Local Elections.

Equally amusing, then, that your whole basis for starting this thread was a lie. I'd have thought someone with so much political experience would have avoided that open goal.

 

what was the lie please be precise. The source I used was John Curtice who reviewed the LE results and extrapolated a GE performance of 35%. Are you saying that you as bloke on Barnsley web site knows more than Britain’s go to polling analyst. Huge If true.

for clarity Curtice analysed LE results and said if replicated in a GE would march the 35% achieved by Lab in 2019

 

It is and does.

 

Maybe try reading a little further back in the thread.

 

Is there a bit where people on a Barnsley Football website where people know better than all the serious pollsters. Huge if true.

 

One way to find out, although I'd say it's more of a study in not misrepresenting what a pollster says.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-stamer-conservative-new-labour-b2337901.html

keir probably had little control over the headline but not great messaging.

 

Curtice drew the conclusion that based on the LE results the next GE would result in a hung parliament with a collapse in conservative vote share but little change in Labour from 2019.

In the dim and distant part of my role working in a very minor research capacity for Labour was to analyse polling. Actual v predicted. A lot of notice was taken of LE results. They were seen as a margin of error guide to predicted actual results.


I’ve been out of the game for a fair while now but based on the tories swift removal of May after the last set of LE results and Keirs softening of views to include electoral pacts after the latest bout seems likely the methodologies haven’t changed that much.

 

What's not to like?

 

Good thoughtful thread.

 

well at least he’s being honest at last.

 

Strange as it seems, his poll rating seems undimmed by personal vendettas.

 

Poll ratings almost entirely reliant on how poor the Tories are doing. Instead of grasping the nettle and being ambitious at a time when the country can't afford not to be, he's offering nothing at all. On Brexit he's said he doesn't want immigration, but instead to train more nurses here in the UK. But he won't increase wages, so where will the people come from?

His personal poll rating BTW is 49% say he's doing badly. 31% doing well and 20% don't know.

This is an excellent watch BTW. Very honest and pragmatic from Andrew Fisher, Corbyn's ex policy man. Title is clickbait, interview definitely not.

 

Latest lie. In the hustings i pledge that EU citizens will have a vote in UK elections. Ditched today.

I’m sure the apologists will somehow blame the tories, Covid or the Ukraine got this now being unachievable

 

His personal poll rating? Trialling to both don’t know and Sunak last time I looked.

 

Starmer doesnt lie though does he? He has a red rosette on so he's automatically incapable of doing do. 'I say certain things and then completely backtrack but because there is always a war in the world and Im not Jeremy Corbyn I feel I can do that and still get plaudits. By the way, my mum was a nurse so I'm a decent bloke really. Honest.'

 

That's an odd article. Setting aside the Starmer quotes, the leaked policy document has some very progressive stuff in it. The sooner Labour release their programme so we can see where they stand on a range of issues - the better.