Interesting electoral analysis

Today is the 4 year anniversary of the 2019 general election. This twitter thread, posted earlier today, shows how various classes of voter have shifted in terms of voting intention since then.

https://x.com/LukeTryl/status/1734608260160954717?s=20

The sub-tweets in the thread provide some brief descriptions of each category.

Looking at it overall, it makes a lot of sense to me, and puts into perspective what the overall positive impact of shedding the far left Corbynista rump has provided to Labour, obviously assisted by the Tory self-destruction across the same period.

Essentially, this is what Labour need to do to win elections. I expected it to take at least two electoral cycles to achieve it after the 2019 disaster. Thankfully, for the country as a whole, it's happening much more quickly. I'm taking nothing for granted pending the next GE, and neither are those within Labour preparing for the election, but analysis like this is greatly encouraging to see.

 

Labour lost elections in 2010 & 2015 from a centre right position based on pro austerity and anti immigration. Analysis of that would be equally apposite.

Why did they lose then? Why did Brown get less than 30% of the vote in 2010? Why did Milliband lose all the Scottish seats in2015?

At the moment the Tories are eating themselves and have been in power for 13 years so people want a change.

Of course Labour now are up the right of the Cameron government so electing them just ensures more of the same.

I see Streeting is using the same rhetoric bashing the NHS as The Tories. Starmer bashing asylum seekers. What I don’t see are any possible solutions for the issues of our country. Maybe you do see some. If so what policies that Labour are promoting do you think will be an improvement. Not ‘feels’ but actual policies.

I see polls today tightening to about a 12% lead which is brilliant news as Starmer will be forced into coalition with more left wing parties like the LibDems and SNP.

Stopping him imposing more austerity and privatisation is the key so hoping for a hung parliament as the only option king that can save the country from another term of right wing extremism.

 

Great. Needed a pick me up.

 

Who tha voting for next time, Mr D?

 

A Turkish referee.

 

Been feeling a bit sorry for myself since that post this morning. Should have edited it. I know better too.

Then been to see George's Christmas production/ nativity and found out Laura has got someone else.

Not been greatest of days mate.

 

Not really a balanced analysis JV, given you are always telling us you worked in politics. For starters there's a world of difference between spending within budgets, and 'austerity', which as I recall actually meant 20% cuts to public services. Nowhere have I seen Starmer or Reeves advocate that. And "bashing asylum seekers" is somewhat emotive language. Starmer opposes the Rwanda forced deportation (without consideration of asylum claim) scheme and has proposed more humane and co-operative ways of controlling migration - especially illegal migration. But hey - we both know our own position on his leadership!

 

New chapter mate. Move on, and stay strong.

 

Cheers mate .

 

You just beat me to it …. Be strong Stephen

 

I think the SNP are set for a disaster tbh... it seems to have passed under the radar but they haven't had a victory for over a year. There have been 13 by-elections in Scotland in the last twelve months... only Council seats admittedly... apart from the Rutherglen Parliamentary seat, but the SNP have lost in every one and almost all had been SNP held prior to the election. I think Labour will win much bigger in Scotland than many are predicting at the moment.

 

Every time I hear the word Corbynista I die a little inside. Cringeworthy. Grow up

 

This a dull playground insult from idiots with zero
Imagination.

 

If you don’t understand that fiscal rules = ongoing austerity then you don’t understand economics.

 

You can’t on one hand say people want change after 13 years, then on the other ask why Labour lost in 2010.

Ed Milliband centre right? Whether he was or not, he was painted as a left wing leader by the press (‘red Ed’), which seemingly put voters off.

 

‘far left Corbynista rump’ - it’s like an article Dan Hodges would post to get clicks & comments only it’s on a football forum from a supposed Labour supporter. Bizarre

 

I can’t wait for Keith to completely reverse his right-wing approach once elected.

 

I make no claims regarding my level of understanding of economics. However, it does seem to me (as a layman) that lavish promises of unfunded future spending increases are likely to lead us down the same blind alley as Liz Truss found herself in, notwithstanding any magical thinking from Professor Portes. I'd be more of a Paul Johnson/IFS man myself, as I prefer economic arguments that actually make sense. As for 'fiscal rules', then not all fiscal rules are made equal. But Rachel Reeves' version seems sensible enough to me. Labour's future spending plans appear to be predicated on growth, but unlike Truss I think the aim is to achieve the growth first before spending the proceeds!

Anyway, have you read the Nick Thomas-Symonds books?