Talking of FA Cup Draws

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by fired, Nov 7, 2022.

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  1. fir

    fired Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    Is anyone good at maths/ probabilities?

    What’s the probability of a third round all Premier League tie e.g. Man City v Arsenal coming out?

    Amazing how many times it happens - the tie for the cameras.
     
    fired, Nov 7, 2022
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  2. Hooky feller

    Hooky feller Well-Known Member

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    63/1.
    64 clubs in at the 3rd round.
     
    Hooky feller, Nov 7, 2022
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  3. David Gibson

    David Gibson Member

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    Probability = the number of favourable out comes ÷ the total number of outcomes ie the number of premier teams you would like to play against ÷ the total number of teams in the draw. The answer should be a small fraction. Hope that helps.
     
    David Gibson, Nov 7, 2022
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  4. Orared

    Orared Well-Known Member

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    Shouldn't that be 64/20 (20 premier league out of a total of 64) x 63/19 for any all premier league fixture ? very roughly about 10/1 ?
     
    Orared, Nov 7, 2022
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  5. Hooky feller

    Hooky feller Well-Known Member

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    Cheers
    Misunderstood the question. I'd got it in my head not 2 premier sides together. But one specific premier side v another premier side.
    Get your 63/19. But surely that's roughly 3.3/1.
     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2022
    Hooky feller, Nov 7, 2022
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  6. Archey

    Archey Well-Known Member

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    Chance of barnsley being drawn away at Arsenal in the cup - >1%

    Chance of Barnsley being drawn away at Southend in the cup and it being moved to a Friday night - 75%
     
    Archey, Nov 7, 2022
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  7. Hooky feller

    Hooky feller Well-Known Member

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    More than likely an overnighter it is then. :)
     
    Hooky feller, Nov 7, 2022
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  8. Orared

    Orared Well-Known Member

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    Think it should be :-
    A) Odds on a premier league club being drawn first - 64/20 or 3.2 to 1
    B) Odds on a premier League club being drawn next - 63/19 or 3.3 to 1
    Therefore odds on A and B being correct are 3.2 x 3.3 to 1, or 10.56/1 (I think)
    These odds alter after each ball is selected in he fraw
     
    Orared, Nov 7, 2022
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  9. Archey

    Archey Well-Known Member

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    Southend are out already, and yet I still reckon we've more chance of drawing them than Arsenal away in the 3rd round ;)
     
    Archey, Nov 7, 2022
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  10. Archey

    Archey Well-Known Member

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    Leeds always seem to pox a big team away in the cup. I'm going to check it, but I reckon they've been to one of the big 5 (City, Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool) at least 5 times in the last 20 years in the FA Cup alone.

    Edit: in the last 20 seasons, they've been to Arsenal 3 times, Man Utd and Man City once. They've also been to Tottenham (who I didn't originally include), and also faced Arsenal at home.
     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2022
    Archey, Nov 7, 2022
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  11. Did

    Didcot Red Well-Known Member

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    I saw us lose 2-0 away at Highbury in the mid eighties in the FA cup. We also played them at Oakwell in the League Cup in the 1990s. We lost this one as well.

    I will never forgive the Football League for rigging their promotion to Division 1 after WW1. They have never suffered relegation. That should have been us!
     
    Didcot Red, Nov 7, 2022
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  12. ley

    leythtyke Well-Known Member

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    Is it even possible to figure out the overall probability? I.e. if the first tie is not an all PL fixture, then the probability of the subsequent tie depends on whether one PL team has been drawn already or not. If the last two teams in the draw are both in the PL, then the probability is 1 or 100%.
     
    leythtyke, Nov 7, 2022
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  13. Hooky feller

    Hooky feller Well-Known Member

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    Yup finished 5th
    Us 3rd
    Wolves 4th
    The club they replaced, Spurs. the only one relegated. With 3 promoted.
    Wonder if anything fishy went on. :( B'stds.
     
    Hooky feller, Nov 7, 2022
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  14. ade

    ade Well-Known Member

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    Not quite true, they have never been relegated since then. They were relegated before that time - 1913 I think.
     
    ade, Nov 7, 2022
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  15. man

    mansfield_red Well-Known Member

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    I can't be arsed to work this out, but it will be overwhelmingly likely that there will be an all Premier league tie, 90%+ I reckon.
     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2022
    mansfield_red, Nov 7, 2022
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  16. Did

    Didcot Red Well-Known Member

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    You are quite correct. I never realised they had been relegated.
     
    Didcot Red, Nov 7, 2022
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  17. nezbfc

    nezbfc Well-Known Member

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    If you were to concentrate on specifically arsenal v Man city....

    It's 64/1 for either of them being drawn out
    AND (which is multiplied by)
    63/1 being the next.

    64 x 63 is a lot....

    Which should equate to about 4000/1

    But your right for prem v prem
     
    nezbfc, Nov 7, 2022
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  18. fir

    fired Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    Every year I can remember there are several all Prem ties, and miraculously it always seems to be one for the cameras…. Liverpool v Man U, or whoever the top 2 are at the time. It’s almost as if some other power is at play. ;-)
     
    fired, Nov 7, 2022
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  19. Gimson&theBarnsleys

    Gimson&theBarnsleys Well-Known Member

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    Fiddling at the FA, how ver
    Fiddling at the FA, how very dare you.;)
     
    Gimson&theBarnsleys, Nov 7, 2022
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  20. ade

    ade Well-Known Member

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    Balls are warmed appropriately
    hot balls anyone?
     
    ade, Nov 7, 2022
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