THE RED WALL

Bit of a shame in some ways though, the Tories will hang on to the bitter end now, whereas they might have tried their luck with a snap election before.

 

Brilliant vid.

 

Excellent results for Labour Party regardless of one's views about the leadership. Long may the Tory vote continue to collapse. Hopefully people are now beginning to see how evil, corrupt and incompetent the Tories are. Country is a shambles on lots of levels.

 

That must make the SNP the arsehole

 

What really surprised me is how many voters in both constituencies voted for the tories!! I would've thought even dyed in the wool tories have had enough of the sleaze and incompetence of this shower.

 

I really hope it is.

That has brought some real belly laughs from me. Brilliant!

 

I saw this morning that if these swings were maintained for a general election, the Tories would be the 4th party with 20 seats! Obviously that isn't going to happen, but it would be a good start...

 

I go to a gym in north Leeds most days. It is a Tory area, although the people are quite ethnically diverse, (a lot of rich asian folks, who are a good laugh to talk to TBH). When I'm sitting in the sauna, with a lot of older blokes who are owners of multiple houses that they rent out, they seem pissed off with the Tories too. Not sure they will vote Labour, or even Lib Dem. If those folks don't vote, as they didn't these bye elections, it will be a landslide. They all are traditional Tory voters, but at least say they won't vote. I keep my political affiliations quiet, as there is no point going there.

Only thing for Labour is how they get the youngsters out to vote. Corbyn did that. I feel that needs to be looked at. Rayner will attract some in the north, but they need to get Stormzy, or whoever. Can Starmer do that? A bit of charisma does win elections I'm afraid.

 

It seems unreal that if you lived in either constituency you'd vote for the party which gave you Labrador brain fart Nadine and the guy who is a serial Pincher.

 

The Mid Beds result is particularly significant for me. A genuine 3-party contest where anyone not supportive of Starmer's Labour Party had a meaningful way to oppose both them and the Tories, and they still won the seat. This being despite the Lib Dems doing their usual campaign tactics of crimes against statistics with some the material they were sending out.

Greg Hands in full Comical Ali mode on the interview rounds this morning.

Two great results, but there's no room for any complacency, and thankfully there's a leadership team that won't allow it to creep in. If anything, last night increased the chances that we'll have to wait for over 12 months to vote these f##kers out of office and there's untold damage that they can cause in that that time with their increasingly deranged policies.

 

They did at the last election, on the back of a load of lies. Flag waving, bus stickering promises by Johnson. How ever dyed in the wool Tory you are the rising cost of living, inflation rate & the time to get a hip replacement on the NHS will cost them.

 

He may have got more of them to turn out at demos holding Socialist Worker banners, but he didn't have any noticeable impact on the young voter age group that wasn't replicated through all the age demographics. Overall 18-24 voter turnout increased from 2015 to 2017, and then again from 2017 to 2019. The 2017 to 2019 increase came from Tory and Lib Dem voters, with Labour showing a similar deterioration in turnout (arguably slightly bigger) than it did across all the other age groups.

https://www.britishelectionstudy.co...oting-behaviour-at-the-2019-general-election/

 

The very latest an election can be called is mid-November 2024 for a vote in January - but if we get much past October, the weather will suppress the olds vote and many of them vote Tory - so they'll want it earlier if at all possible. My money is on summer next year - when families with young kids are away on their holidays...

 

My bet would be for it to be called mid to late summer to be held early autumn

 

Absolutely delighted about the collapse in the Tory vote.

I'd add a note of caution though. Labour's number of votes actually dropped in Mid Bedford from the 2019 election - 13,872 votes down from 14,028. Whilst in Tamworth Labour only secured an extra 800 votes from 2019.

Labour's cautious pragmatism might win out, but we're seeing a collapse in Tory support at the moment OR Tory voters staying home in by-election protest, not a huge increase in Labour votes. Generally parties of the left only win general elections when they offer a vision of hope. Let's hope Labour have that vision.

 

Should do minor acts of political subversion. I sat through a meeting last week with some minor Govt ministers to discuss wearing my Cole not Dole socks.

 

I think that whilst these results are stunning, Labour needs to beware. They weren't as a result of Tory voters in 2019 switching to Labour, they were almost entirely down to Tory voters not turning out. This means that a significant number of people in both constituencies still ideologically support the Tories but not the current sht-show and couldn't bring themselves to vote for anyone else, so they stayed at home. These people will be out in force in future elections, Labour MUST reform our voting system otherwise the Tories will be back to destroy anything of worth that Labour does.

 

May or June is the most popular time for elections. Only the last election was in December...

 

The first signs of a General Election looming will be when moves are afoot to increase pay-outs to MPs who aren't relected following a General Election. No money to pay nurses and doctors what they're worth but plenty for parachute payments i.e. rewards for failure.

 

Yeah. my money's on May/June, on the back of a give away budget in April.