Is the quality of League 1 better or worse than last season?

There have been a fair few comments saying that the only reason we are doing so well is because the quality of the league is poor this year compared to last year. So I did a little digging and ran a few numbers to compare:

I compared the points total of the team in each league position (1 to 24) over the course of 25 games in 2022/23 and again in 2023/24. Note: That is to say the names of each time aren't important, just how many points they have in that position, compared to last season. One small difference is Bolton have only played 24 games this year.

Results

The top two teams, Portsmouth and Peterborough are slightly behind where Plymouth and Wednesday were at the same point last season (3 points in each position). Derby are a point worse off compared to the same position last year, but the teams in 4th to 7th have seen a gain in their points total compared to the same positions last year (on average 5 points each).

For the rest of the league it's a bit of a mixed bag, with some teams slightly worse off, others slightly better off, but overall there's no massive difference to suggest that the league is significantly better or worse.

The correlation between the points this year and last year is very high (0.96), strongly suggesting that the points are very similar and there's not a statistically noticeable difference between the two seasons. You might expect to see a lower number if there were larger discrepencies in the points - if some teams were significantly worse (and conversely better for others, as those points have to go somewhere!), but that's not really the case.



Teams in Green = Promoted from Division 2
Teams in Red = Relegated from Championship

 

Whichever league we are in, every year it is "the weakest ever" according to some.

 

I’m not sure this is the best way to work this out as there’s only a finite amount of points to play for anyway.

I honestly think you can only judge it on what you see with your own eyes. I’ve said all season that it’s a lot worse, but I’m coming round to the idea it might not be. In terms of entertainment it’s pretty dire, but on reflection that’s not the same thing is it?

All I know is many of the games I’ve seen this season (whether the reds have been involved or not) have been a tough watch.

 

Some teams are stronger, some are weaker, same as every season in every division.

 

Much worse. We have witnessed it with our eyes. Points accrued are pretty meaningless for qualitative analysis


No one in this league is as good as Ipswich, Plymouth, Wednesday or last season us.

With those probably playing in it next year there will never be an easier time to get promoted.

 

Correct, points are finite, but you'd expect to see a greater spread of points between the top and bottom teams if there were significant changes in teams getting worse or better. GD might have been useful too, but I can't be arsed to go back and do it again

I can't comment on entertainment value, but I take at face value that we're not as entertaining as last year. We do have more points though!

 

Biased eye witnesses are notoriously unreliable

 

Ipswich, Wednesday and Ipswich were replaced by Reading/ Wigan ( points deductions, basket case clubs) and Blackpool who are not pulling up any trees, it's much worse than many seasons not just last ( imo)

 

Better. No Fritzls

 

Better methinks

 

The quality of the leagues barely change. In a high quality league every team would have a close points tally.

 

The quality of the league depends on the agenda you've been pushing all season. For those that want Collins out then the league is much weaker as it's the only argument left that can be used to explain our good results.

 

Objectively, I would say the overall quality is slightly worse, only on the basis that the 3 teams that went up were stand out teams last season and have been replaced by teams much worse than them.

At the other end the teams that came up from L2 generally seem stronger than the teams they replaced. Even Carlisle seem to be in a false position based on how they played the other day.

The rest of the teams in the middle can only be assumed to be roughly the same overall. Some are a bit stronger (Bolton, Portsmouth), some a bit weaker.

I don't think there is a lot in it in terms of overall quality. However, it's clear that there are not the same stand out teams taking all the top spots that there was last season and on that basis alone, it's a good year to aim for promotion.

 

There aren't as many strong teams at the top, however the quality in the middle and the bottom third is stronger, so there aren't any easy games. This is reflected in the position of the relegated teams, points deductions not withstanding, you'd expect at least one to be top six. Three out of four promoted teams being top half also suggests that they're stronger than the relegated teams from last year. Morecambe and Forest Green in particular were pretty poor, and again that has contributed to a fairly competitive league this time around.

 

that’s how I see it too

 

Does this matter? Are there less promotion spaces if it's considered 'weaker'? Will the table and any statistics relating to this season have an asterix against them stating they should be inferior because the league is considered 'weaker'? Ultimately, it's a moot point and something the Cassandras spout in an effort to jusitfy their view point.

 

Barnsley having a successful season = "weakest Division ever". As sure as night follows day.

 

Over the last 10 seasons in this division, the average points total to go up automatically is 95 (we have 49 so far). We did it with 91 in 18-19. It's been done with 85 before (Burton 15-16).

Usually, 28 wins gets you up (we have 14). We won 26 in 18-19. Burton won 25 in 15-16.

So we'd need to slightly improve this season to pull that off. Based on statistical/historical averages.

75 points - on average - gets you in the play-offs (over the last 10 years).

You'd assume it would take one heck of a drop-off for us not to make the top six.

60 points to play for.

It might well come down to the games against Pompey (x1), Derby (x1), Oxford (x1) and Bolton (x2). And as has been pointed out a lot on here this season, those are the games we've faltered in. It's all very exciting to me anyway. We're in another promotion battle by the looks of it. Be nice to see the crowd rally behind Neill and the lads from kick off and help push them on much like fans did eventually last season. We all perform better with encouragement...

 

I don’t want Collins out but the league is definitely weaker

The crowd will get more noisy if the football is less flat and boring