5 points needed

If I've calculated correctly, we need a maximum of 5 points from our remaining games to guarantee us a play-off place, thanks to the fact that Oxford have to play both Lincoln and Stevenage, so the teams around us have to take points off each other.

If we fail to achieve that, from 5 remaining games, then its not worth thinking about, but it looks like we'll be limping into the playoffs in very disjointed form.

The sooner we can get across the line, the better, as it then gives Collins some options to give Jalo and some of the other fringe players some meaningful playing time prior to the semi-finals.

I'd have been concerned if we'd needed to guarantee more points than this, to be honest, but crunching the numbers has allayed my fears that we're going to get pipped at the post and end up 7th.

Posting this for the re-assurance of anyone else similarly concerned.

 

Where do you think the points will come from because i think we’ll struggle to win our two home games

 

The 5 points assumes the other teams around us maximise the points available in whichever combination. I suspect the actual requirement will be less than 5 points, in reality.

 

Said to my son today, lose at Stevenage and were looking over our shoulders, especially bearing in mind our next game is at Oakwell.

I think we’ll win on Tuesday though

 

On our current performances. I see us getting 2 points and surprisingly that's 2 draws in our home games against Reading and Northampton, maybe we'll manage more. Away is our strength but they are against teams fighting to hit the playoffs, Stevenage and Blackpool. Portsmouth, although they will be on the beach by then, could demolish us.

It's sacking form, but I think they'll give him another year whatever happens.

 

I would say 7pts .

 

We will win our last 2 home games.

 

Go on then, show me the scenario where this is mathematically required.

 

If Lincoln beat Oxford and both win all other games Oxford get 79. So 5 points would be a 2 way tie on 79 and would be very tight GD with Oxford. Lincoln on 80.

Ox v Linc a draw 79 does it (Ox max 80 Linc 78)
Ox win 78 does it (Ox max 82 Linc 77)

 

If, and I/we are only guessing here of course, we get the Efl points deduction... then everybody is going to go apesh*it crazy on here!!.

 

Maybe it's been leaked how many points we're being deducted and club have written this season off?

 

That wun't surprise me actually, Stevie kid lol. I don't trust this lot to be honest!.

 

Thought that said 5 pints needed… was going to chip in with only half to go, but then my vision cleared up slightly.

 

Yeah whatever kid lol, hey can I borrow your DS, I've lost mine. Too many beery drinks again.

 

There's me thinking you were one of the sane ones

 

What makes you not trust them?

 

That's the worst case scenario - a 5 point gap and a potential GD issue, so we should call it 6 points to be certain. There's no scenario where 7 is needed, as per @Dragon Tyke's claim.

To achieve that scenario, Oxford have to beat Peterborough, who I'd excluded from the calculations as being guaranteed a place. If they win out elsewhere then they still get in, so your scenario is feasible.

 

We won’t get them ‘our form has completely tailed off and there is a behind the scenes reason for it.

 

Aww I do try my best croak croak (I'm actually swearing at you in Frog speak there lol).
Remember though, sane is just one more glass of summat, short of being insane.

 

I'm minded to put your theory to the test now, purely in the interests of science.