the early 80s) a Yamaha CP80 which was eye.wateringly expensive at nearly £3k and although it transported as two parts was incredibly heavy and needed regular tuning as it was basically a Grand piano without a sound board.

I now use a CP88 Yamaha stage piano which gives me all the sounds I need (with multiple effects) combined with a RC5 looper since I won' t use backing tracks or sequencers. (keep music live!)
Even in the 80s PA and lighting was expensive, power hungry and bulky. As a band back then we toured using a 508D LWB or Transit LWB just to get the gear and band in.

I now only play for fun performing in a duo and my 3 Kw PA powered speakers, mixer, and LED lights plus Instruments etc . all fit into my Skoda Yeti. Wireless inner ear monitoring replaces bulky stage monitor speakers and LED colour changing lights run off 13A and replace banks of PAR 64 cans that used 1KW each... all at a fraction the weight and what the old gear cost.

So yes, I can see how tech improves, whilst prices fall especially for electronics which all the above examples mainly comprise. Nvertheless, a) I am fortunate to be able to afford to replace old with new and b) considering cars are the 2nd most expensive purchase most people make in their lives, I fully understand that advocates, like yourself and Gally who can afford the latest and greatest are fully bought into it. My concern is that for many, there are still many issue to overcome and too many assumptions they will be resolved in teh timeframe. Price, Availability, infrastructure, range, future Govts policies on electricity charging taxation, cost effective effcieint recycling of batteries, the majority's ability to buy even 2nd hand EVs (especially as you have argued that the resale value will be high) .
I am NOT disputing ICE will eventually be obsolete, but I argue the timeframe for the change is realistic given the above.

I am not the Luddite that you appear to imply I am having been involved in tech for most of my life (music, and IT/ Telecoms) but I have less faith in technology and science that you appear to have that it can provide all the answers to everything.

In terms of the article I though that experts in the field were quoted including a a motoring journalist who is an avid proponent of EVs so not sure why you consider it to be total nonsense. For lots of people it makes sense to change but for people like myself who do less than 6K per year (I have a 10 year old diesel with less than 50K on the clock) it makes no sense to scrap it.