Does it "even itself out"?

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by Tyketical Masterstroke, Feb 26, 2023.

  1. Tyk

    Tyketical Masterstroke Well-Known Member

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    Got loads of work to do and trying to avoid it so decided to test the hypothesis that "it evens itself out" with regard to penalty decisions. TLDR - no, it absolutely doesn't.

    Here's the penalties awarded and conceded for the last few seasons. Apologies if the columns don't look right:

    Season: Div: Position: Pens for: Pens against: Difference
    22/23 D1 5 0 4 -4
    21/22 CH 24 2 6 -4
    20/21 CH 5 8 3 5
    19/20 CH 21 2 4 -2
    18/19 D1 2 3 6 -3
    17/18 CH 22 3 5 -2
    16/17 CH 14 2 11 -9
    TOTAL 20 39 -19

    Charitable Conclusion: There appears to be some sort of systemic bias at play in recent years, whether conscious or unconscious. Even in years when we are wiping the floor with most teams and/or scoring pots of goals, for whatever reason we are not getting penalty decisions, with the singular exception of 20/21. If you look at the normal distribution it is the penalties awarded where we are miles outside the normal distribution - the conceded number is roughly where you would expect over the period when you consider we've been either at the very top or very bottom of a division in most of the last few seasons.
     
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2023
    Tyketical Masterstroke, Feb 26, 2023
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  2. Marc

    Marc Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    interesting. don't we need to look at more data though? comparison against other teams, minutes in penalty box, number of appeals etc. not sure how conclusive it is, just looking at our penalties given/conceded, in isolation. I'd like to see more data though, definitely
     
    Marc, Feb 26, 2023
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  3. Merde Tete

    Merde Tete Well-Known Member

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    Merde Tete, Feb 26, 2023
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  4. Marc

    Marc Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    Marc, Feb 26, 2023
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  5. Hooky feller

    Hooky feller Well-Known Member

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    Nice work.
    Given the way we played under Val. I'm not surprised that goes against the trend.
    Only + figure in that lot.
     
    Hooky feller, Feb 26, 2023
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  6. Old Goat

    Old Goat Well-Known Member

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    20/21 is interesting. That was Big Val's covid season, where we mostly played football in the final third and battered teams relentlessly with our non-stop and interchangeable forward line.

    Maybe only "supreme megamen" are awarded penalties on a regular basis?
     
    Old Goat, Feb 26, 2023
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