Cheltenham 23 Mega Thread

Is there a tips thread yet?

The wise/lucky/optimistic ones please feel free to furnish me with your knowledge and daily tips here

 

Following to pick up all the tips!

 

Completely free £5 bet on any race tomorrow with Paddy Power. No deposit required. Winnings paid in cash.

 

SkyBet doing first race money back if your horse loses. Maximum £5.

 

They’ve gave me a measly 2£ max

 

Well, with the caveat that my tipping is currently in terrible form, here are my thoughts.

1.30 The majority of pundits have written off FACILE VEGA after he flopped at the Dublin Festival in February. He raced too freely that day and returned slightly lame. Mullins would not be running him here if he did not think the horse was A1. Furthermore, stable jockey Paul Townend has picked Facile Vega from Mullins' four entries. If he had not run at Leopardstown he would likely be odds on here and I'm happy to bet on a return to his best (which includes a win over this course in last year's Champion Bumper) at 11/4 (Hills, Bet365 go 5/2).
5.30 GGAILLARD DU MESNIL must win this if he stands up. Evens with Hills, he is an odds-on chance. Not an exciting price, but Evens represents value compared to his chance here.

Of the other races, Constitution Hill should win the Champion Hurdle (3.30) and prove himself the greatest hurdler to have raced. The hurdling equivalent of Arkle. In the Arkle itself (2.10) I'd marginally be preferring Jonbon to El Fabiolo, but not with sufficient confidence to have a bet. The Ultima (2.50) is extremely competitive. The sponsor owns Threeunderthrufive, who is 20/1 with Paddy

 

It doesn't bode well if you are in terrible form because that pretty much looks like my betting slip for tomorrow. I like Monbeg Genius in the 2.50.

 

Yes, expect horses to die. They could bet on that.?

 

£20 for me. I am on the Epic Odds that Hills have of Constitution Hill to win tomorrow at evens. That will be the festival banker for most people. Excellent creature.

 

Creosote, good over fences.
Scabbyfanny, never been licked.

 

Don’t waste your money it’s fixed

 

Marine nationale

 

Tough day today.

1.30 - don't like any of the top 3 in the market. Think it's a weak race without an outstanding candidate. Tahmuras and Rare Edition tentative choices.

2.05 - Flip a coin between the top two. Both outstanding prospects. Dysart Dynamo will set off like a greyhound and fade.

2.50 - love this race. Into Overdrive outstanding claims. Horses that have run well in this race tend to repeat and do so again (Corach Rambler and Oscar Elite). Top Ville Ben could go well at a price.

3.30 - sit back and watch

4.10 - the up and comers usually beat the older mares on the downturn. Brandy Love or Love Envoi. Against Honeysuckle and Epatante.

4.50 - pin job time. All depends which horse has a stone in hand. Samuel Spade shouldn't be 20/1 and is worth a small each way.

5.30 - favourite should be running in the 3 miler tomorrow imo. Would win either. Didn't convince over this trip previously, but should have enough class to win.

BETS

1.30 - Tahmuras
2.50 - Into Overdrive / Top Ville Ben
4.10 - Brandy Love
4.50 - Samuel Spade

 

If High Definition ( first race ) improves his jumping, you’d expect him to be a good ew bet.
He’s a classy flat horse but he hasn’t seemingly taken to hurdling as yet !
I backed him at 12’s a while ago and he’s now up at 20’s so there’s obviously not many folk agree except Dreamboy possibly ?

 

Bet365 offering same bet on Constitution Hill

 

Going to be a hard day. A few well matched horses taking each other on;

1:30 Facile Vega.
2:10 Jonbon on a coin toss. El Fabiolo could easily win though.
2:50 Stick a pin in it. Threeunderthrufive e/w. (Just because I've backed it before).
3:30 State Man. Taking on the odds on favourite for a bit of interest.
4:10 Marie's Rock. Jumping on the band wagon because in honesty I fancied all the principles in this race. I'll be sick if Echoes in the Rain wins.
4:50 Afadil e/w. I liked the look of Tekao but felt like I'd be following the money.
5:30 Can't back Gaillard du Mesnil at evens. Mister Coffey e/w. Just because I've bought the horse in the past.

 

Thanks to all for the suggestions
1.30 Tahmuras
2.10 El Fabiola
2.50 The Big Breakaway
3.30 Constitution Hill
4.10 Marie's Rock
4.50 Jazzy Matty
5.30 Mahler Mission

If there's any juice in any of these I'll be having each way's on the exchange. If the price looks too short to me I wont be backing (Even odds on favourites have bad days/fall/refuse/unseat/run out etc...)

 

Paul Nicholls was quite bullish about Tahmuras. I'd already backed my quota in that race though.

 

13.30 - Inthepocket (not expecting anything other than Fecile vega though)
14.10 - jonbon
14.50 - monbeg genius
15.30 - constitution hill
16.10 - Honeysuckle
16:50 - Bad
17.30 - minella crooner

 

2.50
the big breakaway