Grand National 2024...

Based on taking an average of the last three ratings. I've whittled my shortlist down to horses with an average rating higher than their official rating. (Using Racing Post website).

On doing some research into previous running's there's only Corach Rambler in 2023 that has won the race in the last 5 renewals that had an average rating lower than it's official rating of 146. It's average rating was 144. Conversely this year it's official rating is 159 and average rating is 168. It would have to have a decent chance.

In 2022 Noble Yeats had an official rating of 147 and had an average rating of 151.6.
In 2021 Minealla Times had an official rating of 146 and an average rating of 152.6.
In 2019 Tiger Roll had an official rating of 159 and an average rating of 168.6.
Finally in 2018 Tiger Roll had an official rating of 150 and an average rating of 157.

To cut a long story short Corach Rambler was an exception rather than the rule based on recent running's of the race.

 

Only 34 runners and a shorter gap to the first fence. I think they should think about dropping the word grand.

 

It’d be interesting seeing some sort of ratings based on jumping ability namely record at Aintree, number of times fallen, number of bad mistakes etc.
During early covid, there was a computer generated race of past winners which didn’t result in a win for Red Rum or Tiger Roll which was a surprise.
Can’t remember who won it … was it Golden Miller or maybe it was for more recent winners

 

Whilst my system doesn't point you to the exact winner. It does point you towards the winner. At least recently anyway.

 

How does Galvin sound with your system ?

 

Very close baring in mind Corach Rambler was an anomaly when it won off a similar rating. You obviously get the gist. It's on a par with Capadanno and shades it based on it not blotting it's copy book by falling at the first fence. (Capadonno faded).

 

For what it's worth, Corach Rambler looks to have absolutely rock-solid credentials. Top on Timeform and Racing Post Ratings. Won last year (39 runners). Ran the perfect trial when 3rd in the Gold Cup last month, posting a career-best effort. I'd wait for the day though, because with 34 runners and a sprinkling of talented Irish contenders, he's surely going to be at least 5/1 if not better on Saturday.

For a lively outsider though, Mr Redknapp's Shakem Up'Arry would hold a decent each-way chance if getting into the race (he needs ten to come out). He is available at 50/1 (1/5 odds, five places) with Mrs Coates. He incurs no penalty for his win at Cheltenham.

 

Beat Box t'day everyone 13.40 uttoxeter should put some readies in the pot for Aintree

And i see Conflated as a e / w shout in the National [with a run ] but the fav is too small a price for such a big race

 

Ever heard the old adage
"The bigger the field, the bigger the certainty "
Corach Rambler all day long for me

 

terrible

 

Majority of last 20 winners 8 or 9yrs old carrying less than 11stone

 

I always leave selections till nearer the time on turf as we dont have an idea what the ground is like. Also, the National is still a lottery even if one gets on one of the 'better' horses. Too many over keen horses and jockeys, unseats, falls, horses brought down, refusals, pulling-ups. My advice - dont expect to win so just put a small amount on for fun. DO NOT put the mortgage on the race!!!

 

That sums my season up lost on 21 bets out of 28 at Cheltenham, and havnt had a football accumulator up all seson, SORRY

 

Always an interesting one, this! I've never felt it was a lottery. However, given the average winner's price, you have to appreciate that you are likely to back the winner of this race less often than smaller field, lesser-prize money races. What matters is the average price you are returned on your winners. You've caused me to look back, and so far as I can remember, since 1978 I've managed to back the winner 5 times from 43 races (1993 was a 'void' race and the 2020 running was cancelled due to Covid). My records weren't as detailed when I was working, but if I had staked £1 at SP on the five winners I would have returned £47.50, or a profit of £4.50. The average price of the five winners would have suggested a strike rate of 10.5% whereas my actual strike rate (5 from 43) was 11.6%. On such narrow margins does profit rest!

 

Yep, its about margins and obviously the better the horse the better the chance but its still a dodgy race for me (and I've had the winner a few times myself). Too many horses even whittled down mean too many variables. I'll nevertheless let everyone know the winner nearer the time...

 

Need a few winners at these prices. £3.20 for a 330ml can of pop anyone?

 

Morning all, i'm going for these two 16.05, Time Leader, 16.40, Unexpected Party, good luck everyone

 

I'll be cheering on the protestors.

 

That were to blame for unsettling the horses that were killed last year. Well done.

 

Well that's certainly one way of looking at it. Personally I'd blame the people who make them jump over dangerous fences.