Projected table - just for fun

Here's my prediction:

Burton Albion A (W)
Shrewsbury H (W)
Forest Green A (W)
Lincoln City A (D)
Oxford H (W)
Ipswich H (L)
MK Dons A (W)
Peterborough H (D)

5 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from our remaining 8 matches for me. That would give us a total of 92 points. I expect Ipswich to motor on and win the league title given their January signings have really strengthened their team and their current form is outstanding. I think it will be a fight between us, Wednesday and Plymouth for the second automatic spot.

Just to add that quite a few posts on here are dismissing Plymouth. They appear to have an easier run in (on paper) and could get some confidence back with a win at Morecambe on Friday.

 

I filled that in just before the Cheltenham game. Had us to finish 4th but I think I had us dropping points against Derby, Wednesday and Plymouth. Just done it again now and got us finishing 3rd, above Wednesday and a point behind Ipswich. I can't see Plymouth dropping enough points for us to catch them, and I put us down for a draw vs Ipswich, so it's all on that game really.

 

If we get 13 points out of the next 5 games, that would put us right in it, and possibly in the top 2 by then. A defeat to Ipswich in those circumstances would be deflating

 

the way I am looking at it is that before the Ipswich match we will need to get within touching distance of 2 of the 3 teams.

We will only need to gain a point on Wednesday as we have a game in hand, and gain 3 on Ipswich. It is then in our hands with 3 games to go. The Ipswich home game will be all or nothing.

Catching Plymouth is trickier although if they lose on Friday they may just capitulate.

We are top of the form table in the last 30,25,20,15,10 games and 2nd in the last 5.

 

Sheffield Wednesday have the easiest run in at 1.18PPG with us 2nd on 1.21.

Plymouth then Ipswich out of the top 4.

https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england3&tid=10

Run-in analysis: opponents' current PPG (Points Per Game) values
Home PPG of opponents faced away, away PPG of opponents faced at home
GP Pts PPG Played
opponents Remaining opponents Played
vs
Remaining Next 4
opponents
1 Sheffield Wed 39 80 2.05 1.37 1.18 +14%

1.05
2 Plymouth 38 80 2.11 1.36 1.25 +8%

1.45
3 Ipswich Town 38 78 2.05 1.32 1.45

-10% 1.27
4 Barnsley 38 75 1.97 1.37 1.21 +12%

1.17
5 Bolton 38 64 1.68 1.41 1.11 +21%

1.14
6 Peterborough 39 64 1.64 1.33 1.50

-13% 1.26
7 Derby County 39 64 1.64 1.36 1.36 -0% 1.21

 

Can't help thinking back to Good Friday 1982, being 2-0 up away at Grimsby at half time through two goals from Colin Walker, thoroughly believing we were going up, only to lose 3-2.

 

Remember it well.
Totally dominated the first half and came away at the end wondering how on earth we'd lost.

 

That sounds utterly traumatic.

 

On paper the tricky three games are Lincoln, Ipswich and Peterborough. That said it doesn't always work like that. You take what you can. We're within 5 points now with a game in hand. All teams will have a wobble. I just hope we only wobble in the least games compared with our rivals. I think 92 minimum will be enough for automatic. A bonus win in any of the tricky ones and it might be more comfortable.

Just one game at a time because before the March fixtures I thought we'd be fighting it out just to get in the Play-Offs.

 

Last 5 is possibly too small a sample size to be statistically significant. Ipswich are obviously on fire, but surely they'll drop points somewhere along the line?

 

We all will.

 

It was. I try to forget about it, but some people keep reminding me...

 

I'm not sure if Colin Walker is available for selection this Friday. It shouldn't happen again.

 

It’s giving me headache. Wake me up for the playoffs..

 

You know you're overthinking things when somebody asks you what you are doing, and the answer is "checking Morecambe's recent home form", and then when asked why, you have to say "because they play Plymouth Argyle on Friday"

 

What is it?

 

I fancy Plymouth to drop points at Exeter and Shrewsbury away (both top 8 in the home form tables in the last 10 games). The other games look more plain sailing but those two look tricky, especially as Plymouth aren't great away.

 

W6
L6
D8

 

I agree. I think we'll be in the top 2 if we get 95 points, especially if we beat Ipswich. That 4-0 hammering for Plymouth yesterday may affect their confidence. Let's hope so! Their away form is nowhere near as good as their home form. Who knows? Perhaps Morecambe, dire as they were at Oakwell, may beat them this Friday. They also have a tough away derby at Exeter. If Wednesday can lose at Forest Green, anything can happen. By the way, our goal difference is already 6 better than Plymouth's, and if we catch Wednesday on points, there's a decent chance our goal difference will be better than theirs too.