FiveThirtyEight Predictions

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by Deafening Silence, Mar 1, 2023.

  1. Deafening Silence

    Deafening Silence Well-Known Member

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    Didn’t bother looking at this last season as we were dead and buried, but it was pretty accurate in Val’s season.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/league-one/

    According to this we’ve got a 38% chance of being promoted this season and are most likely to finish 3rd, however we have a 21% chance of automatic promotion.

    What do you reckon?
     
    Deafening Silence, Mar 1, 2023
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  2. Andy Mac

    Andy Mac Well-Known Member

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    That 78.65% of all stats are made up on the spot
     
    Andy Mac, Mar 1, 2023
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  3. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    I'll tell you what I reckon.

    I said on Monday that Barnsley had a much better chance of a top two finish than is implied by odds of 8/1.

    Very Interesting Price | The Barnsley FC BBS Fans Forum

    Those odds represent around an 11% chance. The website quoted above give us a 21% chance, implying that the odds should be 4/1 or shorter. Only Betvictor still have us at 8's. All the other firms are shorter and Paddy and 888.Sport have us only 5's. I repeat what I said on Monday: 8/1 (with BetVictor) is a must bet.
     
    orsenkaht, Mar 1, 2023
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  4. Fon

    Fonzie Well-Known Member

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    22% of people know that.
     
    Fonzie, Mar 1, 2023
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  5. Old Goat

    Old Goat Well-Known Member

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    37% of people don't understand percentages. I find that staggering. It's over half of us!
     
    Old Goat, Mar 1, 2023
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  6. SFOTyke

    SFOTyke Well-Known Member

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    More like 123%
     
    SFOTyke, Mar 1, 2023
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  7. Farnham_Red

    Farnham_Red Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    I had a brilliant Maths teacher at Wombwell High, Mr True ( Barnsley fan as well)

    I actually found maths easy and something I was good at with him teaching - at least up to O level standard.

    We had a student teach a few lessons and she explained percentages - I found them really difficult as did most of the class
    when at the end of the year Mr True asked was there anything we wanted around 150% of us said percentages

    After he had explained them I thought - ah they are not so hard after all as did around 91% of the class
     
    Farnham_Red, Mar 1, 2023
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  8. Deafening Silence

    Deafening Silence Well-Known Member

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    The thing to remember with percentages is that they’re reversible. 20% of 25 is the same as 25% if 20. It’s often easier to work out one rather than the other.
     
    Deafening Silence, Mar 1, 2023
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  9. Lan

    Lancesbro Well-Known Member

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    Out of interest it gives Man U a 3 % chance of winning the league. On a purely analytical level I would have put their chances around the 10% mark.
    It also says that statistically we are still not safe yet.
     
    Lancesbro, Mar 1, 2023
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  10. Skryptic

    Skryptic Well-Known Member

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    Skryptic, Mar 2, 2023
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  11. Fea

    Fearless Tyke Well-Known Member

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    Don’t believe you - it just doesn’t add up!
     
    Fearless Tyke, Mar 2, 2023
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  12. Andy Mac

    Andy Mac Well-Known Member

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    Same with Binary. Only 10 of us at work understand it. Me and Phil.
     
    Andy Mac, Mar 2, 2023
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  13. Sco

    Scoff Well-Known Member

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    Maths is a lot more fun when you get rid of the numbers.
     
    Scoff, Mar 2, 2023
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  14. Farnham_Red

    Farnham_Red Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    There are 100 people working on the project I am currently working on who understand binary the project manager and 11 engineers
     
    Farnham_Red, Mar 2, 2023
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  15. Farnham_Red

    Farnham_Red Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    Percentages again Bozo the clown cant understand them
     
    Farnham_Red, Mar 2, 2023
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  16. Gimson&theBarnsleys

    Gimson&theBarnsleys Well-Known Member

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    We had Billingham, he was rubbish. If it wasn’t for him I’d probably be good at matha..., mather…, mathum..., ...sums.
     
    Gimson&theBarnsleys, Mar 2, 2023
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