Back over in Ukraine...

Crimea would have voted to join Russia in a free vote anyway, so it would surely make sense for the allies to use it as a bargaining chip in any peace talks. Losing it again would be such a humiliation for Putin that he can't allow it to happen under any circumstances.

As for the other regions, that's much less clear cut. I think that the industrial east of the Donbas would be likely to opt for joining Russia, but I have my doubts about the west. Russian speaking doesn't mean pro-Russian, as can clearly be seen in Kharkiv and Odessa. The majority of Ukraine speaks Russian as a first language.

 

It's usually 95%. The Russians are obviously becoming far more popular though.

 

Since you quite often seem to come up with surprises like this, I think you should write your own memoir type book!

 

Oh dear. Explosions at both Nord Stream pipelines as gas leaks into sea. Nowt to do with the Russians. Obviously.

 

Do you know why the figures vary from each area?
Is it just as simple as soldiers from a specific area are in a certain regiment which then depends on where they were/are based?
Or is it more a case of certain part s of Russia are seen as more disposable?

 

Sorry mate "..., if this is repeated in other places Putin's mobilisation will be wrecked."
You are clearly talking B*llox. As my wife pointed out, given the traffic jams, booked solid flights etc. out of Russia, the 'mobilisation' is going very well (except not in the direction Putin planned)

 

Yes, I don't see a situation where those regions can remain wholly in Ukraine or Russia, some sort of partition seems inevitable.

 

Putin will implode and it'll be his own Generals that brings him down,

 

It's been clear from day one that Putin has tried to distance Moscow and St Petersburg from the combat zone, although Putin genuinely thought it would be over in a few days...I think they intended to use the Chechens to do much of the dirty work, but they lost very heavily in the assault on Hostomel airport in the first few days, after that the Chechens were doing a lot of media stuff, Ukraine have nicknamed them the Tik Tok warriors, but little if any fighting, following that the Kremlin began offering big money to the remoter areas for volunteers.

 

We have our views on this. No one knows how it will pan out but I'd take my info from people know know & @Merde Tete is one of those. Nothing in any country or society is that simple. Ukraine is a former Soviet state & whilst I fully support our position vs Russia politically, there is a lot more complexities on the ground no doubt. Putin is a monster. The USA, Saudi and most western nations have blood on their hands in so many countries.

 

PS I'd add that the German Shepherd had to be renamed the Alsatian, as they were getting a hard time over the war themselves! FFS.

 

His problem is that he may not be able to prevent it...even by nuclear sabre rattling, reading various analysts they believe that Russia has failed to maintain not only the delivery systems but the warheads, the war so far has also proved that they don't have competent air defence to protect themselves. He's now sacked several senior military men and quite a number of previously friendly Oligarchs have met untimely ends in the last few weeks, it's highly possible Putin might not be in place to make the decision.

 

Women in Yakutsk harrassing a recruitment team ( allegedly)

 

You're right. If or as now seems inevitable, when Putin falls, there's likely to be an almighty power struggle behind the scenes if he's usurped from within. It's my genuine belief that one of the moderate pragmatists will emerge, go for damage limitation, and try to establish peace and restore relations with the rest of the world as soon as possible. This will happen, simply because the alternative - one of the ultra-hawks taking charge - will lead to the certain destruction of Russia and probably the rest of Europe. It simply cannot be allowed to happen, and the pragmatists know this. However, the ultra-hawks are likely to fight dirty, and get into bed with the far-right if necessary.

Any new government led by or containing current Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin will be extremely good news for Russia and by extension for the rest of us. Conversely, if any of Nikolai Patrushev, Alexander Bortnikov or Vyacheslav Volodin are involved, I'd recommend dusting off that gas mask and heading for the nearest hole in the ground.

 

I'm glad you value my contributions, though I must add for some balance, that I am only able to judge with great accuracy the attitudes of young and middle-aged urban professionals, as these are the people I work and socialise with. I have been trying to build up a picture as to what's going on outside this demographic, but a certain amount of educated guesswork is always involved. Likewise with the views of people in the disputed territories, where things are far from simple. Through family members in the Donbas, I can however say with great certainty that before the first war in 2014, people's position there towards central government in Kiev was pretty much how most of us in South Yorkshire view the Tory party. No love lost whatsoever, and very little interest in aligning themselves with the EU. However, I have absolutely no doubt that taking up arms against Kiev crossed the mind of practically nobody until Putin started flooding the area with arms and proxies. It's one of the most cynical cases of opportunism I've ever seen.

 

For those of you wondering why there hasn't been mass protest in Russia yet, this article is essential reading.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/09/27/why-don-t-russians-march-on-moscow

 

On that subject I was in south western Poland with my Polish partner recently - in Wrocław and Opole - and she made a point of listening to people passing by in the streets, in shops and restaurants and on the trains and buses. Every day she was turning to me and saying “they’re Ukrainian, he’s Ukrainian and so is she”. We shared a railway carriage one day with four others, two of which were Ukrainian - a female teacher and an older male farmer. I heard later that both had sad stories to tell and neither expected to go home again.

I hadn’t realised the scale of the migration but it’s obviously significant and these are just two locations in Poland. If that’s the case in other towns and cities in that country, as well as others, you wonder if anyone will be left in their homeland. Apart from the invaders that is.

 

Literally 90% of my male friends and acquaintances in Russia have left this week if they hadn't before. Some can work remotely, others can't. Some have taken their spouses and kids, others weren't able to, thus splitting up their families. Nobody knows when they'll be back, or what they'll come back to. It's horrendous. Even more so for the poor Ukrainians who've been displaced or had their families split up. It's an utter ****-show for all concerned.

My brother in law is now in Kazakhstan. So relieved.

 

Seems like the migration convoys heading west will soon be half Russian/half Ukrainian. Surely the despotic Putin can’t survive much longer?