8 wins from last 12 games gets us to 90 points which had often been enough for automatic. If we can maintain current form we’re on course for maybe 96 points. Next three games are tough and I’d take three draws. Run in doesn’t look too difficult.
I think 80 points minimum for play off and 90 for automatic. But there's 4 teams going for automatic so could be nearly a ton up for automatic.
I was think about this earlier 80 should be enough for the play offs, that’s 14 points from the remaining 36( think it’s 12 games left) easily achievable with current form. I thought we’d do well to finish top 10 so massively over achieving
Ipswich have just won 5 in a row scoring 14 and keeping 5 clean sheets. Whilst we do have 2 games in hand over them, we need to win those just to go behind them in goal difference. Of course, we've still to play them, but for it to help, we'll need to beat them. It's such a tough ask. And that's just to catch the team currently in 3rd.
Plymouth's run-in is extremely soft. Even with their patchy away form, Exeter and possibly Shrewsbury are the only really tricky looking fixtures they have left. Maybe one surprise draw at home to Lincoln, as Lincoln draw with everyone. I'd go with Plymouth realistically winning 6, drawing 3 and losing 1 of their final 10 fixtures, which will put them on 95. That would leave us needing 10 wins from 12, or 9 plus two draws would probably be enough as our goal difference is better. Not impossible but very tough. Of course, Plymouth could completely blow up again. Strange things happen at the business end of the season.
Also, I suppose, depends on injuries, but that's applied to all clubs. For instance if Connell got injured for rest of the season, I'd put our chance of getting into the autos at 0%, I think he's far too integral to us. Or an early red card in one of their games, anything can happen, as we know via the amount of penalties we haven't had but should have compared the the ones we've conceded... I'm about 60% confident
I think Plymouth will bottle it and it will be us or Ipswich, with the game against them deciding it.
I'd agree with you about Connell. With the Ipswich game being a must-win, it's absolutely vital that we don't release him for international duty, even if we have to use slightly nefarious means if needs be.
Wednesday will win the league, Plymouth, runner's up, Ipswich 3rd, Barnsley a very impressive 4th, Bolton 5th an Derby in 6th, Ipswich will play Derby an the very impressive Barnsley will take on Bolton, The final will be Ipswich or Derby against the RED Arrrrrry. I strongly recommend you book an Hotel for the Weekend 27th and 29th May, c u all there, Hopefully.
I’ve seen a couple of Ipswich fans saying they think the game will be off as they’re expecting 4 or 5 call ups.
Agree with you about the top six apart from I think Derby will be 5th with Bolton 6th. Us v Derby and Bolton v Ipswich in the play offs..
We've got a tough game tomorrow night. Just keep winning and see what happens. I fail to see point in second guessing a Play-Off finish as in the Play-Offs it's a one off game (over two legs) and a Final. On the subject of the Play-Offs. Now they've ditched the away goals rule. I'd rather it be two one off Semi Finals at a neutral venue like Old Trafford. Clubs would make more money then and might off set the pain felt of missing out on promotion.
Too late, Stephen has already boarded his train to Exeter and is looking forward to checking in at his nice little B&B before sinking a few pints of Proper Job.
Last 20 years only one team has got 90 points and not made automatic, Sheff Utd 2011/12. On current form this year could see 90 points not getting automatic. We made it in 18/19 with 92