30 points left to play for…

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by Chef Tyke, Mar 25, 2023.

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  1. Micky Finn

    Micky Finn Well-Known Member

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    ^^^ this ^^^. I'm looking at the Morecambe and Accrington games thinking we should really be five points better off.....
     
    Micky Finn, Mar 25, 2023
    #21
  2. Arc

    Archerfield Well-Known Member

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    Plymouth have got an easy run in because they have played most of the better teams and got a decent points tally from them.

    If we did get automatic either we will have had an amazing run in or one of the top two implode. I could see us doing really well but still not quite making it.

    I think we may easily beat Sheff united’s record of 90 points and not get automatic.

    Still a great season but then the lottery of the play-offs.
     
    Archerfield, Mar 25, 2023
    #22
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  3. Micky Finn

    Micky Finn Well-Known Member

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    Said this last week - I'd rather miss out on automatics sooner rather than later and go into the playoffs with a bit of bounce. Better that than missing out by a point/GD and limping in....
     
    Micky Finn, Mar 25, 2023
    #23
  4. sadbrewer

    sadbrewer Well-Known Member

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    Plymouth don't play again until the 7th of April, by then the games in hand will have been played... If ourselves and Ipswich both win our games we will be 2pts behind Plymouth but both with better GD, leaves them little room for slip ups... although tbh that applies to everyone in the top four.
     
    sadbrewer, Mar 25, 2023
    #24
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  5. Dalestykes

    Dalestykes Well-Known Member

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    We really don’t want to be faffing around with the Play Offs. Plymouth and Bolton will have a huge advantage if either of them make the Final - no one knows that better than us!

    Tbh all that matters is Exeter. Everything else can wait.
     
    Dalestykes, Mar 25, 2023
    #25
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  6. Redarmy87

    Redarmy87 Well-Known Member

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    Just win the next half :)
     
    Redarmy87, Mar 25, 2023
    #26
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  7. ley

    leythtyke Well-Known Member

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    Didn’t Sunderland make both finals last time we were in this league, and lose both? Pizza cup final not much of an advantage to the side that loses.
     
    leythtyke, Mar 25, 2023
    #27
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  8. ley

    leythtyke Well-Known Member

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    We need 8 wins, or 7 wins and 2 or 3 draws to have a chance of top 2. For that to happen, we’ll likely need Tuesday’s starting 11 to be available for all the matches. We’ve shown we can now do well against the top teams, it’s the Bristol 0-0s we need to guard against.
     
    leythtyke, Mar 25, 2023
    #28
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  9. lk3

    lk311 Well-Known Member

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    Didn’t realise Bolton game.
    Was saying they were away in a derby game with Exeter.
     
    lk311, Mar 25, 2023
    #29
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  10. Jack Tatty

    Jack Tatty Well-Known Member

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    win our 2 games in hand puts us just 2 points behind Plymouth. They still have toough games at Bolton and Shrewsbury.

    We have also got the Ipswich game to play and their run in is probably the toughest of the top 4. We are only 3 points behind and a game in hand.

    Wednesday will definitely win the league in my opinion.

    Dont rule us out. Keep the faith.

    edit

    Just realised that Plymouth v Bolton is efl final.
     
    Jack Tatty, Mar 25, 2023
    #30
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  11. Marc

    Marc Administrator Staff Member Admin

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    Agreed. If we get an auto spot, Plymouth or Wednesday will have had to have thrown it away really. I also think we'll need a collapse, to finish outside the top 6 now. I'd prefer to avoid Ipswich in the semis.
     
    Marc, Mar 25, 2023
    #31
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  12. Stephen Dawson

    Stephen Dawson Well-Known Member

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    You can drop eight points from ten games and still have promotion form. 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats. Not exactly as far fetched as winning the Krypton factor.

    People automatically associate dropping points with horror runs. That doesn't have to be the case and why we still have a chance of automatic.

    Ipswich have nine games left and us to play. Plymouth have eight games left.

    I'd say forget Wednesday and hope for the slip up from either Ipswich, Plymouth or both. As we have games in hand on those.

    All things being equal we won't overhaul Wednesday unless they have a disaster.
     
    Stephen Dawson, Mar 25, 2023
    #32
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  13. Wat

    Watcher_Of_The_Skies Well-Known Member

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    I think Wednesday will be fine, injuries aside. Plymouth I fancy to drop points in their away games.

    Plymouth (Last 11 Away)
    Won 3
    Drawn 6
    Lost 2

    They have to play (away):
    Morecombe
    Exeter
    Shrewsbury
    Port Vale (last game of season)

    They'll all be tough, especially Exeter and Shrewsbury who are both solid at home. If Wednesday, us and Ipswich win their game(S) in hand then there will be some extra pressure.

    Our game against Ipswich game will likely be a big deciding influence. They've still got to go to Derby (next game) and Peterborough. The other games look more straightforward, but you never can tell when any team might slip up...
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2023
    Watcher_Of_The_Skies, Mar 25, 2023
    #33
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  14. Stephen Dawson

    Stephen Dawson Well-Known Member

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    Cheers for going in a bit deeper. It kind of echoes my point.
     
    Stephen Dawson, Mar 25, 2023
    #34
  15. Micky Finn

    Micky Finn Well-Known Member

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    Morecambe
     
    Micky Finn, Mar 25, 2023
    #35
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  16. Mr C

    Mr C Well-Known Member

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    Playoffs are NOT a lottery. It’s a straight knockout competition. A lottery is something else altogether.. :)
     
    Mr C, Mar 25, 2023
    #36
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  17. Jack Tatty

    Jack Tatty Well-Known Member

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    You're going to like this. Not a lottery.
     
    Jack Tatty, Mar 25, 2023
    #37
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  18. Dalestykes

    Dalestykes Well-Known Member

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    The Coaches/Players who put Millwall to the sword were in no doubt as to the value of that previous Wembley appearance.
     
    Dalestykes, Mar 25, 2023
    #38
  19. Archey

    Archey Well-Known Member

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    Allowing for goal difference, we need 4 points more than Ipswich to finish above them, 7 more than Wednesday and 8/9 more than Plymouth from 10 games.

    Despite the run we've been on, in the last 10 games we've managed 2 more than Ipswich, 3 more than Wednesday and 7 more than Plymouth.

    Finishing above Ipswich is in our hands as we have a game in hand over them, and have to play them.

    Finishing above either Wednesday or Plymouth too is going to require one of them to drop more points than they have been doing. Of the two, I actually think Wednesday are more likely to drop points. They've got injury concerns and a slightly harder run of games, albeit they've 2 more games to play than Plymouth.

    We've got to keep winning ourselves of course, because dropping 2 or 3 points here or there alleviates the pressure on the sides above us.

    I honestly think it's a nigh on impossible task to finish top 2 from here. I said the same 5 games ago however, and we're in a much stronger position now than we were then.
     
    Archey, Mar 25, 2023
    #39
  20. YT

    YT Well-Known Member

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    If we win the remaining 10 we’ll finish top two. The end.
     
    YT, Mar 25, 2023
    #40
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