Talking of FA Cup Draws

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by fired, Nov 7, 2022.

Page 1 of 2
  1. fir

    fired Administrator Staff Member Admin

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2007
    Messages:
    16,524
    Likes Received:
    12,401
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Is anyone good at maths/ probabilities?

    What’s the probability of a third round all Premier League tie e.g. Man City v Arsenal coming out?

    Amazing how many times it happens - the tie for the cameras.
     
    fired, Nov 7, 2022
    #1
  2. Hooky feller

    Hooky feller Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2016
    Messages:
    17,651
    Likes Received:
    20,112
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Retired, full time grandad.
    Location:
    Mapp.
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    63/1.
    64 clubs in at the 3rd round.
     
    Hooky feller, Nov 7, 2022
    #2
  3. David Gibson

    David Gibson Member

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2018
    Messages:
    76
    Likes Received:
    95
    Trophy Points:
    18
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Isle of Man
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Probability = the number of favourable out comes ÷ the total number of outcomes ie the number of premier teams you would like to play against ÷ the total number of teams in the draw. The answer should be a small fraction. Hope that helps.
     
    David Gibson, Nov 7, 2022
    #3
    Hooky feller likes this.
  4. Orared

    Orared Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2005
    Messages:
    1,004
    Likes Received:
    869
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Accountant, now retired
    Location:
    Elsecar
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Shouldn't that be 64/20 (20 premier league out of a total of 64) x 63/19 for any all premier league fixture ? very roughly about 10/1 ?
     
    Orared, Nov 7, 2022
    #4
    Tyke The Tree-Frog, S74 Red, nezbfc and 2 others like this.
  5. Hooky feller

    Hooky feller Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2016
    Messages:
    17,651
    Likes Received:
    20,112
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Retired, full time grandad.
    Location:
    Mapp.
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Cheers
    Misunderstood the question. I'd got it in my head not 2 premier sides together. But one specific premier side v another premier side.
    Get your 63/19. But surely that's roughly 3.3/1.
     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2022
    Hooky feller, Nov 7, 2022
    #5
  6. Archey

    Archey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2008
    Messages:
    26,067
    Likes Received:
    21,638
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    A big massive boat
    Style:
    Barnsley
    Chance of barnsley being drawn away at Arsenal in the cup - >1%

    Chance of Barnsley being drawn away at Southend in the cup and it being moved to a Friday night - 75%
     
    Archey, Nov 7, 2022
    #6
    Journo Tyke, Tyke The Tree-Frog, Mr C and 4 others like this.
  7. Hooky feller

    Hooky feller Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2016
    Messages:
    17,651
    Likes Received:
    20,112
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Retired, full time grandad.
    Location:
    Mapp.
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    More than likely an overnighter it is then. :)
     
    Hooky feller, Nov 7, 2022
    #7
    Archey likes this.
  8. Orared

    Orared Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2005
    Messages:
    1,004
    Likes Received:
    869
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Accountant, now retired
    Location:
    Elsecar
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Think it should be :-
    A) Odds on a premier league club being drawn first - 64/20 or 3.2 to 1
    B) Odds on a premier League club being drawn next - 63/19 or 3.3 to 1
    Therefore odds on A and B being correct are 3.2 x 3.3 to 1, or 10.56/1 (I think)
    These odds alter after each ball is selected in he fraw
     
    Orared, Nov 7, 2022
    #8
    wakeyred likes this.
  9. Archey

    Archey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2008
    Messages:
    26,067
    Likes Received:
    21,638
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    A big massive boat
    Style:
    Barnsley
    Southend are out already, and yet I still reckon we've more chance of drawing them than Arsenal away in the 3rd round ;)
     
    Archey, Nov 7, 2022
    #9
    Hooky feller likes this.
  10. Archey

    Archey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2008
    Messages:
    26,067
    Likes Received:
    21,638
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    A big massive boat
    Style:
    Barnsley
    Leeds always seem to pox a big team away in the cup. I'm going to check it, but I reckon they've been to one of the big 5 (City, Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool) at least 5 times in the last 20 years in the FA Cup alone.

