Score predictions - Sheffield Wednesday - Wembley

Bumper 100 page Wembley edition (£10). 48 games, and it has come down to the one match I've dreaded pretty much all season. For a good 20 or so year spell, we suffered agonising loss after loss against Wednesday, often in unfortunate circumstances (Di Canio and Brunt's late winners, Hammill's questionable red card, Paul Warhurst and Emmanuel bloody Frimpong). But over the last 6 or 7 years, the games have relatively been uneventful (Sam Winnall's Oakwell return being the exception), and largely, we've come out on top.

The odds on Wednesday being promoted have varied between 1/100 when they were clear at the top with games in hand, to 28/1 when 4 goals down after the first leg of the play-offs. Well the Owl's have been made 8/7 favourites to achieve promotion within 90 minutes at Wembley. As is often the case, we've been made 12/5 underdogs to top off what has been an unexpectedly exceptional season.

Sheffield Wednesday's record in play off finals is won 1 and lost 1. They've never won a final within 90 minutes, needing extra time to overcome Hartlepool in 2005 at the Millennium Stadium. Their 1-0 defeat to Hull in 2016 is their only visit to the new Wembley stadium. Wednesday's 2 play off campaigns between then and now have ended in semi final defeat to Huddersfield and Sunderland. In contrast of course, we've won 2 of our 3 play-off finals, albeit our most recent victory over Millwall is the only one over 90 minutes, and have only failed to qualify for a play-off final on one occasion (vs Swansea 2021).

If you believe form plays a part in the outcome of the play offs, it's worth noting that despite Wednesday's dip in form towards the end of the season, they were 3rd in the form table over the last 5 games of the season, 4th over the last 10 and 3rd over the last 15. We were below them in each of these form tables, and finished the regular season 17th in the form table over the final 5 games.

As mentioned previously, our h2h record over Wednesday has improved in recent years. There was a long stretch between 2009 and 2020 where our only victories over the owls came in pre-season friendlies. We've won 3 of the last 4 meetings, and have been defeated in just 2 of the last 9.

One player I have concerns over is Lee Gregory. The 34 year old blades fan has a good goalscoring record against the reds. Having allegedly turned us down to join Millwall ahead of the 14/15 season, Gregory has netted 5 times for 3 different clubs against the reds, including a brace at Oakwell in March. Gregory has had a reasonably productive goalscoring season, netting 11 league goals in 40 appearances, and remains a danger despite his advancing years.

Scoring first appears to be the key for us. On 29 occasions we've scored the opening goal of the game in the league this season, and we've gone on to win 26 of those, drawing the other 3. In contrast, we've fallen behind first on 14 occasions, losing 12 and drawing 2. Wednesday haven't lost either when scoring the first goal this season. However of the 32 occasions where they've opened the scoring, they've won 25 and drawn 7. When conceding first, they've gone on to win 3, draw 3 and lose 6. So there is a tendency for Wednesday to fight back if they do suffer adversity. Coincidentally, both teams experience very early or very late goals in their favour. The game at Oakwell supplied 5 goals in the first or last 15 minutes of the game.

Championship referee Tim Robinson takes charge of this one. Fresh off the back of dishing out 7 yellow cards in Sunderland's first leg victory over Luton in the Championship play offs, Mr Robinson has dished out 165 yellow cards this season, which is 4 per game. He's averaged a red card every 6 or so games. In his 14 appointments of Barnsley games, the reds have won just 2, drawn 4 and lost 8, giving 3 red cards for and 1 against. Coincidentally, the 2 victories are the only games of ours he's refereed in league 1. He was also the referee in Barnsley's last visit to Wembley, the 1-0 3rd round cup defeat to Spurs.

This will also be the 3rd time Tim Robinson has taken charge of a Barnsley and Wednesday game. He was the referee for Wednesday's last victory over the reds, 2-1 at Oakwell in 2021, when a pair of Jordan Rhodes goals ended the reds winning streak under Valerien Ismael. He also took charge of the 1-1 draw at Oakwell, shortly before the pandemic. Cauley Woodrow cancelled out a Josh Windass goal in a drab encounter, which didn't scream local derby in the slightest. He has taken charge of 16 Wednesday games in total, with the Owls winning 7, drawing 6 and losing 3, most recently their 1-0 win over Wigan late last season. He's also awarded Wednesday 3 red cards.

Penalties. Sheffield Wednesday have been awarded 10 penalties this season. 10! Of those, they've scored 8. In turn, they've conceded just 3. In stark contrast, we of course have had 1 penalty all season, which was missed by Adam Phillips (albeit he scored the rebound), and have conceded 7, the majority of which coming during that spell of poor form just after Christmas.

