Things hotting up in Russia…

Surely he's had the nod from someone high up in the military that if they get to a certain point the army will fall in line with him. Otherwise I can't see how they can possibly succeed.

Either way Prigozhin will be dead within a year, either st the hands of Putin if he fails or whoever ultimately assumes power if he succeeds.

 

If we thought Putin in charge of the button was bad,what`s this bloke gonna be like

 

I'm sure the US don't want this, regardless of how much they dislike Putin.

 

It's 700 miles from Rostov to Moscow. A lot can change in that time. I don't think Putin will be overthrown. But all bets are off. I'd just edge that, if they were to get rid of Putin, it'd be a massively bloody affair and whoever comes next will likely be much worse. We forget that Putin is genuinely very popular across Russia.

 

Unless of course they're behind it

 

Yeah, you'd think ultimately it would probably fail, but as you say who knows? It could get messy for a while.

 

Actually, he's categorically stated that nukes should never be used. He's of the opinion that Russia started an absurd conflict, so they should either win it fair and square, or admit defeat. But he's an absolute loose cannon, so who knows?

 

What's your gut feeling MT. Could this be good news or bad?

 

If you're Ukrainian, it's likely excellent news. History is littered with examples of how badly it goes when leaders fight internal and external conflicts/wars at the same time.

 

That's some serious Wagner Love.

 

I'd say a bit trigger happy.

 

It hadn’t occurred to me to be honest, but mercenaries fight for money and NATO have deep pockets

 

Hope everyone can stay safe. It's horrible what people are going through and through no fault of their own. If Sunak was acting like Putin we would see it as unfair if we nationals we were seen as outcasts around the world when we can't control the actions of our leader.

Hopefully it's over sooner the better. Getting back there must take some travelling. You obviously feel safe as a westerner and Brit to travel back to a country your homeland is against, which is good.

 

Probably very bad short term however it plays out, but longer term it's clearly another nail in Putin's coffin. The end of Putin is what we are all hoping for, but the path there could be very messy.

 

Yes, the way that regular Russians have been treated by the governments of certain Schengen countries is absolutely disgraceful.

 

Maybe in the provinces, but he's by and large despised in the major cities. However, the majority of Muscovites, no matter how much they hate Putin, are more than smart enough to realise that Prigozhin running the country is likely to be many magnitudes worse.

 

Don't give up hope. If Russian history tells us anything, it's that things can change very quickly and unexpectedly.

 

Surely there's no chance of Prigozhin running the country even if the coup succeeds? I was assuming that someone else would fill the void and Prigozhin would get the old polonium sandwich because regardless of how useful he might have been in the process, nobody wants to keep a bloke around who has already mutinied once.

 

It's actually not too bad. Stansted to Tallinn, bus to the border, walk across, then bus or taxi to St Petersburg. Border checks take quite a bit longer these days, but it's surprisingly cheap straightforward. Last time was a farce as my wife's Schengen visa had expired so we had to go via Turkey. That was a proper ballache, but she's got a new one now, so we're good to go. Except of course, if things really hot up we'll probably give it a miss this summer.

 

Alone he's got no chance, so it really depends how much support he's got on the inside. Kadyrov has already spoken out against him, which is a blow. But Putin has pissed off so many of the elite that I wouldn't completely rule out a coup. However, even if he does topple Putin, I think his chances of then staying in power are slim to zero.