    Edit: in the last 20 seasons, they've been to Arsenal 3 times, Man Utd and Man City once. They've also been to Tottenham (who I didn't originally include), and also faced Arsenal at home.
     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2022
    Archey, Nov 7, 2022
    #10
  11. Did

    Didcot Red Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2012
    Messages:
    3,426
    Likes Received:
    3,286
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    Didcot
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    I saw us lose 2-0 away at Highbury in the mid eighties in the FA cup. We also played them at Oakwell in the League Cup in the 1990s. We lost this one as well.

    I will never forgive the Football League for rigging their promotion to Division 1 after WW1. They have never suffered relegation. That should have been us!
     
    Didcot Red, Nov 7, 2022
    #11
  12. ley

    leythtyke Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2019
    Messages:
    8,194
    Likes Received:
    12,127
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Is it even possible to figure out the overall probability? I.e. if the first tie is not an all PL fixture, then the probability of the subsequent tie depends on whether one PL team has been drawn already or not. If the last two teams in the draw are both in the PL, then the probability is 1 or 100%.
     
    leythtyke, Nov 7, 2022
    #12
  13. Hooky feller

    Hooky feller Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2016
    Messages:
    17,651
    Likes Received:
    20,112
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Retired, full time grandad.
    Location:
    Mapp.
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Yup finished 5th
    Us 3rd
    Wolves 4th
    The club they replaced, Spurs. the only one relegated. With 3 promoted.
    Wonder if anything fishy went on. :( B'stds.
     
    Hooky feller, Nov 7, 2022
    #13
    Didcot Red likes this.
  14. ade

    ade Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2007
    Messages:
    1,538
    Likes Received:
    1,227
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    IT manager
    Location:
    Hilton, Derby
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Not quite true, they have never been relegated since then. They were relegated before that time - 1913 I think.
     
    ade, Nov 7, 2022
    #14
    Didcot Red likes this.
  15. man

    mansfield_red Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2011
    Messages:
    10,487
    Likes Received:
    17,430
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    I can't be arsed to work this out, but it will be overwhelmingly likely that there will be an all Premier league tie, 90%+ I reckon.
     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2022
    mansfield_red, Nov 7, 2022
    #15
  16. Did

    Didcot Red Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2012
    Messages:
    3,426
    Likes Received:
    3,286
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    Didcot
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    You are quite correct. I never realised they had been relegated.
     
    Didcot Red, Nov 7, 2022
    #16
    ade likes this.
  17. nezbfc

    nezbfc Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2005
    Messages:
    10,990
    Likes Received:
    6,664
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    If you were to concentrate on specifically arsenal v Man city....

    It's 64/1 for either of them being drawn out
    AND (which is multiplied by)
    63/1 being the next.

    64 x 63 is a lot....

    Which should equate to about 4000/1

    But your right for prem v prem
     
    nezbfc, Nov 7, 2022
    #17
  18. fir

    fired Administrator Staff Member Admin

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2007
    Messages:
    16,524
    Likes Received:
    12,401
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Every year I can remember there are several all Prem ties, and miraculously it always seems to be one for the cameras…. Liverpool v Man U, or whoever the top 2 are at the time. It’s almost as if some other power is at play. ;-)
     
    fired, Nov 7, 2022
    #18
  19. Gimson&theBarnsleys

    Gimson&theBarnsleys Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2005
    Messages:
    7,467
    Likes Received:
    6,113
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Fiddling at the FA, how ver
    Fiddling at the FA, how very dare you.;)
     
    Gimson&theBarnsleys, Nov 7, 2022
    #19
  20. ade

    ade Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2007
    Messages:
    1,538
    Likes Received:
    1,227
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    IT manager
    Location:
    Hilton, Derby
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Balls are warmed appropriately
    hot balls anyone?
     
    ade, Nov 7, 2022
    #20
Page 1 of 2

Share This Page