When the big games have come around this season, we've generally dealt with the game pretty well. In the second half of the season, we had comfortable victories over a number of teams around us in the table (Wednesday included) and the occasion very rarely got the better of us. The expectation around Wednesday to get promoted has certainly had it's effect on the Owls performances on the pitch. After their club record unbeaten run came to an end, they went through a spell of poor results, which ultimately cost them an automatic promotion place. They crumbled in the first leg of the play-offs, and whilst their turnaround was remarkable, the pressure was off and they had nothing further to lose. Wednesday however, haven't lost to the same opponent 3 times in a season since 2004, where they were beaten 4 times in total by Blackpool.

In terms of predicting a scoreline, almost a quarter of our games this season have ended in a Barnsley win by 2 goals. Whereas the most common scoreline in Wednesday games has been 1-0 (15% of the time). In both games this season, Barnsley have covered the -1 handicap, with Cole scoring first and Norwood scoring anytime. For a repeat of that, you can get a price of approx 61/1. With that in mind, I'm going for a repeat of our last play-off visit to Wembley, and a 3-1 Barnsley win, with Cole, Phillips and Norwood on the sco resheet. YOU REDS!!!

 

I would love to predict a Reds’ win but I just cannot see it, unfortunately…

We’ve beat them twice this season, they’re due a win against us…

They have older heads who’re more than likely going to deal with the pressure better than our guys and after the Posh 2nd leg it seems like it’s written in the stars for them…

3-1 Wednesday… they’re 2 up by 75 mins’, we get a conciliation goal but they finish it in injury time to 45k Wednesday fans bouncing.

It. Is. Going. To. Be. Horrible….

 

Very good....imho it will very tight. Their experience and penalties shows a definite advantage over our games, let's hope that doesn't ruin it.

 

2-1 reds. Extra time. Max Watters the hero.

 

Barnsley player sent off 2 - 0 Wednesday

 

See for me, it's the pressure on the game which works in our favour. I've seen nothing from Wednesday that says they'll cope if the atmosphere starts to turn against them. They're expected to win, as they were in both of their defeats to us in the regular season.

 

4-2 Reds.

 

1.2 to them unfortunately. They take a 2.0 lead within 15 minutes-2 Lee Gregory goals. We then batter them for next 85. We will have 20+ shots in those 85 minutes but I feel we will only score in around 70th minute- Norwood. Try as we might we are unable to get a 2nd

 

Ahhh been waiting for this.

Can’t see anything other than a Sheffield Wednesday win, 0-2 despite us playing well we fall short where it matters, in front of goal.

 

I honestly can't call this.
If we 'turn up' I would like to think the fact we are younger and fitter will be our big advantage at the end of a long season.
But if I were a neutral, I would be backing the underdog (us), though, as I am not a neutral and have witnessed many unfortunate losses to these, I am torn...

Top write up, as ever, though Archey

 

Superb analysis. Thanks.

 

2-1 in 90 minutes and COYR

 

Wednesday win.

 

A win for the super reds. Barry Bannan flinging his arms around while our young uns run them ready.

 

It's going to be one of those "if only" games, where we bemoan a shocking decision or an outrageous slice of fortune. Just like so many Wednesday games in the past.

Whatever the outcome, I just hope the referee is not a big factor in the scoreline. Watch out for those cheating dives in the box Mr Robinson.

 

There will be one of only two results - either a Reds win or a Tim Robinson win.

I cannot believe this Barnsley hating, big club loving, egotistical, constantly out of position, never positionally advanced enough to fairly ref a pressing team, best friend of Gary Willard, who has already screwed us over in a game against the same opposition has even been considered for this fixture.

 

Been waiting for this thread, thanks for your posts throughout the season Mr Archery.

Barnsley 5 Sheffield Wednesday 4, its gunner be a cracking day, enjoy everybody, C,O,Y,R,

 

I think people are giving them a little too much credit for beating an awful Peterborough side last week. They played right in to Wednesdays hands with the tactics, sat back, no pressing and just generally looked dog ****. Suppose they did well to score 5 like but I don’t buy this narrative that Wednesday are now world beaters.

I’ve seen Wednesday twice against us this season and a few times on Sky and haven’t been impressed at all. We need to watch the space in behind out fullbacks press their midfield to death and no doubt we’ll do just that! We have more energetic players than them, we have the better defence, and arguably without Byers the better midfield.

2-0 Barnsley